Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Antares Nebula]

Estimated delivery dates are all down from Tesla's website. Suspense!

Don't see that either.

??

 

[JRP3]

Trip Chowdry is always wrong. Always has been. They don’t call him Trippin’ Trip for nothing.

He’s just wrong in the other direction now.

Trip ate the brown acid.

 

[gringotuanis]

I think we’re suffering from Schroedinger valuation. Both over and undervalued until it’s confirmed we’re one or the other. Tesla has to be a zero to be undervalued, with brand leadership, technology leadership and producing leadership they need to be destroyed to fail.
The problem for at least some of Wall Street and the general investment community is that stability is seen as a strength. Tesla has made too many unforced errors and should have failed by now. If you are a bull you see this willingness to fail as the key to Tesla’s innovation gap. No other brand will throw out a new strategy and walk away from it with Tesla’s speed and complete commitment. The machine that built the machine replaced the the Sprung tent and humans that assembled the cars. Most anyone else would have failed with that mistake. I’d guess Tesla will continue to make more mistakes than any other 20, 30 or 50 billion dollar company. Maybe as a 200 billion dollar company they’ll pull in their horns a bit, start paying dividends and become more process oriented. In the meantime the risk premium will remain, and the street will mis price Tesla. The mis-pricing should be from a higher base next year. They’ll exit 2019 at a 500,000 production rate and likely close to 1 million end of 2020 and that is plus some expensive trucks and Roadsters.
Anyhow, there will be a trigger. The sun will come back out and the shorts will scurry to the darkness. Could be the 15th, or December 2020, but it will happen.

Overall I like this particular thread, but Tesla could sure be super innovative and not make such dumb errors. This high correlation between the two is not necessary. Closing the stores and 24 hrs later reversing it just sounds like stupidity or a chicken with it's head cut off. Be innovative, and use your brain too Tesla!

 

[Antares Nebula]

Gonna see some serious FUD this week to keep pps down before the Y unveil Thursday.

I will be buying weekly options.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

If you believe Bloomberg's tracker numbers, and I am reading the data correctly, so far this quarter they have produced 217,762-155,663=62,099 units. It also claims they are producing about 5750 a week, so that would be another 17,250. That means Bloomberg is projecting about 80K Model 3s produced this quarter.

 

[bhtooefr]

Oh, a quick analysis of the hero image from the Model Y teaser. Note that this could be incredibly erroneous depending on perspective.

Width from the widest point of the fenders is 995 pixels, and height from the tires to the center of the roof is 782 pixels. That's an aspect ratio of about 1.272.

A Model 3 without mirrors is 1849 mm wide, 1443 mm tall, for an aspect ratio of 1.281.

So, let's say the Model Y is 10% larger.

That would imply that the Model Y is 1932 mm wide, 1519 mm tall. That would put it in the "not really a crossover" class that the Germans are chasing right now.

...mind you, I suspect there's some sort of perspective distortion making my numbers wrong, and it's taller than that. But...

(If it's the same width as the Model 3, it'd be 1587 mm tall.)

 

[TNEVol]

Wow. Bulls are really pessimistic about Q1 deliveries, IMHO. Can't imagine the bear expectations!

OT but after no observations of M3 transport east on I-40 after January 11 we have now seen several days with observations beginning last week and two days of 4 trucks in a 20 minute drive. I am ready to believe that US deliveries have ramped up as expected. However I expected a decline in international deliveries per Tesla's normal cadence. Has that changed and are ships still being filled even though end of qtr deliveries especially to Europe by the end of the qtr are unlikely? I think this one-time inventory cost may be a critical feature of Q1 but will be positive thereafter.

 

[jerry33]

(Note that most of these automated services are rubber-tired for various reasons...

The big reason for rubber tires is construction cost. Subways on rubber tires can climb an eight percent grade rather than the four percent grade steel wheels can negotiate. Also only one of the two wheel sets needs to be powered, saving weight and cost.

 

[Zaxxon]

FWIW, 2019.5.15 (Sentry, Dog, LR RWD added range, all 3s increased power) is finally rolling wide tonight per TeslaFi.

 

[TNEVol]

One note here: there are side effects to this transition that inherently will speed it up. As fewer gas cars exist, gas stations and gas companies will start having more difficulties and will start disappearing(Shell is trying to avoid this by installing chargers at their gas stations, but such chargers are niche for EV’s since most people can charge at home). As that happens, you now have a similar situation for gas cars as there was 5-10 years ago for EVs in terms of “charging spots”. With the primary exception that gas cars can’t be “charged” at home.

