Tesla Model S CPO Website - Now Live

[ModelSFL]

Now that the 70 kwh RWD is $70,000, I don't see why any CPO S60 can be worth more than $40k if it has 10k+ miles on it. Here is my reasoning:
A brand new model S 70kwh out the door with 0 miles & immaculate condition is worth only $60k due to tax credit and state rebates. Then, due to 70 kwh having AP, better build, better warranty, free supercharger etc., the CPO S60 should be another $10k lower than $60k, which brings it down to $50k. Then, depreciate it for age and mileage, and it should be no more than $40k. IMHO, It should really be $30k to $35K if the age or mileage is higher.

The assumption is the 60 kWh includes the supercharger as we have seen the majority do. The difference between the 60 kWh and 85 kWh battery was $7,000 w/ tire upgrade or $280 per 1 kWh. Therefore, $2800 for 10 kWh difference.

There is likely going to be two values if it is a Inv vs CPO model. From what I have seen most of the Inv still have the tax credit, TP (now in the premium package) and AP hardware The CPOs don't have the tax credit and aren't AP capable. It could be an easy argument that lack of AP hardware is more significant than $5,000 but I will use that value for now.

1. CPO 60 kWh
$73,000 [70 kWh w/Premium Package] - $2800 [-10 kWh] - $7500 [tax credit] $5,000 [no AP hardware] = $57,700 - miles ($1 per mile) - depreciation (1% per month) = Price

2. Inv 60 kWh
$75,500 [70 kWh /AP & Premium] - $2800 [-10 kWh] = $72,700 - miles ($1 per mile) - depreciation (1% per month) = Price

 

[MsElectric]

The assumption is the 60 kWh includes the supercharger as we have seen the majority do. The difference between the 60 kWh and 85 kWh battery was $8,000 or $533 per 1 kWh. Therefore, $5330 for 10 kWh difference.

There is likely going to be two values if it is a Inv vs CPO model. From what I have seen most of the Inv still have the tax credit and AP hardware The CPOs don't have the tax credit and aren't AP capable. It could be an easy argument that lack of AP hardware is more significant than $5,000 but I will use that value for now.

1. CPO 60 kWh
$70,000 [70 kWh] - $5330 [-10 kWh] - $7500 [tax credit] $5,000 [no AP hardware] = $52,170 - miles ($1 per mile) - depreciation (1% per month) = Price

2. Inv 60 kWh
$70,000 [70 kWh] - $5330 [-10 kWh] = $64,670 - miles ($1 per mile) - depreciation (1% per month) = Price

I think your logic is absolutely reasonable. This would mean CPO 60s should be in the 40s. Some of the S60 pricing is about the same or even more expensive than a nicely loaded 70 or 70D even. IMHO the cars that are a good buy as CPO are the P85s. Some of the S60s for sale seem to be overpriced by quite a margin.

 

[PokerBroker]

That's the direction they are going. Wait an year or two and see. My bet is we'll see Model S resale values around S Class retail values.

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I agree completely. Artificially controlling the resale value will never work and it's not sustainable. Ultimately the market sets the price and it's not in Tesla's interest to make up the difference. Car values should be based on what they are worth in the market. For example it's hard to imagine anyone buying those S60s priced in the late 70ks to late 80ks. Same for the P85+ vehicles in the 90s.

The market will most definitely set the price as soon as Model X starts shipping or Tesla will find themselves sitting on 5,000 used Model S instead of 300. They are not going to be able to pump up prices or they will have boatloads of cars on their books. My checkbook is ready.

 

[MsElectric]

The market will most definitely set the price as soon as Model X starts shipping or Tesla will find themselves sitting on 5,000 used Model S instead of 300. They are not going to be able to pump up prices or they will have boatloads of cars on their books. My checkbook is ready.

I have a feeling they are already sitting on 1,000-2,000+ Model S vehicles. I wonder if they can sell more if they clean up that ridiculous interface they have for finding a Model S. People might be waiting for a Model S with a certain color and option combinations and they might not be buying because the car is in the Tesla inventory and they have not listed that car yet because their interface is clunky and idiotic mess that lists cars at around 30 each by a certain geographic location. I bet most CPO car buyers don't know of Hank's wonderful interface. They should clean up the interface and list what they have so people looking to buy can find exactly what they are looking to buy. Mercedes for example lists about 500-600 S class vehicles (2013 and 2014) in their CPO program at a time.

