Volker.Berlin
Member
Actually, Tesla seems to be planning on selling 10x as many units of GenIII as of Model S -- in the order of 200k/y.
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CyberDutchie
Active Member
Interesting article, is there an English version available? My German language skills are a bit rusty...
Norbert
TSLA will win
Tesla is estimating the annual demand in the US at 10k - 15k. Europe and Asia each 10k+, for a total of 30k - 39k. 2013 might be higher, in the US, due to the pre-existing waiting list.
Who knows, maybe they will sell 20k in the US alone.
Just to clarify: Elon Musk mentioned 200k/y in three to four years for Model S, X and Gen III (interview with CNN). He was more likely implying that in three to four years, Model S and X production could reach maximum capacity, i.e. 100k/y. The remaining 100k/y is likely a planned capacity of Gen III production (5 day, 1 shift operation).
This is consistent with what I remember Gilbert Passin, Tesla manufacturing VP, said about capacity of the Tesla Palo Alto plant: Model S/X - 100k/y, total capacity of the plant - 500K/y, i.e. Gen III platform capacity is 400k/y
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These projections came from Elon Musk speaking during the Q4 2013 call. At approximately 18min45sec mark, talking about Tesla internal projections for 2014: 10-15k for North America, 10k for Europe and 10-15 for Asia. Later during the call EM put projected demand for Model X at 70% of the Model S demand.
The totals:
2014: 30-40K
2015: 51-68K
I also feel that these are very conservative numbers. I predict that they will be close to 75k Model S/X in 2015 (i.e. they will be operating 3 shifts, 5 days per week)
Not just a translation, you will get my unrequested comments here, too. Zu manchen Punkten musste ich einfach meinen Senf dazu schreiben :biggrin:
I'm not sure here if he talks about the Roadster? Because for Model S, my impression is that many households acquired it as their primary car.manager magazin said:
Now the article has turned from reporting facts and opinions towards offering an opinion by itself. Could it be that the authors underestimate the speed & leanness of Tesla?manager magazin said:
They scaled production a 100x going from the Roadster to Model S, acquiring and retooling a factory in record time, all the way developing their first car in house. For a total of what, $700m? And this analyst throws doubt on Tesla's ability to scale another 10x. We'll see.manager magazin said:
manager magazin said:
This article could be a first wake up call for German car makers. But I'm sure it will go by mainly unnoticed.
They will awake one morning and find that their NA market share of premuim sedans is gone.
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Zzzz...
Member
This article could be a first wake up call for German car makers. But I'm sure it will go by mainly unnoticed.
Oh, I'm sure German automakers are watching Tesla closely.
And not only watching - but Porsche already introduced plugin Panamera... If not Tesla - it probably would not have happened. If Panamera had 50 miles all electric range and more powerful motor, it would had eaten a lot of Model S sales. But even as it is it will take away some "green oriented" customers from Tesla. And next generation might implement better electric drivetrain.
And what about Audi S6 - look at 0-60 performance of the latest generation. Right away taking away title of fastest sedan from Tesla. Yeah, may be not eco customers, but those who want most powerful/fastest sedan for around $100k will now go to Audi.
BMW and Benz are at the back sit for now(I don't count i3), but if they start loosing sales of premium sedans in North America - they will come up with powerful responses, IMO.
thanks for the analysis luvb2b, I found it clear and helpful.
Your tables show 2013 finishing fine.
As to out years, I agree with points of other posters... currently 75% reservations North America, ultimately Elon sees mix near term about 40% NA, (and I've heard him say ultimately pretty much an even split between NA, EU, Asia). So the shift from 25% demand outside NA to 60% is just starting now. My understanding is test drives are beginning in EU now, deliveries about July. Seems Asia is 6 months later. So if NA has a bit of a lull from very first early adapters and/or price increase at start of the year, turning up order flow in EU and Asia will offset. In time other catalysts for NA picking up will include: cars on the road/word of mouth growing, Superchargers greatly increased presence, and mainstream consumers getting to see the cars have longer track record (all suggested upthread in other posts).
I see other catalysts for growth in the next couple of months... Consumer Reports piece expected quite soon, and Elon's "5-part trilogy" we are in the midst of right now. While I think the reservations are there for 2013 and beyond, I think Elon and Tesla are not taking chances, and the four announcements running into the quarterly earnings announcement in May are no accident. I think they are getting out in front of the likely sensationalist doom/gloom articles some will choose to write when Q1 earnings call reflects the first time that reservations for S ever declined in a quarter (I'm mentally bracing for "Is Tesla following Fisker..." nonsense headlines). I suspect the Tesla plan behind the "trilogy" is both to pep up reservations by making the product more appealing, and to have a strong flow of encouraging announcements to help shake off any "sky is falling" articles that likely will show up after the earnings release. Confidence tends to breed confidence and doubt doubt, and this would seem even more so for a startup electric car company.
