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Tesla Gigafactory
- Thread starter domenick
- Start date
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
As a Philadelphian I can tell you we seem to be battling North Carolina more than other states for large fun industrial developments and things that need tons of space. We lost out on that giant brewery a couple years ago and haven't gotten over it since. Then Buffalo pulls off the huge solar plant.
East coast shipping hubs would be a great location for a Gigafactory. At first glance, you'd think a place like Philly wouldn't have enough space, but the beautiful irony is that we have HUGE swaths of obsolete refinery space right in town that are just now becoming available since light crude is nonexistent in North America. Bring those raw materials right up the coast and directly unload into a Gigafactory.
Hopefully we'll take NY's example and out-tax-cut places like North Carolina for the business.
Yes I'm sure. You see one road in etch end of the building in the illustration, and the other one is the right road for the green-marked road. (I guess that the "road" you marked on the illustration will actually be a rail-road.)
RobinF
Member
Man, if that first huge construction phase is just 1/12 of the finished structure it boggles the mind.
I have to disagree, and vehemently, with everything that both you and Chickenseveil have to say against Japan.
Not because they aren't true statements, ceteris paribus, but because they aren't relevant.
Now, Japan may be - and has been - in a 25-year economic funk, but irrespective of that, Toyota, Panasonic, Honda, Mitsubishi, all the Japanese zaikai have been able to grow and prosper quite well, thank you very much, with all the baggage you have cited.
To address your points more specifically:
0. Land prices (Chickensevil's point)
* a 5mm or even 10mm square foot facility, with its ancillary land, takes up as much space as does any other large industrial campus, of which Japan not only has manifold examples, but there are some antiquated facilities that could be retrofitted for the purpose.
1. Seismic.
* Much of eastern (="southern") Honshu is a seismically quiescent terrain - about as likely to see an earthquake as is Sparks, NV.
2. Geothermal
* Very little of Japan's overall land mass is so susceptible. No more so than, say, Fremont is from Mt. Lassen.
3. Atmospheric
* Typhoon activity is relevant at best only to very specific sectors or east/southeast coastal areas. Akin to saying do not consider North Carolina because the Outer Banks are hurricane-prone.
4. Oceanic
* Ditto above.
5. Mineral
* Which is why Japan never will rise to become an economically important entity......ditto Netherlands, or Singapore, or........
chickensevil
Active Member
I'm not saying you can't get land in Japan, I just don't think it makes sense. On top of the fact that they can likely get something cheaper in China their customer base is also expected to be much larger there as well. Wouldnt it be best to set up shop on the country that you are likely to do the most business in and then ship elsewhere as needed? The exception to that rule would be for cheaper labor or other cheaper costs... Which again, actually makes China even MORE likely a candidate over Japan.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Oh, is transportation cost zero now? I thought that was why oil was such a big deal in history because it used to be cheaper to ship from abroad than to build local.
I'm trying to think forward with transportation costs rising. Maybe my assumption there is wrong but that is a chunk of that though process.
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Presumably you build them where the sales are, then transportation doesn't enter into it as a major factor.
If you build them in cheap labour countries to sell elsewhere, eventually you will fail because your customers won't have the money to purchase your products because you've taken away the well paying jobs that allow them to purchase your products.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
China would likely have cheap labor and tons of people available to build a Gigafactory #2 very quickly.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
People seem to be focused on Asia which will be an important market in the future but Europe is an important market right now and it would make sense to build a Gigafactory in Europe (as well as a Tesla assembly plant).
Count me among the people who would prefer to see a working GF #1 before others are started... I know we investors give Tesla and Elon a lot of faith, but I would prefer to see the first factory cranking out great product efficiently at low cost before we decide that this idea is so good it needs to be multiplied x2 or x3. I get that they might be "opportunistic" with capital raises before then but having multiple billion dollar factories with an unproven design gives me the willies.
As optimistic as I am for Tesla's future we still need some Cash to move forward with a GF2. If Pre-orders of Model 3 could be say roughly 1000$ Times the number of reservations, Think it will be in the 100th o thousands. 100 000x1 000 is still just 100 millions.. But would the reservations be in higher numbers and higher fee I would vote for a Second GF.
This would be best located in Europe due 2 big market and logistics. Both Freemont and Nevada GF is on the west side of the country with great access to the pacific and therefor Asia. For a car destined for Europe this car would have to travel far by ship and/or be railed across the country first to access the ports of the east. Highly skilled workers are easy to find in countries like Germany. Culture is quite similar if compared to China for example making company culture more adoptable. Would make a great hub in Europe.
Ps Just speculation. Total BS. I have no clue, just thinking out loud!;P
This would be best located in Europe due 2 big market and logistics. Both Freemont and Nevada GF is on the west side of the country with great access to the pacific and therefor Asia. For a car destined for Europe this car would have to travel far by ship and/or be railed across the country first to access the ports of the east. Highly skilled workers are easy to find in countries like Germany. Culture is quite similar if compared to China for example making company culture more adoptable. Would make a great hub in Europe.
Ps Just speculation. Total BS. I have no clue, just thinking out loud!;P
I am pretty sure Elon said that it was better to build the battery near where the batteries will be sold. So Europe will get one eventually.
I am pretty sure Tesla has to prove that it can sell the gigafactory production before they can start on a new gigafactory. If they can prove they can sell the capacity, then the next gigafactory will have to be in North America to cover the production shortfall of the first gigafactory. New gigafactories in other continents would soon follow the second one because the word will be out that there is money to be made in low cost batteries. I expect a second gigafactory announcement in 2018 and a third in 2020....and that is just for Tesla. Samsung, LG, and the Chinese will not sit idle.
I am pretty sure Tesla has to prove that it can sell the gigafactory production before they can start on a new gigafactory. If they can prove they can sell the capacity, then the next gigafactory will have to be in North America to cover the production shortfall of the first gigafactory. New gigafactories in other continents would soon follow the second one because the word will be out that there is money to be made in low cost batteries. I expect a second gigafactory announcement in 2018 and a third in 2020....and that is just for Tesla. Samsung, LG, and the Chinese will not sit idle.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
I agree that GF #2 won't start until GF #1 has been cranking a bit, has exposed all design flaws, and proves itself. This will allow them to refine the design for the factory before starting the second. I'm guessing Q3 2016 or so will be the start of GF #2.
To me it makes sense to put GF #2 where the second-highest demand will be.
So I think GF #2 starts in Europe starting Q3 2016, and GF #3 starts in Asia perhaps early-mid 2017.
To me it makes sense to put GF #2 where the second-highest demand will be.
So I think GF #2 starts in Europe starting Q3 2016, and GF #3 starts in Asia perhaps early-mid 2017.
chickensevil
Active Member
I think most people wouldn't expect them to make amother factory until the first one is proven. Keep in mind also that they will also need a second/third auto factory at around the same timing. This to me says they will likely do an auto/battery combined at the same time, likely starting once they properly gauge model 3 demand. The battery might come a little before then, since they have an alternative market for that right now. So my guess is GF2 in late 2016 and AF2 in late 2017 maybe early 2018.
Stills at https://www.pinterest.com/pin/383720830728111866/
Let the discussion begin!
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