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So, in order to terrify Porsche even further, Tesla needs to deliver the same number of Model S for 2016 and get through their existing orders for ~28,000 Model X, which would be (due to price differential on the Model X) >50% sales growth. With two wealthy cities (New Delhi and Shanghai) forcing people to not drive combustion engines every other day, and San Francisco starting to enact similar policies, I think that 50% YoY (Year over Year -- sales term) growth is far too conservative.
What makes more sense is that Model S sales growth is at least 20% at 60,000 units and Model X does 30,000 units. That's 80%sales growth.
If I were Porsche, especially, I'd be terrified. Good luck with Mission E.
What makes more sense is that Model S sales growth is at least 20% at 60,000 units and Model X does 30,000 units. That's 80%sales growth.
If I were Porsche, especially, I'd be terrified. Good luck with Mission E.
SebastianR
Active Member
I like the Porsche comparison but I think these are the more "appropriate" numbers:
1995/1996 - 19,262 cars (or about Tesla in 2013)
1996/1997 - 32,383 - Tesla in 2014
[...]
2000/2001 - 54,586 - similar to initial Tesla guidance in 2015 (it took Porsche until 2000 to crack the 50k threshold)
[...]
2005/2006 - 96,794 - Tesla in 2016? (again, it took Porsche a few years to get up to about 100k)
So if you want, Teslas is trying to do in about 4 years what Porsche did in 10 years.
1995/1996 - 19,262 cars (or about Tesla in 2013)
1996/1997 - 32,383 - Tesla in 2014
[...]
2000/2001 - 54,586 - similar to initial Tesla guidance in 2015 (it took Porsche until 2000 to crack the 50k threshold)
[...]
2005/2006 - 96,794 - Tesla in 2016? (again, it took Porsche a few years to get up to about 100k)
So if you want, Teslas is trying to do in about 4 years what Porsche did in 10 years.
taurusking
Member
Hailing from India ....I can tell for sure that Model E will likely be very successful (if it is priced right) in India especially in New Delhi and Mumbai
green1
Active Member
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
Good production comparison data ... remember that Porsche was on the verge of Bankruptcy before they introduced the high volume SUVs.
Some Porsche execs have admitted privately that they are very concerned about Tesla eating their lunch ... witness the poor Panamera PHEV sales
Some Porsche execs have admitted privately that they are very concerned about Tesla eating their lunch ... witness the poor Panamera PHEV sales
Can I muse a little on this topic ? Yes, thank you...
Q4 2015 deliveres were 17400 cars.
It seems logical that 2016 deliveries should exceed that much on each quarter. Assuming 18000 average deliveries per quarter we would have 72k cars. I think its safe to say that Tesla's guidance will contain the 72k - 80k car range (probably lower bound below 72k and upper bound above 80k).
However if Tesla is confident it can ramp up production higher, considering the MX backlog, the range might be even higher.
But 80k is already a massive 60% production increase.
The 80k would be something like 18k cars for Q1/Q2/Q3 and an increase to 26k on Q4.
And total sales should include US$ 1 billion of Tesla Energy products. Total sales in the US$ 8 billion to US$ 9 billion and change range.
ZachShahan
Active Member
Elon has projected that the company will produce 1600–1800 vehicles a week in 2016, on average, with maximum capacity equal to 2000/week. 1700 vehicles per week would equal nearly 90,000 vehicles in 2016.
http://evobsession.com/tesla-trounces-17192-sales-in-4th-quarter/
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Manufacturing schedules don't work on 52 week years.
If they have a 50 week schedule and you use 1700 per week you get 85,000.
If they have a 48 week schedule and you use 1700 per week you get 81,600.
You not only have to get the rate correct per week you have to figure out how many weeks the lines will be down for holidays, retooling, or any other reason.
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
Here are the US 2015 EV production numbers by manufacturer for comparison ...
http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/
http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/
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green1
Active Member
Why be surprised? that's a significantly smaller percentage increase than they have ever done before, I'd be shocked if it was that low. So far Tesla has increased their production by well over 50% per year, not sure why you think this year will be less than 30%
Here are the US 2015 EV production numbers by manufacturer for comparison ...
http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/
View attachment 106792
So Worldwide 2015 BEV / plugin EV production is already at half a million ? That is awesome.
Double that and we have broken 1% of worldwide car production.
At 5% Oil analysts will have to acknowledge Oil demand is doomed to fall precipitously in 10 years.
Then we need articles demonstrating that BEVs are preferentially purchased by high mileage drivers.
Looking good, Mr EV !
Just from a manufacturing management perspective, isn't this in line with an aggressive start of a second manufacturing line, like what Tesla just did? As far as I'm concerned, Tesla set unrealistic goals, but accomplished the better side of realistic goals in the process. I hate liars but in the case of performance they are within the realistic range of what I expected, and what's more, on the higher side of possible outcomes from what I was expecting. It's definitely a downer because they overpromised and therefore underdelivered, but that's all their fault, and the factory seems to be chugging along just fine.
Now, I do wish someone (I used to dream of this myself) could go in there and get it going even faster, but that's for another person, and maybe another time and location.
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Here are the US 2015 EV production numbers by manufacturer for comparison ...
http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/
View attachment 106792
This chart sort of looks like Tesla is dragging all the other manufacturers along with it. The coattails produced 3x as much as Tesla in October-December 2015. 1/4 of all EVs is kind of excessive for an overpriced plasticy luxury sedan, so Tesla is still too much in the lead*. This will change when the Model 3 comes out because then Tesla won't be excessive if they sell 10x everyone else; they'll just be a normal car company then. But at that point, the other companies will actually have something to compete with and want to be part of that marketplace, and I say, good. Here's hoping any of that happens.
* I still want everyone who can afford one to get a Tesla currently, since it will help the environment, world, peace on Earth, and also Tesla the company with helping spearhead these goals. I am speaking mostly about market share and cost when I say "overpriced plasticy luxury sedan". I have a feeling we won't be having that problem forever so I'm not hanging my coat on the inferior interior.
Correction: I just noticed the two above charts don't agree. I guess everything I said is meaningless. Numbers don't lie. Sigh.
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myke3000
Member
Agreed.
Also not mentioned when comparing to a Porsche, is they have many more cars in their product line. 2 SUVs, a Sedan and several (5+?) Sports cars.
Tesla has the Model S, and just began production of the X, and have 1 retired Roadster. For being voted car of the year in several magazines, and consumer reports, et al, I think they have come a long enough way to be taken seriously.
While I see that they grew their deliveries quarter after quarter, they aim too high. Aim low, then surpass expectations. While they did make guidance, it was on the low end and caused analysts to reconsider the stock https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/tsla
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