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Tesla Model S CPO Website - Now Live
- Thread starter Benjamin Brooks
- Start date
All have Supercharging?
A local Tesla Rep gave me the impression that all S60s sold by Tesla have supercharging - irrespective of how they are advertised or if they were originally sold without that capability. Apparently, they realized the lack of supercharging didn't make much sense b/c it was such a major disadvantage to not have such a critical feature. So all CPO/Inventory cars sold through them will have this feature enabled. It was a "software" update - no physical modifications made to the vehicle.
The iPhone price fluctuation/depreciation comparison tells me that such a system is not viable for such an expensive investment. It may be for those with flexible discretionary income but inevitably consumers just wont tolerate such depreciating values on such a large investment.
I hope Tesla makes their vehicles more scalable. Consumers cannot be expected to take such a heavy loss in such little time when investing $80k+ on a car. Such a system is just not feasible - at least not for the larger market share of consumers.
The bare bones/base of the car should be flexible enough for future modifications. I understand this can be a difficult task since technology changes so rapidly. But Tesla has the market cornered on Electric Cars. They should think ahead and set the standard. Get rid of the old business model. Set the stage for a new future. Lets put a nail in the ICE car coffin along with its business model.
A local Tesla Rep gave me the impression that all S60s sold by Tesla have supercharging - irrespective of how they are advertised or if they were originally sold without that capability. Apparently, they realized the lack of supercharging didn't make much sense b/c it was such a major disadvantage to not have such a critical feature. So all CPO/Inventory cars sold through them will have this feature enabled. It was a "software" update - no physical modifications made to the vehicle.
The iPhone price fluctuation/depreciation comparison tells me that such a system is not viable for such an expensive investment. It may be for those with flexible discretionary income but inevitably consumers just wont tolerate such depreciating values on such a large investment.
I hope Tesla makes their vehicles more scalable. Consumers cannot be expected to take such a heavy loss in such little time when investing $80k+ on a car. Such a system is just not feasible - at least not for the larger market share of consumers.
The bare bones/base of the car should be flexible enough for future modifications. I understand this can be a difficult task since technology changes so rapidly. But Tesla has the market cornered on Electric Cars. They should think ahead and set the standard. Get rid of the old business model. Set the stage for a new future. Lets put a nail in the ICE car coffin along with its business model.
I'm all for scalability and I hope battery upgrades and other hardware updates at a reasonable cost becomes the norm. But a car purchase is hardly ever an "investment." You are paying for the pleasure of owning a steeply depreciating asset to the tune of around $1,600 - $2,000 a month in the initial years.
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I would look at the resale values of the Mercedes S class for a good indication on where the Model S resale values will end up, sooner or later.
Cyclone
Cyclonic Member ((.oO))
That is precisely what I was thinking of when making that statement. AutoTrader within 100 miles of Charlotte NC puts a Certified 2011 S-class in the $43k-$50k range, precisely where I feel it is more realistic to see a 2012 Model S in 6 months. So basically, about $6k above Wshowell's estimate.
Personally, I think Tesla is breaking new ground when it comes to reliability, which is going to have a huge impact on the long term resale values. At the moment, the jury is still out... I'm not aware of many high mileage MS's and what maintenance has been required. In many ways, electric vehicles obviously have a lot of significant advantages over ICE; but there is obviously one HUGE risk and it rhymes with flattery.
Tesla's lightning fast speed to improve on the current vehicle can only hurt legacy vehicles in terms of resale. This is always going to be an issue that upsets owners, but certainly doesn't appear to be something that's going to stop them from doing it in the future.
Tesla's lightning fast speed to improve on the current vehicle can only hurt legacy vehicles in terms of resale. This is always going to be an issue that upsets owners, but certainly doesn't appear to be something that's going to stop them from doing it in the future.
I think the "breaking new grounds when it comes to reliability" is hurting resell values modestly. Keep in mind, Tesla can almost always replace the suspected parts. It's really the new features and upgrades that are hurting the resell value.
For instance:
1) S70 is now roughly the price of the S60 of the past. Meaning S60 are worth less
2) New Model S have Auto Pilot hardware that people can use later on. Old Model S doesn't.
3) New Model S have more sensors (part of the autopilot HW) which the old didn't have.
4) New Model S 85KWh has ability to upgrade battery. Old one maybe, but not offered right now.
So i would think the new features AND the more reliable parts are depressing the price of the older model.
