Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Right_Said_Fred]

CNBC stock chart shows after hour trade volume of 7,379,896 at 4PM, 5,253,1146 at 4:02PM, and 5,252,348 at 4:27PM. That's over 17 million shares. I wonder if perhaps some $600 call option holders executed. Volume of those calls were 120,167 today. If purchased today with intent to execute then that would certainly be a good way to get tens of millions of shares with almost no impact to the share price during market hours.

TSLA: Tesla Inc - Stock Price, Quote and News - CNBC

The chart you posted shows 921k shares for AH volume, not 17 mln.

 

[Curt Renz]

WSJ - 13 minutes ago: WSJ News Exclusive | About 150 U.S. Cadillac Dealers to Exit Brand, Rather Than Sell Electric Cars.

Excerpt:

About 150 General Motors Co. dealers have decided to part ways with Cadillac, rather than invest in costly upgrades required to sell electric cars, according to people familiar with the plans, indicating some retailers are skeptical about making the pivot to battery-powered vehicles.

GM recently gave Cadillac dealers a choice: Accept a buyout offer to exit the brand or spend roughly $200,000 on dealership upgrades -- including charging stations and repair tools -- to get their stores ready to sell electric vehicles, these people said.

The buyout offers ranged from around $300,000 to more than $1 million, the people familiar with the effort added. About 17% of Cadillac's 880 U.S. dealerships agreed to take the offer to end their franchise agreements for the luxury brand, these people said.

I didn't realize this has been developing for several months. Below is a September video from an EV skeptic who advises dealerships.

 

[jw934]

In the chart you posted it says 921k shares for AH volume, not 17 million.

Yes, true. But if you click on the CNBC link, then put the cursor on to those minutes, you can see the screen pop showing the volume during that minute. That is what I quoted.

 

[Tim S]

I wonder if some Big Dawg knows something? There is something interesting going on for sure. See how volume picks up 5 mins before the close
View attachment 614545

It wasn't just TSLA. The whole market jumped in the last 15 minutes. Maybe on stimulus hopes?

 

[dl003]

Looks like someone specifically wanted to take shares from MMs, forcing delta hedging early next week. This is dirty.

 

[Tslynk67]

A reason alluded to, but not directly stated or explored, is that car insurance is a low margin / high competition business. That 1% underwriting profit is a good indicator of that - actual profits come from investment of the float (and understanding this concept in more detail is a good reason to be reading Buffet's Annual Letter to Shareholders - I've been reading them for a couple of decades now, and they're all available on the Berkshire investors site).

The problem with a 1% underwriting profit of course is that is an aggregate value over the industry, over the years. Some years are better, some are worse.


That thin margin is also our protection as car owners. An insurance company that is badly misplacing Tesla car insurance to the high side will earn some incremental underwriting profit, and will lose business to other companies that aren't.

One of Geico's strategies, talked about 1 year by Buffett, was to make their premiums easy to see, and to keep them low (which puts heavy emphasis on their ability to price correctly). The way they see it, it's a win either way. Showing lower premiums will bring in customers. Accurate pricing of those contracts at low prices, where the customer goes elsewhere even cheaper, will be losing contracts for their competition.


That doesn't mean that Tesla can't develop a lower priced insurance using superior information at the individual consumer level and their individual driving habits. Only that I don't see it as a no-brainer (mostly because the loss of privacy will be an impediment for many potential consumers).

Then again, I think I'm personally closer to $1200/year on our Model X insurance with State Farm, partially due to having our entire collection of insurance coverage with State Farm. So maybe I'm just happy with the rates we're getting, and don't feel a need to go looking for something better.

That's a very erudite post, but you lost me at 'aggregate'...

Bullish close, "Power to the people!"

 

[db93]

Did my small part to contribute to Q4 Will be giving these out as Christmas gifts to friends/family that are curious about Tesla

View attachment 614510

Friend request sent

 

[Tslynk67]

Toilet boy with some friday FUD:

View attachment 614508

That's right, because Elon's always looking for the moment to offload a few $b of equities, right?

