I call this Elon Time. Its actually rather simple and is, I think, important to understand in the context of either a long term buy and hold Tesla investment, or in terms of a more short term trade based on technology like this.
Any "short term" (can be a few years) and specific technology is farther away than his prognostications. Frequently an unknown amount farther away due to the problem being nearly unsolvable.
Meanwhile seemingly miraculous results are regularly and routinely accomplished. Land an orbital class booster on a postage stamp in the ocean - spectacular failure, over and over, and not something that can be done... until it is, and now its routine and the rest of the industry gets asked why-not-you?
Profitable and fast growing EV line - people don't want them, they're too expensive, etc... All true and except for Tesla (and BYD?) the evidence agrees as the rest of the auto industry is helpfully proving. Until Tesla does it and demonstrates that it can be highly profitable.
Will first Cybertruck delivery be a quarter or 3, a year or 3, later than Elon originally thought / believed? Yes. Will it be a revolution in the truck market? I don't know, but there are a couple of things that I bet on: whether it becomes THE dominant truck, it will take a lot of truck market share and 2) it will be profitable. And it MIGHT destroy the GM / Ford / Stellantis truck businesses.
Will the electric semi and Roadster be later than originally claimed - yeah. Will there be electric semis as a result of Tesla pushing (and probably taking) the business? Most definitely.
I don't know when FSD, or fully autonomous, or robotaxi, or Optimus will happen. My guess is as good as anybody else. What I know though is that they will happen later than Elon originally talks about, and far earlier than they will happen without Elon and team pushing them.
The CT may be the cheapest and most available EV truck around and the used market may end up full of lightly used trucks. I read that a high percentage of people on the waiting list were Tesla enthusiasts who had never owned a full sized truck and didn't really know how much space they take up. There will probably be a number of early adopters who realize the CT is just too big for them.
I think the CT will likely put a dent in the recreational truck market, probably taking more market share from Jeep than anyone else. The full sized truck market dominated by the Big 3 is at least half commercial use trucks.
Companies that need service vehicles will buy the commercial chassis version of a light duty truck and modify it for their needs or will use a straight up truck as is if it meets their needs. This includes utility work, railroad service vehicles, ranchers, and a slew of other uses. Every government agency that needs to have vehicles onsite anywhere has pickup based vehicles. Every city, county, state, and the federal government have large fleets of these trucks. Out town has a population of about 14,000 and the city probably owns about 50 pickups. Some have custom boxes on the back and others are more or less stock.
Commercial use of those trucks is a major part of the Big 3's business.
Outside of companies using trucks, a lot of small business people own them: landscapers, handymen, house painters, etc. And then there are people who work for a company but have a truck for work use sometimes. My neighbor is a manager at a commercial electric company. He's always had full sized pickups because he's called on sometimes to haul stuff out to a job site. Though 90% of his hauling is his own hauling.
There are also people who don't need a truck for work, but either have a private use for one like hauling a trailer or they are renovating their house or something, and those who really don't need a truck, but want one. The buyers of the Big 3's trucks tend to be conservative (not necessarily politically) in their tastes and they tend to want a traditional truck shape. The people who want a different truck-like vehicle are buying Jeeps.
The CT is going to be a short bed truck which already limits it's market. The Big 3 make the same trucks in long and short bed versions. The Big 3's trucks all have the same basic shape because they make them to accept commercial boxes on the back which are available for any of the three brands and easily fitted. I'm not super familiar with that market, but if there are versions for different brands of trucks, the variations are minimal. The same box can be used on all three brands with little changes.
The CT is a completely different shape and won't take a standard commercial box. It's also not going to be a vehicle that can easily take a 4X8 sheet of plywood or drywall in the bed and close the tailgate.
The CT will have a niche, but because it is a radically different shape from a mainstream truck, its market is going to be limited. The fact that it will only be available in bare metal will also limit sales, a lot of people want a color choice in their vehicle. The glare on the hood is going to be bad. When the US quit painting their USAAF aircraft in 1944, it saved a lot of weight and sped up construction, but glare on the bare metal was a problem so the area in front of the cockpit was almost always painted to reduce glare. There will probably be an active aftermarket community painting or partially painting CTs.
The CT could end up being the AMC Pacer of trucks. The Pacer had phenomenal sales the first year and AMC thought it had a big hit on its hands. But the number of people who wanted a car like that was a minority. Once they got their hands on a Pacer the market dried up pretty quickly. In the final year of production dealers were having trouble giving them away.
FWIW Since roughly April 2019 it has done exactly what is advertised during the purchase.
It just hasn't done what the CEO aspirationally said he "hopes" or "thinks" or "feels confident" it will do some time in the future yet (including futures that have already come and gone)
Legally those are two very very different things.
The folks who bought prior to the April 2019 likely have a case though as we approach the oldest buyers being far enough back they're exceeding the average ownership length of a new car.
Yes, people started paying for FSD back in 2017 (possibly late 2016 I don't remember). I recall people here who were complaining their lease was almost up and they didn't have anything from their investment in FSD.
I'm on the sidelines with the whole FSD thing. My car is AP1 and can't do FSD. I was skeptical about the robotaxi thing from the start.
