Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ByeByeJohnny]

definitely.

although i think people posting "impressive walkdown" and "look at all that manipulation!!" posts literally any time the stock does anything other than go up is also somewhat redundant and low-value.

When there are significant changes I think it's useful with the occasional post about the share price. When reading the thread delayed a number of hours, as many do for whatever reason, it helps understand the 'mood', and type of posts, to know if we were going up or down at the time of post.

And when the price is posted every five minutes it's because the price is going up so it's a bit of a celebration that I don't really mind.

 

[Tslynk67]

definitely.

although i think people posting "impressive walkdown" and "look at all that manipulation!!" posts literally any time the stock does anything other than go up is also somewhat redundant and low-value.

I guess I'm guilty of that, so no comment

Any commentary that speculates to explain a price movement is helpful though

 

[Singuy]

Customers are never scalping dealers. If a dealer wants to part with a car with a $15k discount, it's because it still makes them more money than to keep it on the lot.

Is it really? We talk about razor thin margins legacy deals with. 15k discount means someone is losing money. Can't give a 35% discount and call their margins razor thin if they are still making money.

 

[Todd Burch]

>> Realistically perhaps closer to 35%.

Why only a half or a third? To leave a buffer for future?
That may be smart.

Traditionally Tesla recognizes rolling revenue like this conservatively. FSD won’t really be FSD for another few years probably, and I think they’ll spread recognition over this time. Would be happy if it’s sooner but I’m not expecting it.

 

[Todd Burch]

The general belief is that they have already recognized old FSD sales to around 50%. I think the latest note about this in the ER was probably 18 months or so ago. So probably still at that level. The $2 billion or whatever value on the books now is the remaining 50%

I think that would be AP or EAP revenue. No way would they have recognized 50% of FSD revenue before it’s even released to the public.

 

[Singuy]

I think that would be AP or EAP revenue. No way would they have recognized 50% of FSD revenue before it’s even released to the public.

Doesn't ap and eap falls under FSD? Before FSDs price hike, full recognition of eap is about 50% of FSDs revenue.

 

[wooter]

Is it really? We talk about razor thin margins legacy deals with. 15k discount means someone is losing money. Can't give a 35% discount and call their margins razor thin if they are still making money.

Not really on topic, but car dealers work on a multiple level bait and switch scheme. Part of the discount is already supplied by the importer or the car manufacturer, because getting a discount feels good for you as a customer. On top of that, you get baited with other discounts, so you will part with your previous car while they offer a low trade-in value. Then come the several option packs, warranty packs, insurances, financing, all to switch you while baiting on the discount of the car.

Also, you're not just handling one party: the dealer. There are commissions for all of those warranties, insurances, financing deals that the salespeople can earn. So even if it looks that the dealer has a low margin, he and his salespeople are making bank. And once you've bought your car, you need to come in for 5K service appointments which generates the real income for the dealer.

The only real power a customer has, is that they can go to another dealer to try to get a better deal. But if you're not walking in with a trade-in, and aren't getting any financing, leasing and warranty deals, you're not getting these amazing discounts.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

I think that would be AP or EAP revenue. No way would they have recognized 50% of FSD revenue before it’s even released to the public.

That's how the discussion was say two years ago. At some point we found out at an earnings call I think that they had recognized a further 10% or so from Zach I think. I think someone did the math backwards from whatever the believed revenue from FSD was and arrived at 50% left and it seemed accepted by all analysts (well ours at least, the main street ones have no clue).

Not sure why there would be much held back from AP or EAP. Aren't they considered fully functional? So all that's needed to hold back from there is to keep it up to date. Should be more like 5-10%.

 

[Singuy]

Not really on topic, but car dealers work on a multiple level bait and switch scheme. Part of the discount is already supplied by the importer or the car manufacturer, because getting a discount feels good for you as a customer. On top of that, you get baited with other discounts, so you will part with your previous car while they offer a low trade-in value. Then come the several option packs, warranty packs, insurances, financing, all to switch you while baiting on the discount of the car.

Also, you're not just handling one party: the dealer. There are commissions for all of those warranties, insurances, financing deals that the salespeople can earn. So even if it looks that the dealer has a low margin, he and his salespeople are making bank. And once you've bought your car, you need to come in for 5K service appointments which generates the real income for the dealer.