In any case it is really telling that as soon as they price an S60 in the 40s it is gone while the rest that are overpriced just sit there. It indicates that's where the market is as @ModelSFL suggested. As overpriced as some of the other models are, the P85s seem to be absolutely reasonably priced. In fact if you are looking to buy an S60 or S85, it really makes sense to pay a bit more and go for a P85. 2013 P85s are available for the late 60s and 2014 P85s are available for the late 70s.

 

[mmd]

1. CPO 60 kWh
$70,000 [70 kWh] - $5330 [-10 kWh] - $7500 [tax credit] $5,000 [no AP hardware] = $52,170 - miles ($1 per mile) - depreciation (1% per month) = Price

I think your 2 formulas are very good starting points. I forgot to list the battery pack difference.

But the new 70 kwh also comes with 8 years, infinite mile warranty, while the cpo cars only carry 4 year/50k miles warranty, right? I believe the extra warranty is also worth something around the cost of an extended warranty, which needs to be deducted in the formula.
Once you depreciate 1% per month and $1 per mile, the price should really be +/- $40k. But of course, some will pay more than that if they can't resist

 

[brantse]

In any case it is really telling that as soon as they price an S60 in the 40s it is gone while the rest that are overpriced just sit there. It indicates that's where the market is as @ModelSFL suggested.

I think the market has a much steeper demand curve than most other vehicles, due to a large number of aspiring Model S owners. I know I'm in that camp. All the options, features, lack of miles in the world do not mean a thing to a purchaser who just flat out cannot afford the vehicle.

 

[MsElectric]

I think the market has a much steeper demand curve than most other vehicles, due to a large number of aspiring Model S owners. I know I'm in that camp. All the options, features, lack of miles in the world do not mean a thing to a purchaser who just flat out cannot afford the vehicle.

This is why I feel the market, not Tesla, will eventually set the price. @mmd brought up some good points and another point to consider in favor of the 70 is that the performance is better so that's also worth something. Basically if you are looking to buy a 60, based on all logical assumptions and considerations, the pricing for 60s should be in 40s. If it is not there, just wait a bit and I'm sure it will only be a matter of time. In a few months there will also be 70Ds available as inventory cars so for around what they want to charge for a CPO or inventory 60, you might be able to buy an inventory 70D with Autopilot, AWD, and a bunch of recent refinements.

 

[ModelSFL]

I think your 2 formulas are very good starting points. I forgot to list the battery pack difference.

But the new 70 kwh also comes with 8 years, infinite mile warranty, while the cpo cars only carry 4 year/50k miles warranty, right? I believe the extra warranty is also worth something around the cost of an extended warranty, which needs to be deducted in the formula.
Once you depreciate 1% per month and $1 per mile, the price should really be +/- $40k. But of course, some will pay more than that if they can't resist

The price per kWh should have that baked in as the 60 kWh (125k / 8 year) and the 85 kWh (unlimited / 8 year) was already established.

 

[No2DinosaurFuel]

If Tesla has been paid an "insurance premium" to cover the residual value above an S-class depreciation curve, well so far that bet is working out well. There is also the benefit of additional sales from nervous first adopters of this kind of technology. Can't say the same for the Chevy Volt which has depreciated worse than an S-class without the luxury appeal.

1) Works well for early adopters and new owners NOT for Tesla. Read the comments on how Tesla are buying these back at a lower price than they are posting on the CPO website.
2) They reset the warranty on all CPO it will cost them more.
3) They also have to refurbish these cars and it will cost them more.
4) They have to pay for storage. So it will cost them more.
5) I can assure you most CPO cars are still overpriced. Check on how long some of these cars are still on the CPO website.

If Tesla is artificially controlling the prices of CPO's, then why are they selling several a day? I also don't believe Tesla has much of an issue holding onto those CPO's as demand for loaner vehicles is incredibly high. If you wanted to check this, try locating an actual CPO vehicle for inspection. You'll find how difficult it is to actually pin down. Tesla has the benefit of depreciating a somewhat productive asset which provides the type of customer service that allows them to hopefully create future sales. How many S85 owners drove a P85+ and decided to upgrade?

