Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

The size of Australia. Vast expanses of low population with few places to charge. It's even worse than Canada logistically.

But that's the old chicken or egg question. If those places are vast and empty, does anyone ever really go there? I think the answer is "no". Charging networks just need to be 2 hours from your destination (cabin, home etc.) to make EVs work. You just need enough juice to leave civilization and make it to your home to charge.

We don't have coverage in North Dakota either, but nobody goes there so it's not a big problem.

 

[Lessmog]

It's an important first step though, the context is that VW threatened to quit their shared lobbying group, the "VDA". The CEOs of VW, BMW and Daimler have now agreed to send to the VDA a new position paper that directs their lobbying efforts. Key points are going to be that:

• fuel cell technologies are dead
• BEVs are the future
• BEVs are the ONLY technology that are able to meet EU emissions standards

I.e. this excludes hybrids too to the best of my knowledge (although hybrids are not explicitly mentioned) - so it's a big step forward.

VW is also demanding for significant new EV incentives for BEVs:

VW will deutliche Änderungen an Kaufprämie für E-Autos - electrive.net​

While the VDA probably won't be lobbying for those incentives, just yet - this new position means they won't be lobbying against it either, which is important.

I.e. the background is that ICE makers want EV incentives from Germany so that they are able to build EVs profitably and are able to weather the ICE->EV transition.

Unless there's some underhanded way to exclude Tesla, those EV incentives should help Tesla too.

Re: your last sentence -- Can we not take it for granted there will be some such underhanded way?
Still, very informative and somewhat encouraging news! Thanks for your analysis, again.

 

[KarenRei]

Sure did. Now, before you get too excited, it wasn't an 'always' thing. I noticed what I am pretty sure was AP taking that sort of action twice over ~475 miles yesterday. It also happily hit several potholes. But it's a start.



Pretty much my thoughts. As a prospective X owner, all I really want is a few simple changes--phone key, the 3's turn signal stalk (which auto-resets its position), mirror/steering controls matching the 3 (funny how antiquated side mirror adjustment buttons seem now), and the 250 kW max Supercharger rate. A mild range increase to hit the magic 300 would be nice.

If they do those things, I'm probably in.

What do you think of the reported leak last year of a refresh scheduled for this year? Bezel-free horizontal screens, etc.

Image with the steering wheel and screen removed (e.g. to see the secondary screen better)

Fwed seemed convinced of its authenticity, but who knows.

 

[Nocturnal]

That’s actually from CA govt.

It is? Often these things are funded by the utility itself as part of demand leveling programs.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Which is why the transition is so urgent for ICE makers - something that many don't seem yet to have comprehended. Switching to EV mass production is incredibly expensive (and only gets more expensive as the scales for what's "competitive" keep rising)... yet as your ICE sales collapse, you have to start writing off ICE production assets (particularly in rapidly-going-electric markets like China). This can leave you unable to borrow against said assets and with debts/obligations that you can no longer pay off, at the same time your revenue is greatly reduced. It's a death-spiral.

That a reason I really like Nissan's move with serial hybrids. They can scale other EV drivetrain components no matter what happens with overall battery supply.

 

[Lessmog]

That's tricky though because the instructions on household CO detectors say to be sure not to use them around cars. I assume that's because the detection is only good for a few samples before requiring replacement.

Like the canary in the coal mine, the sensors are too sensitive?

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

What do you think of the reported leak last year of a refresh scheduled for this year? Bezel-free horizontal screens, etc.

Image with the steering wheel and screen removed (e.g. to see the secondary screen better)

Fwed seemed convinced of its authenticity, but who knows.

This would be a good update. One of my (many) favorite things about driving my wife’s Model 3 is I don’t have to lean forward to reach the screen. It’s a small thing but makes a big difference.

 

[KarenRei]

This would be a good update. One of my (many) favorite things about driving my wife’s Model 3 is I don’t have to lean forward to reach the screen. It’s a small thing but makes a big difference.

