Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ggr]

To the two who disagreed with my post and to you, who explained yourself I offer the explanation that to me, living in the Southern hemisphere, to invert my own weather when this is the very beginning of Fall, only one day ago, is potential proof that I am senile or worse. I have deleted my ridiculous error.

I (as moderator) almost edited your post for you, having just returned from Australia on a family/work visit, and suffering the same kind of confusion. But then I figured it was an abuse of privilege and didn't do it. Anyway, I know exactly what you're feeling.

 

[Heimdallr]

Tesla says Chinese startup Xpeng stole Autopilot source code through former employee (Electrek)

Alternate link (Reuters)

Seems that this happens quite a bit...

 

[Unpilot]

Yeah it's all true: all European Tesla vehicles are sold out for Q1 delivery: European configurator is now showing April delivery for Model 3 and May for S/X.

I suspect there might still be fleet units available in Q1: test drive and show room units, or units where the new owner couldn't take delivery - but these would be highly location dependent.

But demand...there is no demand...Tesla has demand problem.

This is all my "news" feed shows....also so words like "cliff" and "wall".

 

[jbcarioca]

Here you go: The Sueddeutsche Zeitung broke this first, they are reputable (also ref. e.g. their work in the Panama Papers):

VW drängt auf drastische Änderungen bei E-Auto-Förderung


...

This is very interesting. It is understandable that VAG still wants to accentuate subsidies to lower priced vehicles since they have disadvantages in price competition in BEV's in lower price points vs Chinese producers, further accentuated by their potential weakness is China also. Were they to succeed in their chosen policy it would be fair to expect the myriad small car and truck electric makers presently producing to gain more space, even the PSA ones.

Anyway numerous cities across Europe already are restricting ICE and have plans to prohibit ICE. Predominately vehicles normally operated within large cities tend to be smaller and cheaper anyway, the VW plan would simply accentuate that.

On the face of this it seems to abdicate VW small vehicle position. So, why debate this solution, from their perspective?
If they're investing 15 Billion Euros in their Chinese developments across several interrelated subjects, is that a factor?

VW agrees Chinese cooperation on e-mobility, autonomous driving | Reuters

For some time I have thought VAG would cede the real low end to Chinese developed and/or manufactured solutions. Their publicly revealed BEV platform solutions really do not much cover the sub-20,000 Euro market but are concentrated just above that where VW/Skoda/Seat have high volume and strong positions. Their plan could reinforce their strength.

In the higher market positions heavy subsidies simply will not happen, so this idea would act to reinforce what might well be political reality anyway.

From a Tesla perspective this would be positive, since there would be ubiquitous urban charging so Tesla could continue to concentrate on longer range. Anything that accelerates BEV adoption is a big plus for TSLA.

 

[neroden]

Fair points. To anyone looking to get a clearer picture of winter consumption, I recommend signing up for teslafi and looking at your 'temperature efficiency' over time. My daily commute is less than 5 miles one way, and I was getting terrible results (46% of rated efficiency) at 20° F. However, if I look only at drives longer than 10 miles, I get close to 70% efficiency at the same temperatures. I'm sure things would be better on an actual trip of 100 miles or more.

P.S. Unfortunately, that still wasn't enough to convince my wife that it's OK to take the Model 3 for a day trip to a ski area 90 miles away.

70% is about right. So:

If you have a rated range of 256 miles or more (MR or LR), then yes, it's definitely OK to take the Model 3 for a day trip to a ski area 90 miles away.

If you got SR or SR+, then it should be OK as long as the temperature is above 20 F, or if you can recharge at the ski area.

 

[AlMc]

On 20 degree days I was averaging 500-600Wh/mi. This is on chill+range mode.

Is your car parked outside? My car is in a garage and I lose less then 20% during the winter in Utah.

I have a SP85D that I put snow tires (21 Sotozeroes) and drive it like most who have a 'P' do and I have never exceeded 500, even with a cold battery. ( We do get several/many winter days in Delaware where I see 20 F or below ). I usually 'average' with the winter set on..about 350...In the summer/warmer weather with performance tires...average about 295.

One data point.

 

[Remus]

On 20 degree days I was averaging 500-600Wh/mi. This is on chill+range mode.

interesting to know how many miles do you drive per trip and how far apart those trips are.
I live in northern CA with very mild weather. in a chilly morning around 40F I send my kid and neighbor's kids to school, 5 minutes waiting for all kids to show up, then 2.5 mile to the school, it's about 600wh per mile.

 

[anthonyj]

Is your car parked outside? My car is in a garage and I lose less then 20% during the winter in Utah.

I keep my car in my driveway. I wish there was a way to auto preheat at a certain time. I don’t think the SR will catch on in the northeast, especially with no AWD. Thankfully NJ has pretty high income and we don’t have sales tax on EVs, so LR is still a steal. Still seeing a ton more S/X rather than 3s in my area. Would be great to have a MR AWD version

 

[neroden]

Recently I do wonder what the used/cheap market will look like though. People that are buying used cars for $5k or $500 probably won't have access to charge at home

Actually, many of them will. They'll have 110V 15 amp.

People who buy cheap cars are often renters *in houses* or in *one-story* apartment buildings -- living in sprawlsville. Most of these have outdoor 110 outlets, and I know people who've thrown extension cords out the window.

You're right that there's another group who don't have parking spaces next to their apartments.

 

[ZachF]

Another likely case of stock manipulation.

But since it's done by NY/WS guys that hire former SEC employees nothing will be done...

 

[KarenRei]

Good pics of Semi's cabin, including after lots of wear-and-tear in road testing:

Tesla Semi cockpit details revealed in clearest interior pictures yet

There's apparently a third pedal in there (speculation is that it's a mechanical parking brake).