1) Not all cars removed from the EV-consolidator are sold. Some are just hidden and others are remove temporarily and put back.
2) Demands for the lower priced CPOs are high, not so much for the high priced CPOs because one can get a better deal by buying new tesla. Factor in tax credit and these CPOs now look not such a great deal.
3) The reason why you can't pin down the car is because they vary by location and can be moved. Moreover, tesla are more reluctant to let you inspect before they "refurbish" them to give to you. You might think it's a ****** car considering how long they been sitting outside in the environment.
4) S85 to P85+ upgrade? I don't have the number for that, but I do agree there were a lot of people doing S60,S85,P85 to S85D, P85D upgrades when tesla made the AWD announcement. Hence why you are seeing a lot of CPOs now.

I don't get the way people are looking down at vehicles without auto-pilot, parking sensors and heaven forbid power folding mirrors. Those early VIN vehicles still have a subjective 95% of the features that Model S owners want and love. Based on where they price CPO's today, I would guess that the battery capacity relative to current technology along with milage/time will determine the vast majority of the depreciation. And yet with an 85 battery pack I can still travel with ease across the country using superchargers and it probably allows for daily travel of another subjective 95% of the population. I mean if you used up 250 miles a day you would be looking at 91k miles a year. I don't get all the fuss over having a 90 pack versus 85 either. If anything it's showing that advancement in battery tech will allows for a much more inexpensive battery swap in the future. How awesome is that?

The reason these are worth more is you have to look at the demographics of Tesla Model S buyers. They tend to be on the bleeding edge type of people. They will value those new features a lot more. In fact some are saying they wanted these luxury features on their old tesla because other luxury cars had them but tesla, at the time, didn't. Again why they are trading up and you seeing more CPOs. What you are describing is more of the common folks who car for a car just for the sake of a car. Now i am not saying ALL tesla buyers have this mindset, but a majority of them do, at least until the Model 3 comes out.

At the end of the day I think this CPO program provided a few important attributes for Tesla. They finally established some used market pricing in an otherwise confusing and scary market for used buyers. It also helps regulate the flow of older models to perhaps lower the capital intensive nature of this business given their trade in volumes. And you introduce the cars to a whole new market of buyers who would love to buy the car at 30-45% discounts to "sticker" price.

1) Confusing and scary market for used buyers? I think you mean Sellers.
2) Sure it might regulate the flow a slight bit because everyone thinks they can sell their car for high price and are willing to keep it longer.
3) You said it yourself! "given their trade in volumes"
4) I don't think it's 30-40% discount for the majority of the CPOs when you factor in the tax credit. Some are at that level, but most are still not.

For those that are waiting for massive depreciation in the used market (I'm sure a lot of short sellers of TSLA are), I suspect you will end up being disappointed. And more than likely Elon will keep giving us plenty of reasons to wait for the next great feature. But those great features are what creates the brand value behind Tesla that should help retain future values better than the Leaf or Volt. This seems similar to me as the used market that exists for Apple products versus HP or Lenovo. Having a vibrant resale market for products that consumers love creates a fairly inexpensive way to upgrade over time. People are assuming you'll see the same type of situation for the Model S versus other ICE vehicles when we already have plenty of evidence that values are holding up better than most had anticipated.

1) I am not sure what you mean. Next great features help retain value for older cars without the next great feature? One using logic would think it will cause the opposite effect. Further depreciating values for the older cars.
2) There might be some truth when you said it can be fairly inexpensive way to upgrade over time. This is mainly due to the tax credit. Some people have been driving for free or close to free when they sold their Model S by private sales before the big AWD announcement. After the announcement? Not so much. We will have to see how much in the end it will cost to trade-up.

 

[HankLloydRight]

Mercedes for example lists about 500-600 S class vehicles (2013 and 2014) in their CPO program at a time.

Likewise, the BMW-USA CPO site lists pretty much every used car (CPO or just "Preowned") for sale across all of their dealers. So there are thousands of cars listed. While the BMW interface could use a little improvment, it's actually really pretty good. I've bought two used cars using their CPO/Preowned site. Tesls should take a lesson from BMW (and/or EV-CPO )

 

[No2DinosaurFuel]

I think your 2 formulas are very good starting points. I forgot to list the battery pack difference.

But the new 70 kwh also comes with 8 years, infinite mile warranty, while the cpo cars only carry 4 year/50k miles warranty, right? I believe the extra warranty is also worth something around the cost of an extended warranty, which needs to be deducted in the formula.
Once you depreciate 1% per month and $1 per mile, the price should really be +/- $40k. But of course, some will pay more than that if they can't resist

The 4 years/50K miles applies to ALL tesla, new, CPOs, or inventory. This is your usual Bumper to bumper warranty. The 8 years/unlimited miles warranty is only the power train and battery warranty.