People won’t be able to run their cars anymore, and will be forced into buying EV(or going without a car until they can get an EV). I see your 7% reduction happening for a little while and then the entire bottom falls out at once, when the infrastructure gas cars rely on becomes untenable.

OT forgive me but I remember annual car trips to Florida in late 50s. We had to plan in advance where to get gas because they might be closed on Sunday or after 5pm and what if s new owner changed hours. My first experience with my S reminded my of these days. As this returns for ICE as neighborhood stations continue to close there will be a dramatic effect on ICE.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Where will new vehicles be delivered now. Obviously service centres are being expanded and/or increased. Is the plan to deliver all vehicles at service centres.

Don’t laugh at this question but were cars ever delivered at stores or were they always delivered at service centres.

If we buy we’ll probably select home drivers as we are 5 hours from a service centre. (Vancouver).

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Investors should not think the upcoming version of iPhone 3 is going to be as successful as iPhone 2.0 because it will have solid competition from Palm Pre, developed by ex-Apple designer Jon Rubinstein.

Palm Pre has a superior operating system than iPhone. It runs on a better network — Sprint CDMA — versus iPhone which runs on GSM.

-- Trip Chowdhry, 2009

iPhone 3 was my first smartphone. That quote was about the time iphones went mainstream. I’ll interpret his pessimism as a sign model 3 sales are about to take off.

 

[AZRI11]

Trip ate the brown acid.

Didn't take wavy gravy's advice

 

[TNEVol]

It's hard to think you could be so sentimental about MS this soon but I thought about trading my 6 yr old MS P85 in on a P3D. My wife has a 3 and I would benefit from features especially safety. However Tesla only offered me 18k on my P85 (114k miles) and I realized that I don't like the M3 as well for mostly irrational reasons (looks, size and comfort). 18k seemed to be an insult to me and my car (lol) so I said no. I guess it will mostly stay in the garage like some others Camaros and Mustangs. Even though I didn't buy again this is a brand enhancement decision IMO.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

OT forgive me but I remember annual car trips to Florida in late 50s. We had to plan in advance where to get gas because they might be closed on Sunday or after 5pm and what if s new owner changed hours. My first experience with my S reminded my of these days. As this returns for ICE as neighborhood stations continue to close there will be a dramatic effect on ICE.

Gas stations are now convenience stores. When I'm filling my cars, I might see more cars coming to the convenience store than to fill up.

I live in a small city. We have _7_ gas stations.
The towns around us have another 5 together.
I might be missing one or two.

You would need a serious collapse of ICEVs to see any kind of significant impact on the convenience of filling, especially in an age of GPS and mobile Internet that tell you where the gas stations are.

 

[EVNow]

Where will new vehicles be delivered now. Obviously service centres are being expanded and/or increased. Is the plan to deliver all vehicles at service centres.

Don’t laugh at this question but were cars ever delivered at stores or were they always delivered at service centres.

If we buy we’ll probably select home drivers as we are 5 hours from a service centre. (Vancouver).

Service center. They need someone to prep the car and deliver it. Also they have delivery specialists for the job.

 

[Beltsbear]

Gas stations are now convenience stores. When I'm filling my cars, I might see more cars coming to the convenience store than to fill up.

I live in a small city. We have _7_ gas stations.
The towns around us have another 5 together.
I might be missing one or two.

You would need a serious collapse of ICEVs to see any kind of significant impact on the convenience of filling, especially in an age of GPS and mobile Internet that tell you where the gas stations are.

Agreed. With some cars having 600 mile range only a high price for gas would make a difference. 2/3 of all gas stations could close and for 90% of drivers there would be no issue. Double the price of gas and ice will die.

 

[dc_h]

OT but after no observations of M3 transport east on I-40 after January 11 we have now seen several days with observations beginning last week and two days of 4 trucks in a 20 minute drive. I am ready to believe that US deliveries have ramped up as expected. However I expected a decline in international deliveries per Tesla's normal cadence. Has that changed and are ships still being filled even though end of qtr deliveries especially to Europe by the end of the qtr are unlikely? I think this one-time inventory cost may be a critical feature of Q1 but will be positive thereafter.

SFO pier 80 is apparently empty, so all deliveries are now for the US and Canada.

 

[anthonyj]

When will we learn more details about the SEC? Tomorrow?

 

[Nathan]

Anthonyj
Is there a reason that you have a tendency to largely focus on the negative?
Im not conspiratorial by nature but Ive been reading your posts for a # of weeks
and there seems to be a pattern of reporting or emphasizing bad news.
Would you mind backing up your claim that you are a serious investor in Tesla?
By that I mean would you mind posting your stock purchases minus any important or personal information?

Thanks and sorry if I've read you wrong.