 

[generalenthu]

I think the move towards close was a sign of a big fish attempting to nibble, without moving the market. Typically, they do this by placing a market on close order.

I am no trading mechanics expert, but per my understanding, NYSE starts publishing the imbalance number for the closing auction at 3:50 pm. This looks at the difference between buy-on-close and sell-on-close numbers, and the trading in the last few minutes tends to be dominated by this. NASDAQ does the same starting at 3:55 pm.

I don't see the big after hours trades in my IBKR or TD accounts. In any case, I suppose this bodes well for next week.

 

[keydiver]

TSLA +1.0%

An all-time closing high for my 75th birthday present

I turned 62 today. December 4 must be a great day!

 

[WattsHappening]

Looks like someone specifically wanted to take shares from MMs, forcing delta hedging early next week. This is dirty.

Can you elaborate and edjumacate me a bit?

 

[Curt Renz]

Steve Lehto - today:

 

[M|S|M MYP]

That's right, because Elon's always looking for the moment to offload a few $b of equities, right?

LOL...Elon is the cover boy for hold your chairs forever and ever and ever

 

[dl003]

Can you elaborate and edjumacate me a bit?

Whoever pumping TSLA up AH are doing it just so that it forces MMs to have their shares called away or sell the shares just a wee bit under $600. When you take shares from MMs, they have to buy them back on Monday to delta hedge the calls they sold that are still outstanding. When you have someone trying to pump the stock with the aid of MMs, you have a massive rally ahead. We started today with 19.3k 600 calls and its volume today was 120k. If that resulted in a net purchase and if all of those got exercised in the AH, MMs would start Monday with a minimum of 2M share deficit. Fun times ahead.

 

[Tslynk67]

Tesla mentioned in this IBD story published about an hour ago...

Dow Rallies As Pelosi Sees Stimulus 'Momentum'

""Leaderboard stock Tesla rallied after initially losing ground. However it's barely positive. It remains extended from a 466 buy point after breaking out of a cup-with-handle base.

Tesla has a best possible IBD Composite Rating of 99. The stock is up more than 600% so far in 2020"

Sorry, I ran that through Google Translate and it came up with a 501

 

[Paul_SF]

I turned 62 today. December 4 must be a great day!

Happy Birthday!

 

[keydiver]

I didn't realize this has been developing for several months. Below is a September video from an EV skeptic who advises dealerships.

"Electrical Cadillacs" I just emailed my cousin who is the head tech at a Cadillac dealership in PA. I asked if his dealership is going in on EV's or bailing. His answer will be interesting.

 

[jw934]

Whoever pumping TSLA up AH are doing it just so that it forces MMs to have their shares called away or sell the shares just a wee bit under $600. When you take shares from MMs, they have to buy them back on Monday to delta hedge the calls they sold that are still outstanding. When you have someone trying to pump the stock with the aid of MMs, you have a massive rally ahead. We started today with 19.3k 600 calls and its volume today was 120k. If that resulted in a net purchase and if all of those got exercised in the AH, MMs will start Monday with a minimum of 2M share deficit. Fun times ahead.

Somebody bought 10,000 $600 call options during the final minutes before the close. Anybody who bought or held it at 5 cents through 3:50PM could have sold them for 45 cents at 3:56PM. TSLA201204C00600000 (TSLA201204C00600000) Interactive Stock Chart - Yahoo Finance

 

[dl003]

Somebody bought 10,000 $600 call options during the final minutes before the close. Anybody who bought or held it at 5 cents through 3:50PM could have sold them for 45 cents at 3:56PM. TSLA201204C00600000 (TSLA201204C00600000) Interactive Stock Chart - Yahoo FinanceView attachment 614586

I doubt that's what they did, taking profit on the calls instead of exercising them AH. More like they knew or thought Monday was going to be explosive and didn't mind locking in a ton of shares at 600 today. Whoever able to make it go up like that wouldn't do it for a measly $400k gain.

 

[Tslynk67]

I wonder if some Big Dawg knows something? There is something interesting going on for sure. See how volume picks up 5 mins before the close
View attachment 614545

Dang, you're right, I've never seen that before