The only real power a customer has, is that they can go to another dealer to try to get a better deal. But if you're not walking in with a trade-in, and aren't getting any financing, leasing and warranty deals, you're not getting these amazing discounts.

I have never dealt with any discounts in which trade in are required. If you do have a trade in, it just gives them more opportunity to hose you.

Usually major discounts include meeting a bunch of criteria like loyal customer, veteran, finance through their banks, first responder, etc etc.

 

[JustMe]

It’s going to be another beautiful day

 

[Pezpunk]

this stock seems allergic to the 700s one way or the other.

 

[Discoducky]

1 Gordon = 20

https://twitter.com/x/status/1382294262323236864

(And knowing is half the battle)

 

[wooter]

Usually major discounts include meeting a bunch of criteria like loyal customer, veteran, finance through their banks, first responder, etc etc.

They've been very successful then. Financing through their bank returns the salesperson a large commission. Loyal customer, veteran, first responder are just marketing tactics. I know of manufacturers who gave the dealer a 30% discount MRSP, and the dealer happily sold those cars for 25% discount MRSP. And the customers felt good, because ho jolly they got 25% for being a loyal customer!

 

[Mengy]

Wow, we hit $786 in pre-market already this morning. High volume too. Promising start to the day!

 

[StealthP3D]

Or maybe they unwind their synthetics pre-ER, spike the SP, sell 4/30 $900 cc's like they're going out of fashion, then naked short the hell out of $TSLA again on Tuesday 27th - create a "sell the news" event...

Strikes me as a very plausible and possible scenario, I'm almost banking on it

I need to learn the fine art of "almost" banking on something...

 

[StealthP3D]

Customers are never scalping dealers. If a dealer wants to part with a car with a $15k discount, it's because it still makes them more money than to keep it on the lot.

Please don't shatter my beautiful world view. Are you saying dealers are not selling Bolts for $15K under MSRP because they love their customers and want to show them some appreciation?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Guy, I know you're all excited about the premarket rise, but I'm seeing some warning signs. TSLA does NOT appear on CNBC's "biggest movers in the premarket" list, so please be wary of investing.

I would like to point out that Occidental Petroleum IS in fact on that list and was just today given an analyst upgrade from "neutral" to "buy".

OXY has depreciated over 20% since early March (vs. XOP down 15%-20%) and reflects approximately 30% equity value upside, thus meriting an upgrade from Neutral to Buy,” the firm said in a note to clients.​

Some might say investment in oil is an investment in stranded assets and that OXY is more leveraged than just about any other major oil stock, but I think we need to look into this. CNBC always points me in the right direction when it comes to investments.

 

[Don TLR]

I actually see this as delaying until Monday, not moving it up. They have been moving towards reporting on the third Wednesday which would have been the 21st. (So they delayed this one by 3 business days.)

SpaceX has the Crew-2 launch on the 22nd so maybe that has something to do with the date change?

 

[Knightshade]

Some was already recognized with smart summon. Someone here will know.

It's complicated.

Especially since Tesla has changed what they were actually selling a few times.

For example the specific things promised to folks who bought before ~March/April 2019 are different than what was promised to those who bought after.

Some at the time even speculated the change was made specifically because it made it easier to recognize FSD revenue--- since prior to that, FSD was essentially a vague promise of at least L4 (arguably 5) that had had 0% delivered for 3-5k (all delivered features were in EAP, a seperate product- one that is fully delivered and should be recognizable at 100% of revenue).

While "new" FSD was a specific listed set of features for 6-10k- the majority of which HAD already been delivered (since they were transferred from EAP, no longer sold- plus the stop sign/light recognition they did eventually deliver as the first "exclusive" FSD feature- and finally city street driving as the last on that promised list allegedly coming soon)

For the post 3/19 buyers, FSD is "feature complete" once L2 city streets is delivered-- not so for those who bought it before the change.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

SpaceX has the Crew-2 launch on the 22nd so maybe that has something to do with the date change?

You might be on to something. Tesla would probably have chosen Wednesday April 21 for the Q1 call, but Elon is likely busy with the preparations for that SpaceX launch the next day. Postponing to Wednesday April 28 would cause a long delay and maybe even send a wrong message to the market, so maybe that's why they chose the earliest possible alternative, Monday April 26.