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Superchargers and Future Capacity

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We know the Superchargers are "free for life" for Model S owners. Presumably that would be true of Model X as well. Perhaps not so for the Model E. A nominal fee would likely reduce the amount of "opportunity charging" and force Model E owners into only using them on road trips of when absolutely necessary thereby limiting demand.

I can't find the quote right now but Elon has made it clear on several occasions that all Teslas will be able to charge for free for the life of the car.
 
We know the Superchargers are "free for life" for Model S owners. Presumably that would be true of Model X as well. Perhaps not so for the Model E. A nominal fee would likely reduce the amount of "opportunity charging" and force Model E owners into only using them on road trips of when absolutely necessary thereby limiting demand.
Long term all SCs in sunny areas will have solar canopies, and all SCs will have stationary battery storage, eliminating any excess demand charging fees. I would expect Tesla to be able to earn return capital from SCs instead of paying for their operational costs. So I don't think your logic follows.
Offering free for life charging for all future Tesla cars (at least as an option) would be an important marketing feature that will appeal for the vast majority of customers (even those who don't travel).
 
I can't find the quote right now but Elon has made it clear on several occasions that all Teslas will be able to charge for free for the life of the car.

I don't think it's ever been in words that specifically included Model 3, but I may be wrong. In any case, it's worth remembering that Supercharging isn't really "free" (although that's good marketing speak) because you paid for it upfront and if you didn't it'll cost you $2,500 to have it enabled before you get "free" charging. Price is a great moderator of demand and Tesla could easily raise the "supercharger enabled" upfront cost on Model 3 to make sure the superchargers were not overloaded with cars.
 
I don't think it's ever been in words that specifically included Model 3, but I may be wrong. In any case, it's worth remembering that Supercharging isn't really "free" (although that's good marketing speak) because you paid for it upfront and if you didn't it'll cost you $2,500 to have it enabled before you get "free" charging. Price is a great moderator of demand and Tesla could easily raise the "supercharger enabled" upfront cost on Model 3 to make sure the superchargers were not overloaded with cars.

Here is a WAG (Wild Ass Guess) at the costs for a Supercharger per car. I tried to be pretty conservative with a general 40% derating (2.5x), and $0.16/kWh electricity cost. If all that is close, then the $2k that Tesla is charging is not too far off the target to cover about $900 for the Supercharger construction and $125 a year for electricity.

Supercharger Cost.png
 
I can't find the quote right now but Elon has made it clear on several occasions that all Teslas will be able to charge for free for the life of the car.

I've only ever heard it in reference to the Model S. After all, Tesla doesn't provide free charging for Roadster models.

- - - Updated - - -

Price is a great moderator of demand and Tesla could easily raise the "supercharger enabled" upfront cost on Model 3 to make sure the superchargers were not overloaded with cars.

I'd bet that if they do anything, that would be the way they'd go. There has even been speculation that if other vendors adopt Tesla's technology, it might be implemented that way too (i.e. an "enabling" fee).
 
I've only ever heard it in reference to the Model S. After all, Tesla doesn't provide free charging for Roadster models.
it hasn't been said directly, but a few other statements have been said that add up to the same thing.
- they've said that the model 3 will have supercharger access
- they've said that they don't want superchargers to require point of sale transactions because it adds unnecessary complexity and cost.

When you add those two statements together you get model 3 with "free" supercharging, the only real remaining question will be the up front cost of the SC access for Model 3 (to meet their price target, I bet it will be optional on the lowest models, just like it is on the MS60)
 
Just curious, what will happen out there in the end game with few ancient Model S EVs on the road?
Will Tesla shut down the rarely used SuperChargers? The sites are leased are they not?
"Free For Life" doesn't guarantee there will be hundreds of convenient sites will it?
.
As a Quite Senior Citizen I am confident I will not see the end days for EV.
Just curious for I have never seen the fine print.
~Larry
 
Just curious, what will happen out there in the end game with few ancient Model S EVs on the road?
Will Tesla shut down the rarely used SuperChargers? The sites are leased are they not?
"Free For Life" doesn't guarantee there will be hundreds of convenient sites will it?
.
As a Quite Senior Citizen I am confident I will not see the end days for EV.
Just curious for I have never seen the fine print.
~Larry

That's a good question, and really hard to predict right now. I think that in Tesla's vision for the future, fourth through tenth generation Tesla EVs with compatible Supercharger ports will still be using them when the last model S gets retired, so the network will just continue to grow and evolve.

Honestly, at this point I think that for this not to happen would require some sort of radical disruptive change - either the (highly unlikely) outright failure of Tesla, or a massive change to our lifestyle. They've started out on a path toward a better world that won't be easily swayed.
Walter
 
The Supercharger isn't going to be obsolete in the foreseeable future. What is there that's going to become obsolete?

  • The Model X and Model 3 will share the Model S connector, because there's no reason to change it (and lots of reasons not to). So the user base for the existing plug will be in the millions.
  • The Tesla connector is able to handle at least 135 kW, but it's quite possible that it will go much higher. But even if the Tesla Model 7 introduces a new, bigger plug, the Supercharger can be designed with twin heads, one to support the Model 7 and the other to support Models S through 6. Tesla might even design this hypothetical Model 7 with twin ports, one for the old style and one for the new MegaSupercharger, so that the Model 7 can use all the existing infrastructure of HPWCs installed at better hotels everywhere.
  • DC power? That's not going out of style. Tesla may choose to upgrade sites to higher wattage, but there's no disruption to the user experience.
As @Saghost notes, the demise of Tesla could disrupt things, but at this point I think if Tesla were to run into problems, it will get bought, not liquidated. Then we'll have to see what Daimler/Apple/Google/Samsung wants to do with the Superchargers.
 
Long term all SCs in sunny areas will have solar canopies, and all SCs will have stationary battery storage, eliminating any excess demand charging fees. I would expect Tesla to be able to earn return capital from SCs instead of paying for their operational costs. So I don't think your logic follows.
Offering free for life charging for all future Tesla cars (at least as an option) would be an important marketing feature that will appeal for the vast majority of customers (even those who don't travel).

This concept sounds good, but in reality the amount of energy generated by the solar canopy would be only a tiny fraction of that needed to cover the charging of vehicles. The pictures showing the solar canopies are mostly feel-good PR opportunities. I don't expect solar canopies in many locations.
 
This concept sounds good, but in reality the amount of energy generated by the solar canopy would be only a tiny fraction of that needed to cover the charging of vehicles. The pictures showing the solar canopies are mostly feel-good PR opportunities. I don't expect solar canopies in many locations.

I agree. I have a fairly new 33 panel system and average less than 40kWh per day here in sunny San Diego. It would take quite a large canopy to charge more than a few cars a day.
 
This concept sounds good, but in reality the amount of energy generated by the solar canopy would be only a tiny fraction of that needed to cover the charging of vehicles. The pictures showing the solar canopies are mostly feel-good PR opportunities. I don't expect solar canopies in many locations.

I second this. I have a 16 panel system in very sunny Manteca that only offsets my utility bill by about $120/month.
 
This concept sounds good, but in reality the amount of energy generated by the solar canopy would be only a tiny fraction of that needed to cover the charging of vehicles. The pictures showing the solar canopies are mostly feel-good PR opportunities. I don't expect solar canopies in many locations.

I dunno. On the one hand, I can't argue with your immediate point - if the stalls are getting a lot of use, they will certainly be using more power than the panels are producing.

On the other hand, Tesla is in this for the long haul, the panels are very durable and fairly cheap - and they can likely get some discounts through their Solar City partners.

Solar is getting to the point where it makes financial sense for the average consumer without incentives and pays back in the 5-10 year range. I don't see why the payoff calculations would be a lot different for Tesla - so it seems to me like Tesla would come out ahead on the money investing in solar instead of just banking the money for future electricity usage.

As you said, it's also good PR for them, and it is a quality improvement for the Supercharger stall - the drivers get out of the sun/rain/snow while they charge.

Every little bit helps, and I'm thinking Tesla likely will install solar canopies where they can (obviously going to be very site dependent,) even though your point about usage is valid.
Walter
 
This concept sounds good, but in reality the amount of energy generated by the solar canopy would be only a tiny fraction of that needed to cover the charging of vehicles. The pictures showing the solar canopies are mostly feel-good PR opportunities. I don't expect solar canopies in many locations.

Cost. It's not about making the canopies on the Superchargers produce all the power, it's about having something that offsets and reduces cost overall.
I'd suggest that first they'd want cheap batteries, and then they go for a mass install of storage and canopies.

Where a canopy would generate well, I'd expect it'd also help keep things cooler and reduce overhead.
 
Other factors that will play into charging capacity for future Teslas will be charging speed and battery capacity. Both can and probably will increase in the future. A friend installs Chargepoint chargers at businesses in Silicon Valley. Mostly Nissan Leafs are used by their employees. They NEED to charge during the day since their battery capacity won't get them home otherwise. So he's happily installing more chargers. Next step the companies are limiting times allowed at the chargers. A problem that will continue until technology improves.

Get in the charger installation business.
 
I agree. I have a fairly new 33 panel system and average less than 40kWh per day here in sunny San Diego. It would take quite a large canopy to charge more than a few cars a day.

I second this. I have a 16 panel system in very sunny Manteca that only offsets my utility bill by about $120/month.

The supercharger canopy at Tesla may not be typical but it is interesting to note that it has approximately 100 panels. I would expect other canopies to be smaller but still likely to have more panels than the average home owners system.

Good discussion on this topic at http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/25792-Solar-power-complemented-Superchargers



solar canopy.PNG
 
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The solar panel market is still advancing by leaps and bounds. The cost of existing solar PV tech is dropping, while more advanced tech should make it to the market. 40% efficient panels at today's prices per WattP will be a reality by 2030 or sooner. Current typical panels being deployed by solar city are still at the 15% range, I think. A large solar canopy shown at reply #37 (200 square meters) should get 1MWh worth of raw solar energy daily, with 35% total efficiency that's 350kWh in electricity generation daily. But is there some reason Tesla would be forbidden from covering more than its own stalls, after all that canopy is also a nice shade in the summer ?
For SC solar canopies, the critical aspect is higher efficiency solar panels, Solar City acquisition of Silevo might lead to 25% efficient panels at economic prices for Tesla within just a few years.
And with feed in tariffs, nothing forbids Tesla from just having its own large solar PV farm to offset the remainder of its energy consumption, say in the AZ/NM/TX desert as far south as possible.
1 square Km = 1GW worth of solar radiation at peak hours, or 5GWh / day. Typical panels being installed are still in the low teens in efficiency.

Like I said, this solar canopy game Tesla's best interests might be better served by waiting many years, as technology is improving Solar PV economics. Waiting until there are close to a million Tesla's in the road might not be a bad deal.
 
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There are economies of scale and scope. As VolkerP points out up thread, we know from queuing theory that adding incremental chargers to an existing station has a disproportionately great effect on reducing expected wait times. The economy of scope is even simpler: the Murdo, South Dakota SC is necessary for one car to travel along that route, but it will be a very long time before its 4 stalls need expanding.

The point of this? As Tesla cars become more numerous, the cost per car to Tesla for providing Supercharger support will fall.
This is very true. Even if Tesla has difficulty adding new stalls to existing Supercharger Stations, they can incrementally add capacity by stacking more chargers in the same footprint. Even though individual cars may not charge at a faster rate, the throughput of the Station could greatly improve at times of congestion because the second car sharing a Supercharger could receive a greater amount of the available capacity.

Although it may require changing the design of the Supercharger cabinet, that added throughput could be achieved without leasing additional space.

Larry