Your tables show 2013 finishing fine.
As to out years, I agree with points of other posters... currently 75% reservations North America, ultimately Elon sees mix near term about 40% NA, (and I've heard him say ultimately pretty much an even split between NA, EU, Asia). So the shift from 25% demand outside NA to 60% is just starting now. My understanding is test drives are beginning in EU now, deliveries about July. Seems Asia is 6 months later. So if NA has a bit of a lull from very first early adapters and/or price increase at start of the year, turning up order flow in EU and Asia will offset. In time other catalysts for NA picking up will include: cars on the road/word of mouth growing, Superchargers greatly increased presence, and mainstream consumers getting to see the cars have longer track record (all suggested upthread in other posts).
I see other catalysts for growth in the next couple of months... Consumer Reports piece expected quite soon, and Elon's "5-part trilogy" we are in the midst of right now. While I think the reservations are there for 2013 and beyond, I think Elon and Tesla are not taking chances, and the four announcements running into the quarterly earnings announcement in May are no accident. I think they are getting out in front of the likely sensationalist doom/gloom articles some will choose to write when Q1 earnings call reflects the first time that reservations for S ever declined in a quarter (I'm mentally bracing for "Is Tesla following Fisker..." nonsense headlines). I suspect the Tesla plan behind the "trilogy" is both to pep up reservations by making the product more appealing, and to have a strong flow of encouraging announcements to help shake off any "sky is falling" articles that likely will show up after the earnings release. Confidence tends to breed confidence and doubt doubt, and this would seem even more so for a startup electric car company.
I'll want to see the S6 and the MSP head-to-head before I believe that there's a gap. The MSP has more useful speed, I suspect.
CyberDutchie
Active Member
Thanks Volker, I couldn't really follow the Google translation--very poor.
What I find interesting about the article is that it starts out with Elon's quote that the Mercedes S-Class is one of the finest luxury sedans in the world, but then it goes on comparing Model S to the lesser Mercedes E-Class and BMW 5-series.
That in contrast to the recent blog posted here on TMC by CapitalistOppressor who compares Model S to Mercedes S-Class, BMW 6- and 7-series, etc. and correctly concludes that Tesla Model S already is the leading large luxury car brand in the US.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Surely the German auto makers (and also the Asian higher-end ones like Lexus, Infiniti and Acura) are following Tesla's success. I do think however that BMW, Audi and Mercedes may be a bit too comfortable and over-confident when it comes to their market share in Europe where they seem to think they are "untouchable". Historically this is more or less true, most US luxury cars (US cars period actually) have never had more than a tiny share of the market in modern times (Ford being the exception) and while Asian makers have substantial market shares in EU this is not in the high-end segment (Nissan, Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, Suzuki are selling quite a few cars, Infiniti, Acura and Lexus far fewer). However, with Tesla I believe we may see the first (well, second after Ford) US automaker to take substantial market shares in Europe. And this will surprise the German giants.
Audi have been meddeling with the E-tron, never getting anywhere with it, but I'm sure they have more concepts in hiding. Mercedes of course know Tesla very well from their partnership and are starting sales of their electric B-class, but again in low numbers (more of a compliance car). Then there's they overpriced and underperforming electric SLR which again is more or less a concept. BMW have the i3, a short distance compact, aiming for the segment where there's currently the iMiEV/iOn/C-zero and LEAF.
I believe in the next few years we will see plug-in hybrid versions of the 3, 5 and 7-series BMW with smallish batteries. We will also see plug-in hybrids of the A 3,4,5,6,7 and 8-series Audi and also of the C- and E-class Mercedes (probably not the S-class). Volvo are now launching their plug-in hybrid with a pure electric mode, first comes the V60, with I think 12kWh battery making for around 50 km of pure EV range.
The common theme here is all these traditional automakers are coming around to the fact that customers are ready for electric cars, but they all think (just like Toyta) that hybrids will dominate the market for quite som time to come. Some of them will continue making the hybrids a la Lexus while some will understand the benefit of electric drive and phase out the ICE as main motor and transition into using the ICE as range extender for the electric drive train. What they are all underestimating, IMO, is how quickly the transition to 100% BEV's will happen. And this will cost them. The smart one's have BEV's (with batteries of 40kWh+) up their sleeve that they can quickly phase in to production when they realize that there is demand.
I think a lot of people including the traditional automakers are exaggerating charging infrastructure as a pontential problem/barrier to EV adoption. With large battery EV's almost all charging will be done at home at night. The supplement required is fast charging along main highways, for long distance travel. Tesla has figured this out just perfectly with their SC network. As has been mentioned before expanding the SC network is actually quite cheap and will only require a small percentage of Tesla's revenue. This percentage will be even lower as sales increases. Once the SC network is in place it will be cheap to maintain it.