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I guess I might be wrong in terms of seeing more S60 without Supercharging, but it seems like the ones with supercharging, they are tacking in the price of the supercharging already so it's not really a good deal when the S70 has the supercharging built in, more battery, and a better warranty (8 years/unlimited miles) for less. So hence why I didn't even considered the higher priced S60.
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I didn't realize AP has different sensor versions. Where did you read this?
Didn't read, actually saw and demonstrated at the demo drive.
The older Model S (pre-auto pilot) does have proximity sensors so the car could not show you cars around you. The new Auto-pilot HW Model S has the proximity sensors.
My understanding is that there are 3 levels of technology here: (1) original Model S, (2) parking sensor suite, and (3) autopilot sensor suite.
(1) No sensors.
(2) Assists with parking only -- shows distance from stationary objects in color form at first, and then shows units when you get closer.
(3) Superset of (2) that also includes sensors that currently support TACC, blind spot warning, lane departure warning, forward collision warning, and emergency braking collision mitigation. "Promised" to support more features via OTA updates to vehicles containing this hardware.
I believe the first question quoted above is asking if there are different versions of (3). My understanding is "no" w/r/t customer vehicles, though I'm sure that Tesla has research underway with one or more additional versions for future release.
No2DF - Is your understanding different than this? If so, please elaborate.
Cyclone
Cyclonic Member ((.oO))
Yup you got it right. There are no different 3) versions. Just more hardware compared to the original model s. If you paid for the auto pilot, tesla just turns on a software switch.
mmd
Active Member
Edmunds' long term tests and Consumer Reports' own car saw several minor and major issues during their testing. Edmunds went as far as to say that they couldn't recommend the car. That was one reason why Tesla extended the warranty to 8 years, infinite miles last year. So far, Tesla and the early adopters have done a good job hiding many of these issues from new buyers. These many minor issues can be a problem for those who are just looking for a car for daily use. The early productions might have more of these annoyances.
I wouldn't. The buyback guarantee was based on something close to an S-class depreciation curve. Making money on a guarantee of at least that amount, was one of the best calls Tesla made. The cars still don't trade near it. Saying "sooner or later" otherwise doesn't really say much.
I am not sure if it is the best call for Tesla. If you read this thread from the beginning or do some search, I can assure you tesla, for the most part, is losing money because of the policy of guaranteeing the price of their cars. As I have stated before, what tesla is doing is artificially controlling the depreciation rate. In the long run, this is definitely NOT sustainable. And we can already see the effects: Tons of CPO Model S priced higher then they should given the new stuff Tesla are releasing (Think new S70 vs the Inventory S60).
Reading this thread reminds me of reading a topic on Reddit I actually understand and realizing how quickly opinions start being taken as fact. The reality is often quite different.
If Tesla has been paid an "insurance premium" to cover the residual value above an S-class depreciation curve, well so far that bet is working out well. There is also the benefit of additional sales from nervous first adopters of this kind of technology. Can't say the same for the Chevy Volt which has depreciated worse than an S-class without the luxury appeal.
If Tesla is artificially controlling the prices of CPO's, then why are they selling several a day? I also don't believe Tesla has much of an issue holding onto those CPO's as demand for loaner vehicles is incredibly high. If you wanted to check this, try locating an actual CPO vehicle for inspection. You'll find how difficult it is to actually pin down. Tesla has the benefit of depreciating a somewhat productive asset which provides the type of customer service that allows them to hopefully create future sales. How many S85 owners drove a P85+ and decided to upgrade?
I don't get the way people are looking down at vehicles without auto-pilot, parking sensors and heaven forbid power folding mirrors. Those early VIN vehicles still have a subjective 95% of the features that Model S owners want and love. Based on where they price CPO's today, I would guess that the battery capacity relative to current technology along with milage/time will determine the vast majority of the depreciation. And yet with an 85 battery pack I can still travel with ease across the country using superchargers and it probably allows for daily travel of another subjective 95% of the population. I mean if you used up 250 miles a day you would be looking at 91k miles a year. I don't get all the fuss over having a 90 pack versus 85 either. If anything it's showing that advancement in battery tech will allows for a much more inexpensive battery swap in the future. How awesome is that?
At the end of the day I think this CPO program provided a few important attributes for Tesla. They finally established some used market pricing in an otherwise confusing and scary market for used buyers. It also helps regulate the flow of older models to perhaps lower the capital intensive nature of this business given their trade in volumes. And you introduce the cars to a whole new market of buyers who would love to buy the car at 30-45% discounts to "sticker" price.