 

[neroden]

But that's the old chicken or egg question. If those places are vast and empty, does anyone ever really go there? I think the answer is "no". Charging networks just need to be 2 hours from your destination (cabin, home etc.) to make EVs work. You just need enough juice to leave civilization and make it to your home to charge.

We don't have coverage in North Dakota either, but nobody goes there so it's not a big problem.

I have been trying to visit my friend in North Dakota for a while now...

The thing is, all you need for the empty spaces is Superchargers. That's it. You don't need a big delivery center, a big service center, stores, none of that... the people who live in those areas are used to going some distance to buy cars and get them repaired. Tesla can run Superchargers across the Nullarbor, and probably will; there's enough room to make them fully solar/battery powered.

 

[Antares Nebula]

I'm glad that they didn't raise the SR+ price too much. 37,500 is the sweet spot, considering people may buy options, including the high margin Autopilot options. It's a no brainer to get this over the base 35k. The ASP and margins on the SR+ with options should be pretty good, and will likely be the bread and butter for Tesla.

 

[KarenRei]

Actually, many of them will. They'll have 110V 15 amp.

People who buy cheap cars are often renters *in houses* or in *one-story* apartment buildings -- living in sprawlsville. Most of these have outdoor 110 outlets, and I know people who've thrown extension cords out the window.

You're right that there's another group who don't have parking spaces next to their apartments.

The apartment issue is self-solving over time. If you're a landlord and it gets to the point where a meaningful percentage of the people in your area own or plan to an EV, you'll start to have to charge less for rent if there's no way to charge at your apartment. On the other hand, if you add charging access, you can charge more for rent. You could even add a pay charger if you wanted.

There's no single market penetration figure that will dictate "here is the point where almost everybody starts installing charging access", but I'd imagine at around 10-20% or so of your potential rental pool "owns or wants to own an EV" in a given area, landlords will start feeling the financial pressure to do at least a de minimis effort and have an outdoor socket installed.

 

[anthonyj]

I have a SP85D that I put snow tires (21 Sotozeroes) and drive it like most who have a 'P' do and I have never exceeded 500, even with a cold battery. ( We do get several/many winter days in Delaware where I see 20 F or below ). I usually 'average' with the winter set on..about 350...In the summer/warmer weather with performance tires...average about 295.

One data point.

interesting to know how many miles do you drive per trip and how far apart those trips are.
I live in northern CA with very mild weather. in a chilly morning around 40F I send my kid and neighbor's kids to school, 5 minutes waiting for all kids to show up, then 2.5 mile to the school, it's about 600wh per mile.

I drive about 5-15 miles at a time for business, multiple times a day. I’m averaging about 350wh/mi nowadays

 

[Fred42]

Just to give some color on the sales of S & X in Norway. Looking at 2018 sales data total vehicle sales in 2018 was 147k and 158k in 2017. Personal cars statistics in Norway includes SUVs. This is regular cars but not commercial vehicles (mostly vans and 2018 sales of those were 37k). Out of those commercial sales almost 2k was pure electric panelvans from Renault and Nissan.
Anyway Teslas sales last year of 8.5k cars purely S and X gave them an almost 6% market share of all cars. So last year was a very good year for them. Their cheapest car was not cheap and not small, even with the incentives.

So to a certain degree if you wanted a full size family car with easy road trip functionality it really was only Tesla S and X that was available. Now the 3 is a better size fit for those that don't need the size of the X, and you can save a lot with the 3. So essentially the X and S has been selling "too well" in Norway due to they being the only game in town.

Of course the SR will really open up the floodgates later this year. Not necissarily because it will sell well, but it will get people in the door (metaphorically speaking) and they will option themselves into 4WD and slightly more comfortable range etc. just like in the US.

March 2018 was 14400 cars, not Tesla but ALL cars (including 1699 Tesla's). If Tesla sells 4000 cars this March which seems very possible they should be around 20-30% of total sales this month. So yeah bad S and X sales seems a bit silly to consider when you alone has over 20% of the car market.

And as mentioned earlier today. NAF (our AAA) in their magazine gave a month ago the e-Golf (Norways most popular car model the last 10 years or so) 75 points. While the Model 3 tested this month got 83 points one of their highest points ever. Their only real complaint was too high wheel noise above 80km/h (though they did mentioned the excellent sound system that had the remedy).

TLDR; Things are going well for Tesla in Norway.

What's the status of getting Teslas repaired in Norway?

 

[Anstandswauwau]

What do you think of the reported leak last year of a refresh scheduled for this year? Bezel-free horizontal screens, etc.

Image with the steering wheel and screen removed (e.g. to see the secondary screen better)

Fwed seemed convinced of its authenticity, but who knows.

I can assure you, those renderings are 100% authentic and I'm pretty certain they were leaked by a Tesla employee, not a supplier.

By the way, the top and bottom one should date back to ~H1 2017, the middle one appears to be a previous iteration (cf. outdated UI + center console design).

 

[Dangerous Fish]

I keep my car in my driveway. I wish there was a way to auto preheat at a certain time.

Have you seen this thread? How To: Automate Preheating/Cooling, Google Play Music (or others) starting automatically, etc!

 

[neroden]

I don’t know, I think car companies are regretting their decision to wait to get into BEVs. They know they’re behind and investing in hybrids will put them further behind.

Nissan is apparently making big sales in Japan of the Note, a serial hybrid which can't plug in. *eyeroll* If they focus on this, they really will fall further behind.

 

[UncaNed]

Yeah, a small customizable screen behind the wheel will make people who are worried about the big screen feel better.

Drives me nuts that I can't customize a few things on model X small screen; notifications and turn signal lights up top, and a few little items I'd like to be notified about with mini icons...