That is interesting .... I wonder how much reservation rates have spiked due to the Financing Program.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
That is interesting .... I wonder how much reservation rates have spiked due to the Financing Program.
or possibly many of the deferrals converted to firm orders once financing was readily available.
It's questionable how much this financing could've helped in this situation. The financing was available even before this announcement - from various credit unions. Also, this new financing with elements of lease is not available in all states...
Another possibility is that there was an increase in the percentage of cars ordered as P85, but not necessarily spike in overall reservations.
ModelS8794
Member
Musk announced 80 P85 units for service loaners.
Additionally, I would guess the changes may be pretty dynamic based on whatever batches are coming up in their queue. The combination of those two items may well be enough to have them making the adjustment to their design studio as they did.
The other reason for this is to have cars around for an "impulse buy." This is very smart for Tesla and from what I understand was done with the Roadster.
Citizen-T
Active Member
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
The financing doesn't affect my deferral. If I could get away with only paying $500/month it might have. I would have made a down payment and borrowed from my credit union, but I still don't want to be saddled with monthly payments over a long period of time. I'm just going to have to wait until I can pay for nearly all of it at once.
The only important element of the announcement is the guaranteed buy-back. I think there are a fair number of people who are concerned that either the car or the company will fail prematurely. Elon's personal guarantee backstops the potential problem.
CyberDutchie
Active Member
Morgan Stanley just raised their Model S forecast for the year to 18k.
Yes, it's higher than their previous delivery forecast of 16k, but I'm not convinced this latest alert is anything that will move the stock up as it's still below Tesla's own guidance of 20k. One of the questions raised in this research note is about reservations:
Also, no increase in their price target--it remains at $47, which oddly enough they say is based on 150k Gen 3 deliveries by 2025. That's a long time out!
Yes, it's higher than their previous delivery forecast of 16k, but I'm not convinced this latest alert is anything that will move the stock up as it's still below Tesla's own guidance of 20k. One of the questions raised in this research note is about reservations:
Also, no increase in their price target--it remains at $47, which oddly enough they say is based on 150k Gen 3 deliveries by 2025. That's a long time out!
Last edited:
150K total Gen 3 by 2025? I think they can cut 6-7 years off that. Now if it's 150K per year by 2025, we've got a conversation.
lolachampcar
Well-Known Member
Robert,
I scratched my head when I thought about the personal backing by Musk for the buy back. You need to tank Tesla to need the buy back and, if that happens, Musk's pockets may not be able to support buying anything back.
Did anyone one else cringe at the now $10K price point for better handling with 21s? Man am I glad I got my P85 with Pilots when I did.
I scratched my head when I thought about the personal backing by Musk for the buy back. You need to tank Tesla to need the buy back and, if that happens, Musk's pockets may not be able to support buying anything back.
Did anyone one else cringe at the now $10K price point for better handling with 21s? Man am I glad I got my P85 with Pilots when I did.
CyberDutchie
Active Member
Not total, but 150k annual deliveries by 2025. This is how their model is estimating the ramp-up for Gen 3:
2016 15,000
2017 22,500
2018 37,500
2019 67,500
2020 90,000
...
2025 150,000
wow did tesla really say that? what's the motivation for keeping this key data point from investors?
CyberDutchie
Active Member
Tesla stopped giving out sequence numbers, in the US at least, now that the long wait times are over. There is still a reservation number when you make your reservation, but it seems more of a randomly assigned number.
I can understand that Tesla doesn't want to answer questions about number of reservations and cancellation rates on the earnings call. Most companies won't give out any details on their sales funnel--they typically just give guidance for future revenue (not even bookings).
mulder - Thanks, that's encouraging and helpful. I guess the $47 target is an intermediate time point (next 12 months?) and doesn't reflect the value of the stock/company in 2025. At 150K Gen 3s, and probably another 150K of Model S, Model X, new Roadster, etc. - or their variants - we are talking a company that, if it hits it margins, seems like the same value of Porsche. (I checked a couple months ago, Porsche had a $20B value on sales of approx. 200K units with the best margins in the mainstream auto business). So I would say 4-5 bagger from this price point in about 10 years if it hits targets. $247 in 2013. Very simple analysis on my part, and calling them a Porsche in 10 years is the leap of faith. I believe it. YMMV.
CyberDutchie
Active Member
You mean $247 in 2023...that would be a nice return on investment in ten years, I'd go for that!
If they believe the fundamental value now is $47, then in 2025 they are thinking a fundamental value of $47 + a compound interest rate for 12 years. If you assume 10% (which would be a simple and reasonable assumption for a stock), then that computes to $47 * 1.1^12 = $148.
Of course, in reality the $47 target would combine various future scenarios. So 12 years from now, you would be in one of the scenarios and looking backward with 12 years of extra information, the 2013 value would probably work out to something quite different than $47.
Maximum production capacity for Model S/X is 100 cars/day/shift. for a 3 shifts, 7 day operation production is maxed out at about 100,000 unit annually. In order to produce 150,000 model S/X Tesla will need to expand production line that they currently have.
yes, the sequence number were annoying customers who were wondering why their cars were being built late.
but the reservations activity they have reported with every quarterly letter. that's a key piece of material data about the business. would be very disappointing if they started withholding it.
PureAmps
Model S P85 (#2817)
I agree.
Reservation numbers were important when they were only selling hope. Now they are selling cars, and that is the only metric that matters.
Similar threads
- Article