For those that are waiting for massive depreciation in the used market (I'm sure a lot of short sellers of TSLA are), I suspect you will end up being disappointed. And more than likely Elon will keep giving us plenty of reasons to wait for the next great feature. But those great features are what creates the brand value behind Tesla that should help retain future values better than the Leaf or Volt. This seems similar to me as the used market that exists for Apple products versus HP or Lenovo. Having a vibrant resale market for products that consumers love creates a fairly inexpensive way to upgrade over time. People are assuming you'll see the same type of situation for the Model S versus other ICE vehicles when we already have plenty of evidence that values are holding up better than most had anticipated.
If Tesla has been paid an "insurance premium" to cover the residual value above an S-class depreciation curve, well so far that bet is working out well. There is also the benefit of additional sales from nervous first adopters of this kind of technology. Can't say the same for the Chevy Volt which has depreciated worse than an S-class without the luxury appeal.
If Tesla is artificially controlling the prices of CPO's, then why are they selling several a day? I also don't believe Tesla has much of an issue holding onto those CPO's as demand for loaner vehicles is incredibly high. If you wanted to check this, try locating an actual CPO vehicle for inspection. You'll find how difficult it is to actually pin down. Tesla has the benefit of depreciating a somewhat productive asset which provides the type of customer service that allows them to hopefully create future sales. How many S85 owners drove a P85+ and decided to upgrade?
I don't get the way people are looking down at vehicles without auto-pilot, parking sensors and heaven forbid power folding mirrors. Those early VIN vehicles still have a subjective 95% of the features that Model S owners want and love. Based on where they price CPO's today, I would guess that the battery capacity relative to current technology along with milage/time will determine the vast majority of the depreciation. And yet with an 85 battery pack I can still travel with ease across the country using superchargers and it probably allows for daily travel of another subjective 95% of the population. I mean if you used up 250 miles a day you would be looking at 91k miles a year. I don't get all the fuss over having a 90 pack versus 85 either. If anything it's showing that advancement in battery tech will allows for a much more inexpensive battery swap in the future. How awesome is that?
At the end of the day I think this CPO program provided a few important attributes for Tesla. They finally established some used market pricing in an otherwise confusing and scary market for used buyers. It also helps regulate the flow of older models to perhaps lower the capital intensive nature of this business given their trade in volumes. And you introduce the cars to a whole new market of buyers who would love to buy the car at 30-45% discounts to "sticker" price.
For those that are waiting for massive depreciation in the used market (I'm sure a lot of short sellers of TSLA are), I suspect you will end up being disappointed. And more than likely Elon will keep giving us plenty of reasons to wait for the next great feature. But those great features are what creates the brand value behind Tesla that should help retain future values better than the Leaf or Volt. This seems similar to me as the used market that exists for Apple products versus HP or Lenovo. Having a vibrant resale market for products that consumers love creates a fairly inexpensive way to upgrade over time. People are assuming you'll see the same type of situation for the Model S versus other ICE vehicles when we already have plenty of evidence that values are holding up better than most had anticipated.
That's the direction they are going. Wait an year or two and see. My bet is we'll see Model S resale values around S Class retail values.
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I agree completely. Artificially controlling the resale value will never work and it's not sustainable. Ultimately the market sets the price and it's not in Tesla's interest to make up the difference. Car values should be based on what they are worth in the market. For example it's hard to imagine anyone buying those S60s priced in the late 70ks to late 80ks. Same for the P85+ vehicles in the 90s.
mmd
Active Member
Now that the 70 kwh RWD is $70,000, I don't see why any CPO S60 can be worth more than $40k if it has 10k+ miles on it. Here is my reasoning:
A brand new model S 70kwh out the door with 0 miles & immaculate condition is worth only $60k due to tax credit and state rebates. Then, due to 70 kwh having AP, better build, better warranty, free supercharger etc., the CPO S60 should be another $10k lower than $60k, which brings it down to $50k. Then, depreciate it for age and mileage, and it should be no more than $40k. IMHO, It should really be $30k to $35K if the age or mileage is higher.
A brand new model S 70kwh out the door with 0 miles & immaculate condition is worth only $60k due to tax credit and state rebates. Then, due to 70 kwh having AP, better build, better warranty, free supercharger etc., the CPO S60 should be another $10k lower than $60k, which brings it down to $50k. Then, depreciate it for age and mileage, and it should be no more than $40k. IMHO, It should really be $30k to $35K if the age or mileage is higher.
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smorgasbord
Active Member
The build quality and the fit and finish of later VINs is far better than the Sigs and early VINs, however.
Cyclone
Cyclonic Member ((.oO))
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