 

[MsElectric]

Likewise, the BMW-USA CPO site lists pretty much every used car (CPO or just "Preowned") for sale across all of their dealers. So there are thousands of cars listed. While the BMW interface could use a little improvment, it's actually really pretty good. I've bought two used cars using their CPO/Preowned site. Tesls should take a lesson from BMW (and/or EV-CPO )

I still think Tesla should just give you a folly loaded P90DL and have you take over the design and implementation of their entire CPO (and Inventory?) interface. They can easily pay for your P90 by letting go of whoever they hired or contracted to design and manage the current mess they have -- as whatever they paid, they paid too much.

The person who signed off on the current Tesla CPO interface is clueless. As I've said many times, whoever designed the Tesla CPO interface had no inkling about the needs of someone looking to buy a CPO car. If I were looking for a CPO car, the geographic location is completely irrelevant to me and so are the silly stock photos of the cars, as presumably someone looking to buy a Model S already knows what one looks like. I'd want to see as much of an inventory as possible so I can find the right car, with the right options, at the right price. *cough* like EV-CPO

 

[HankLloydRight]

Even though it's a horrible design, it's actually well engineered (actually over-engineered, IMHO), so unless they did it in-house, I'm sure they paid more than $100k to have that developed (and it probable took months to do).

But yes, I'm sure if they had a better designed site that did much of what EV-CPO does, they would be able to sell A LOT more cars. Even by doing something as simple as "free shipping" for CPO or Inventory cars, A LOT of people be jumping to pay their current high/over-market prices. Any car, from any location for this price. Just eliminate the "location" aspect of it entirely, since people seemingly can't inspect the CPO cars prior to putting down a deposit or at delivery.

 

[Cowby]

......Even by doing something as simple as "free shipping" for CPO or Inventory cars, A LOT of people be jumping to pay their current high/over-market prices. Any car, from any location for this price. Just eliminate the "location" aspect of it entirely, since people seemingly can't inspect the CPO cars prior to putting down a deposit or at delivery.

Waht a fantastic novel idea....and to make up for that, they could charge a $3-5K non-refundable deposit ( but make it 1 week transferable if the car they picked turned out not what they expected on delivery).

 

[BoerumHill]

I'm not sure those P85+'s in the 90s are overpriced. Most all of them are maxed out, MAYBE they won't have cold weather/dual chargers/RFS. That's 1K/2K/3K, so the list was $120-126K.

Start there and subtract time since build ($1K/month or even 1%/month) less mileage ($0.80-$1.00 per mile), and voila, most of the P85+'s are price appropriately.

As my target is a low mileage Q2/Q3 2014 P85+, I REALLY wish it were not so.

 

[MsElectric]

I'm not sure those P85+'s in the 90s are overpriced. Most all of them are maxed out, MAYBE they won't have cold weather/dual chargers/RFS. That's 1K/2K/3K, so the list was $120-126K.

Start there and subtract time since build ($1K/month or even 1%/month) less mileage ($0.80-$1.00 per mile), and voila, most of the P85+'s are price appropriately.

As my target is a low mileage Q2/Q3 2014 P85+, I REALLY wish it were not so.

I realize some are maxed out but options are never worth used what they cost new. The rule of thumb generally is that options are worth about 50% or less when the car is used. I think the only good deals to be had for CPO cars now are the P85s. As I said earlier 2013 P85s are in the late 60s and 2014 P85s can be had for the late 70s. At those prices they are reasonable deals and make sense for someone looking to buy a used car to save some money.

The P85+ vehicles IMHO are horribly priced. They are too close to the price of an inventory P85D. When you can buy an inventory P85D for around $110K and receive about $10K in state incentives why pay 90-something for a P85+ that's really no faster than a P85. I know that Hank loves his P85+ low profile staggered tires but i never got the price justification for the plus version unless you happen to be a huge RWD or staggered wheel enthusiast. Personally I consider the plus package to me more of a liability than a benefit. I think they'll have to apply about $10K in price reductions to move those P85+ cars so if you are looking to buy one I suggest that you wait.