I like how it combines the "best of both words" - you get a Model 3-style screen (but with a more "premium" look to it), and a behind-the-wheel screen, so those who've been hesitant about the Model 3 for not having that second screen have nothing to complain about.

Even if it turns out that Fwed was wrong and that's not an actual design-intent concept, I'd hope Tesla would go for something like that regardless.

 

[Fact Checking]

The road to the Hopper is closed for test firing, and will remain closed for the next several hours. Hopper has been spotted venting

Note that just like with Grasshopper, chances are high that the first "hop" will just be a foot or so, and of super short duration:

Based on that they can carefully look at the log of hundreds of sensors to filter for anomalies, before the next hop is done.

I don't think the Raptor has been test fired in a vertical position yet, which is another significant milestone. The direction of gravity has an effect on rocket engine startup sequences, and their Raptor test stand is horizontal.

They absolutely cannot afford to lose the Starhopper, so they'll approach this with painstaking care.

 

[neroden]

So is this 14% a reflection of a Tesla stock action or tendering disinterest?

In my personal opinion, the drop in MXWL (which is half-recovered) is entirely due to the extension of the tender deadline.

 

[KarenRei]

Note that just like with Grasshopper, chances are high that the first "hop" will just be a foot or so, and of super short duration:

Based on that they can carefully look at the log of hundreds of sensors to filter for anomalies, before the next hop is done.

They absolutely cannot afford to lose the Starhopper.

Sure they can afford to lose it. They built it fast and already have a new one under construction

BTW, it appears to be lashed down (image credit: Boca Chica Gal):

 

[mongo]

Sure they can afford to lose it. They built it fast and already have a new one under construction

BTW, it appears to be lashed down (image credit: Boca Chica Gal):

Good idea for the first firing of a new engine on a new platform.

 

[Fact Checking]

Sure they can afford to lose it. They built it fast and already have a new one under construction

On a nasty RUD they'll lose weeks if not months.

 

[neroden]

the JPM analyst recommendation for Put being under priced seems fishy. After that recommendation the stock fell and then it recovered for literally no material news.

Perhaps their options trading desk sold a lot of put in the last two days.

Another likely case of stock manipulation.

 

[GregRF]

What do you think of the reported leak last year of a refresh scheduled for this year? Bezel-free horizontal screens, etc.

Image with the steering wheel and screen removed (e.g. to see the secondary screen better)

Fwed seemed convinced of its authenticity, but who knows.

At the time of that article they also stated the interior refresh wasn't due until Q3 '19.

 

[BornToFly]

On 20 degree days I was averaging 500-600Wh/mi. This is on chill+range mode.

Is your car parked outside? My car is in a garage and I lose less then 20% during the winter in Utah.

 

[mongo]

On a nasty RUD they'll lose weeks if not months.

But they are ahead of their carbon fiber build schedule...

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

I like how it combines the "best of both words" - you get a Model 3-style screen (but with a more "premium" look to it), and a behind-the-wheel screen, so those who've been hesitant about the Model 3 for not having that second screen have nothing to complain about.

Even if it turns out that Fwed was wrong and that's not an actual design-intent concept, I'd hope Tesla would go for something like that regardless.

I wonder if they’ve considered replacing the 2nd screen with a HUD? You only need one or two pieces of info in front of you. And it would be a cleaner look.

 

[jerry33]

At the time of that article they also stated the interior refresh wasn't due until Q3 '19.

If you can't see the rear camera and map at the same time, it isn't good.

 

[Nocturnal]

I like how it combines the "best of both words" - you get a Model 3-style screen (but with a more "premium" look to it), and a behind-the-wheel screen, so those who've been hesitant about the Model 3 for not having that second screen have nothing to complain about.

Even if it turns out that Fwed was wrong and that's not an actual design-intent concept, I'd hope Tesla would go for something like that regardless.

Yeah, a small customizable screen behind the wheel will make people who are worried about the big screen feel better.