If Tesla continues to move and evolve at their current speed though, they will be able to position themselves very well in the Asian and EU markets in addition to the US market where this is happening already. The NUMMI factory has tramendous capacity and Tesla has shown extreme ability to scale up quickly. Tesla must sustain high quality and operating reliability must be very high in order for them to succeed.
Thanks for EU perspective Johan.
your comment,
"The smart one's have BEV's (with batteries of 40kWh+) up their sleeve that they can quickly phase in to production when they realize that there is demand."
touched on a basic point I've wondered about as an investor. The auto industry seems to give 2-3 years of visibility of direction there development of new cars is going by the practice of unveiling prototypes. It would seem nobody is in position to deliver a compelling long-range EV to compete with the Model S for at 2-3 years. While this is not international law, and any company can do what they want with this... I'm wondering what others here think the likelihood of some undisclosed longer range EV at one of the major manufacturers? Anyone know of a precedent of "secret" development for a car that ended up being produced in volume (tens of thousands or more)?
your comment,
"The smart one's have BEV's (with batteries of 40kWh+) up their sleeve that they can quickly phase in to production when they realize that there is demand."
touched on a basic point I've wondered about as an investor. The auto industry seems to give 2-3 years of visibility of direction there development of new cars is going by the practice of unveiling prototypes. It would seem nobody is in position to deliver a compelling long-range EV to compete with the Model S for at 2-3 years. While this is not international law, and any company can do what they want with this... I'm wondering what others here think the likelihood of some undisclosed longer range EV at one of the major manufacturers? Anyone know of a precedent of "secret" development for a car that ended up being produced in volume (tens of thousands or more)?
SteveG3 - I think that this would be a very hard secret to keep. For starters this would have required some significant hires in software, hardware and battery technology beyond the current people involved in the hybrid and i3 like platforms. Then all these hires would have to stay at the company for the last three to four years and then not tell anyone what they are working on. I think that Tesla's experience vs. the leaf and mitsubishi shows that a larger 40kWh+ pack requires a host of related technologies (including cell design!) this is rather more specialized vs. the smaller packs in these cars and hybrids.
Now, can one of these manufacturers catch up in a few years? Technically it sounds possible (unclear on how much they would need to invent around Tesla's patents vs. license from them vs. violate), but culture would probably be an large issue. Look how long it has taken any one of them to lightly embrace hybrid technology. The first Prius went on sale in 1997 and was mass produced in 2000.
Anyone seen a decent German hybrid yet?
Now, can one of these manufacturers catch up in a few years? Technically it sounds possible (unclear on how much they would need to invent around Tesla's patents vs. license from them vs. violate), but culture would probably be an large issue. Look how long it has taken any one of them to lightly embrace hybrid technology. The first Prius went on sale in 1997 and was mass produced in 2000.
Anyone seen a decent German hybrid yet?
SebastianR
Active Member
I think one of the most frustrating things about German Car companies is that they are so damn good in engineering. And I believe that's their downfall with electric cars.
Let me explain: If you want to be a big-shot in a German car company you typically get big via the engine division. I.e. you need to be a petrol head by training and conviction. I mean, look at these engines, they are true marvels of engineering and are super sophisticated - and look at the guys who have a say in these companies: engineers who know about engines.
It's just such a pity that all these engineers rely on an outdated engineering paradigm. Anyways, the problem for them is that you don't switch to a new (and relatively unproven) technology on a whim - it would also be a personal tragedy since all your knowledge does not help in that new technology. So what to do?
Thus, the idea of putting the BMW electronic cars into a new company make sense from that perspective. But will it be enough? We will see.
Volker.Berlin
Member
You nailed it. I agree 100%. The years ahead are going to be interesting times for these companies.
I think this also. A person buying a PHEV is going to realize that EV driving is wonderful. Realize they don't need the range extender portion nearly as much (or at all) as they previously thought. And get an EV for their next car. And people first time buying into a PHEV may skip that step after there is a good portion of the population is happy and comfortable with pure EVs.
I honestly think once PHEV and EVs get about 25% of the market then PHEVs will become a niche vehicle within 2 product cycles (~7-12 years).
noticing on the tesla website the time to receive a model s performance is up to "about two months" in the us. the day leasing was launched it was at "about one month".
i wonder if that's increased due to new demand or if the eu units are sneaking in that timeframe slowing down production?
any thoughts or comments on exactly when eu production starts eating up time on the lines?
i wonder if that's increased due to new demand or if the eu units are sneaking in that timeframe slowing down production?
any thoughts or comments on exactly when eu production starts eating up time on the lines?
In Oslo, Elon Musk said that first European production would take place in June, with deliveries in July.
The one month lead time was there as late as this Tuesday, last time that I've checked it.
There seem that some pricing changes were made as well. The Performance Plus package now does not includes 21" wheels, but "requires" them. When selected from the Ordering Page, the Performance Plus Package ($6,500) automatically adds 21" wheels option ($3,500) on top of it.
Looks to me like the ASP should be revised up due to both of these changes.
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