 

[HankLloydRight]

The P85+ vehicles IMHO are horribly priced. They are too close to the price of an inventory P85D. When you can buy an inventory P85D for around $110K and receive about $10K in state incentives why pay 90-something for a P85+ that's really no faster than a P85. I know that Hank loves his P85+ low profile staggered tires but i never got the price justification for the plus version unless you happen to be a huge RWD or staggered wheel enthusiast. I think they'll have to apply about $10K in price reductions to move those P85+ cars so if you are looking to buy one I suggest that you wait.

I got my P85+ as an Inventory car with 8k miles and was about 10 months old, so I got a real nice discount off of "new". Also, between the time my car was made, and when I bought it, the "list" price of the P85+ was about $10k higher. So depending on how you count, I got nearly a $30k discount from "new."

But if I were in the market now, with the same budget, I'd probably by a new 85D for about what I paid for the P85+. So yeah, I think the P85+'s are currently overpriced compared to what one can buy new.

 

[MsElectric]

I'm not sure those P85+'s in the 90s are overpriced. Most all of them are maxed out, MAYBE they won't have cold weather/dual chargers/RFS. That's 1K/2K/3K, so the list was $120-126K.

Start there and subtract time since build ($1K/month or even 1%/month) less mileage ($0.80-$1.00 per mile), and voila, most of the P85+'s are price appropriately.

As my target is a low mileage Q2/Q3 2014 P85+, I REALLY wish it were not so.

By the way the following 2014 P85+ with 24,575 miles (VIN P35231) is $85,500. While the$90-something vehicles are overpriced this vehicle seems more or less reasonable. What type of pricing are you waiting for?

http://www.teslamotors.com/models/preowned/P35231

Tech Package
The Tech Package adds a host of features to an already advanced car.

• Onboard maps and navigation for North America with free updates for 7 years
• Daytime LED running lights
• LED cornering lights
• Automatic keyless entry
• Lighted door handles
• Electrochromatic heated side and rearview mirrors
• Power liftgate
• GPS enabled Homelink
• Memory seats, mirrors, and driver profile

• Blue Metallic Paint
• All Glass Panoramic Roof
• 21" Silver Turbine Wheels
• Black Nappa Leather Seats
• Piano Black Décor
• White Alcantara Headliner
• Carbon Fiber Spoiler
• Tesla Red Brake Calipers
• Supercharger Enabled
• Dual Chargers
• Smart Air Suspension
• Ultra High Fidelity Sound
• Subzero Weather Package
• Premium Interior Lighting
• Performance Plus

 

[ModelSFL]

There were some holes in my packaging and pricing. I didn't account that the left over TP package items got moved into the Premium package. I included them in below as most CPOs/Inv seem to include TP. I also had some bad math on the price per kWh. I corrected it below:

1. CPO 60 kWh
$73,000 [70 kWh w/Premium Package] - $2800 [-10 kWh] - $7500 [tax credit] $5,000 [no AP hardware] = $57,700 - miles ($1 per mile) - depreciation (1% per month) = Price

2. Inv 60 kWh
$75,500 [70 kWh /AP & Premium] - $2800 [-10 kWh] = $72,700 - miles ($1 per mile) - depreciation (1% per month) = Price

While I do believe there are a number of overpriced S60's on the CPO, this might be more inline with how Tesla is coming up with the CPO logic which might make a *little* more sense.

 

[MsElectric]

Or you can buy this P85+ from a Toyota dealer with no additional CPO warranty for $97,991. LOL. And they say Toyota does not sell premium EVs

I don't think that Toyota dealership has any idea how long they will have to wait to sell that car!

Oh and it is "$10,400 below NADA Retail." If you can't trust NADA who can you trust...?

http://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/detail/628253501/overview/

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There were some holes in my packaging and pricing. I didn't account that the left over TP package items got moved into the Premium package. I included them in below as most CPOs/Inv seem to include TP. I also had some bad math on the price per kWh. I corrected it below:

1. CPO 60 kWh
$73,000 [70 kWh w/Premium Package] - $2800 [-10 kWh] - $7500 [tax credit] $5,000 [no AP hardware] = $57,700 - miles ($1 per mile) - depreciation (1% per month) = Price

2. Inv 60 kWh
$75,500 [70 kWh /AP & Premium] - $2800 [-10 kWh] = $72,700 - miles ($1 per mile) - depreciation (1% per month) = Price

While I do believe there are a number of overpriced S60's on the CPO, this might be more inline with how Tesla is coming up with the CPO logic which might make a *little* more sense.

It would still seem to suggest that the S60s should be sold in the $40K-something range.