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So, in order to terrify Porsche even further, Tesla needs to deliver the same number of Model S for 2016 and get through their existing orders for ~28,000 Model X, which would be (due to price differential on the Model X) >50% sales growth. With two wealthy cities (New Delhi and Shanghai) forcing people to not drive combustion engines every other day, and San Francisco starting to enact similar policies, I think that 50% YoY (Year over Year -- sales term) growth is far too conservative.
What makes more sense is that Model S sales growth is at least 20% at 60,000 units and Model X does 30,000 units. That's 80%sales growth.
If I were Porsche, especially, I'd be terrified. Good luck with Mission E.
Not yet, wait for their quarterly investor callHas Tesla stated their goals for 2016 yet?
Some more perspective, Porsche produced way less than this the past 13 years.
2002 - 55k cars (were they not taken seriously then?)
2003 - 73k cars
2004-2010 - 80-100k
2011 - 127k cars
2012 - 151k cars
2013 - 165k cars
source: Porsche - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
And of course, Porsche produce more than one model:- from the Wikipedia article link above
Reaching 50k Model S deliveries since its launch in 2012 is, I suspect, the real cause for concern for other manufacturers.
I like the Porsche comparison but I think these are the more "appropriate" numbers:
1995/1996 - 19,262 cars (or about Tesla in 2013)
1996/1997 - 32,383 - Tesla in 2014[...]
2000/2001 - 54,586 - similar to initial Tesla guidance in 2015 (it took Porsche until 2000 to crack the 50k threshold)[...]
2005/2006 - 96,794 - Tesla in 2016? (again, it took Porsche a few years to get up to about 100k)
So if you want, Teslas is trying to do in about 4 years what Porsche did in 10 years.
Has Tesla stated their goals for 2016 yet?
Has Tesla stated their goals for 2016 yet?
Elon has projected that the company will produce 1600–1800 vehicles a week in 2016, on average, with maximum capacity equal to 2000/week. 1700 vehicles per week would equal nearly 90,000 vehicles in 2016.
http://evobsession.com/tesla-trounces-17192-sales-in-4th-quarter/
anything more than 65k cars I would be very surprised.. or maybe not, as Tesla is prone to shoot out some random numbers and scale back..
Why be surprised? that's a significantly smaller percentage increase than they have ever done before, I'd be shocked if it was that low. So far Tesla has increased their production by well over 50% per year, not sure why you think this year will be less than 30%anything more than 65k cars I would be very surprised.. or maybe not, as Tesla is prone to shoot out some random numbers and scale back..
Here are the US 2015 EV production numbers by manufacturer for comparison ...
http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/
View attachment 106792
Here are the US 2015 EV production numbers by manufacturer for comparison ...
http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/
View attachment 106792
Some more perspective, Porsche produced way less than this the past 13 years.
2002 - 55k cars (were they not taken seriously then?)
2003 - 73k cars
2004-2010 - 80-100k
2011 - 127k cars
2012 - 151k cars
2013 - 165k cars
source: Porsche - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia