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Tesla BEV Competition Developments
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RobStark
Well-Known Member
DanCar
Active Member
When is Tesla going to show up in that pie chart? 
I don't doubt that this is all true. However, the iQ has "gas car type" styling, with a big hood and boxy shape. A good EV design, IMO, is more aerodynamic, like the Mercedes EQXX.
Aerodynamics, and efficiency in general, provide the luxury of longer range, faster charging, and less wind noise. The executives that directed and approved the styling of the iQ seem to have both feet firmly in the ICE world, with little understanding of EVs, IMO.
GSP
PS. With all that said, I do like the iQ, and I expect it will appeal to typical Cadillac buyers. That likely was a deliberate choice by GM, but I prefer more technically elegant designs.
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Did you mean 4680 Model Y and Cybertruck? Tesla's semi uses 2170 cells, for now at least.
GSP
RobStark
Well-Known Member
TFL towed 6500 lbs in a gas F-150 and a Silverado EV
F-150 has fuel tank options from 23 to 36 gallons.
F-150 has fuel tank options from 23 to 36 gallons.
Ford pauses construction on their big battery plant that they partnered with CATL on, as they aren't sure they can operate it competitively:
www.greencarreports.com
Ford pauses LFP battery factory touted as key for affordable EVs
The Marshall, Michigan LFP battery factory using CATL tech but run by Ford was touted in February as an important move toward EV affordability and profitability. Now in time for President Biden's visit, it's on pause.
BYD sold 431.6k BEVs in Q3. They have the potential to overtake Tesla in BEV unit sales in Q4.
Some pretty impressive numbers from BYD:
Doggydogworld
Active Member
BYD is still gunning for their (lowered) 3 million goal. Q4 is huge in China, so they've got a shot. They need to average ~310k/month.
Export sales were 28k in September, biggest month by far but still a bit less than 10% of total sales. BEV/PHEV mix was ~53/47, with PHEVs still the majority of domestic sales.
I think BYD will slightly beat Tesla in Q4 BEV sales. They came a lot closer than I expected in Q3. But BYD is much more seasonal, so Tesla will easily move back ahead in Q1 of next year. Tesla will be #1 in 2023 BEV sales by a healthy margin, say 1.8m vs. 1.55m. I expect them to retain the full year crown in 2024, by a slimmer margin.
Export sales were 28k in September, biggest month by far but still a bit less than 10% of total sales. BEV/PHEV mix was ~53/47, with PHEVs still the majority of domestic sales.
I think BYD will slightly beat Tesla in Q4 BEV sales. They came a lot closer than I expected in Q3. But BYD is much more seasonal, so Tesla will easily move back ahead in Q1 of next year. Tesla will be #1 in 2023 BEV sales by a healthy margin, say 1.8m vs. 1.55m. I expect them to retain the full year crown in 2024, by a slimmer margin.
BYD is like Walmart, no innovation and just pushing for increased sales, taking the low end
Tesla is on another plane, level, 4D chess with Cybertruck, FSD, Robotics, Robotaxi, Emergy, Supercharging
BYD is just making stuff, no high value
Like Walmart there is a place for BYD
Like Amazon innovative leadership, there is a place for Tesla
gglockner
Member
I realize TMC is a fan club, but some of us Tesla owners have legit issues with FSD. Robotaxi is another similar claim from Musk that was promised years ago and yet to be delivered.
Think about what’s in queue right now;
V12 FSD, Optimus, Highland in usa, CT, Semi, now MY refresh in usa, Powerwall 3, Neuralink Human trial, Lithium Refining, v4 supercharging, NACS adapter and non Tesla charging, Magic Dock, VPP, etc
Slow and steady it’s getting there
Competition are struggling more:
Merc level 3 is very limited in parameters of use
Ford cuts back on Lightening manuf numbers
Rivian switching focus to R1S
Lucid and Fisker numbers still low
Boston Dynamics still just dogs
UAW strike driving up labor costs
GM has Ultium production problems
Toyota is still not there yet with EVs
Etc
Btw, Tesla is now in rhe Magnificent 7
Tesla isn't perfect, but they are ahead of everyone else in some key areas: production volume, range, and fast charging. Tesla has demoed a lot of things that haven't been delivered, and the CEO has made quite a few very cringe worthy statements and dome some questionable things in the last year or two on top of that.
In most of the developed world all new cars are too expensive for a large chunk of the population. In the US the average age of a car on the road is over 12 years old and only something like 60% of the people buying new cars struggle to pay for it. Teslas have come down in price, but they are still a bit more expensive than the average car.
China has a very small used car market because their car market is still undergoing initial expansion, so there are a lot of very cheap entry level cars on the market. BYD is aiming for that market and doing well there. BYD would have to make changes to sell most of their line up in developed countries which would make their cars more expensive, but they probably will be among the cheapest cars on the market when they do break out of China. Right now they don't need to sell a lot of cars outside of China because the domestic market is buying up their entire supply.
FSD V12 - may or may not finally "work" as promised 7 years ago. Thought 1m robotaxis would be earning their owners $30k/year "for sure" by 2020?
Optimus - does not exist, no pricing announced, no launch date announced, etc. It's an R&D project.
Highland - it's a mid-model refresh. Every OEM does this.
CT - unveiled 4 years ago, has been pushed back a bunch, delivery event was supposed to happen in Q3 and didn't.
Semi - they cobbled together a few dozen for Pepsi and apparently haven't produced anymore since? Thought production was supposed to begin in 2019?
MY refresh in USA? You mean the re-released SR variant?
What does the Neuralink human trial have to do with Tesla or BEV competition?
There may be a gulf there over the competition, but you're also allowed to apply some critical thinking to Tesla's pipeline as well.
The beauty of this forum is a good debate
I respect all of your critique and all true
Let’s see on these six month milestones to achieve by Tesla:
Finish 2023 sales at $1.8M BEVs
Cybertruck deliveries start this Month Oct 2023
Neuralink human trial starts
Highland sales start in USA
Ground break in Gigamexico
4680 Gen 3 Battery Tech
Cybertruck sales, production and deliveries ramp up
Next phase for Optimus, I estimate Pilot in GigaTexas factory
Know I am missing more
for just six months it’s an amazing list
gglockner
Member
Folks, two things can be true at once:
- Tesla is the leader in EV sales and technology
- Musk has grossly overpromised again and again - off the top of my head: capability of Full Self Drive, availability of Cybertruck, Roadster v2, battery swap, robotaxi (and that doesn't include claims for other Musk businesses like solar, X/Twitter, ...)
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