Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements

[FluxCap]

I'm out! Have to sleep tonight. Please (!!!) remind me tomorrow (when TLSA jumps to 250+) that profit-taking is ok.

Taking profit isn't just OK, it's the ultimate point of short-term options trades. I too have learned that for my portfolio, weekly options and other short-term instruments are to be used to take advantage of overly large price movements that one expects to reverse, or particular data that the market is not interpreting correctly, only when one has a sound thesis to back them up. Otherwise, might as well be in Vegas.

As for core shares, no I don't think it's wise to move in and out of those with great frequency. Have a strategy that isn't just following the herd, buy and hold for the long-term investment thesis, and never risk what you can't afford to lose.

Caveat: I am not a financial advisor, please invest at your own risk and don't do what I say.

 

[InTheShadows]

I wouldn't say you always have to be in when the news hits. I made a lot on what I bought this morning. And I also made some more on what I bought with profits this afternoon. Though I haven't closed that position yet. That speculation for a continued rally tomorrow.

I also bought some weekly otm puts near market close today in case there is a pull back tomorrow. I'm actually hoping for a pull back then continue the rally, that way I can make money off of both positions. Time will tell, but hey, that's what we pay for by buying otm weekly options.

I'm trying to learn how to play both sides.

I would rather sell too soon than hold too long. I have had many times when I held too long only to see all those gains vanish into thin air. Never regret taking a profit too early.

 

[chickensevil]

So today I am feeling the pain of not being able to sell off those options... but I am still up nicely for the week so far and if we can recover back to where we closed yesterday and then propel forward tomorrow I should still come out about the same which will make me very happy. I am still up 150% for the week on my TSLA option portfolio, so I really can't complain

 

[32no]

I remember someone posted an article somewhere which had Jerome Guillen (I think?) commenting on battery prices and it was in German (I think?). Does anybody still have a link to that article? Perhaps it wasn't Jerome Guillen and it wasn't in German, but the article was about Tesla's battery prices and included these numbers: $186/kWh, $130/kWh.

 

[MikeC]

I remember someone posted an article somewhere which had Jerome Guillen (I think?) commenting on battery prices and it was in German (I think?). Does anybody still have a link to that article? Perhaps it wasn't Jerome Guillen and it wasn't in German, but the article was about Tesla's battery prices and included these numbers: $186/kWh, $130/kWh.

Excellent interview with Jérôme Guillien

 

[anticitizen13.7]

TSLA is about where it was at the beginning of the month. What a roller coaster... up to $260 in the wake of the 'D' announcement, down to $222 on the fabricated news from Ward's, back to just under $240 today.

I am left wondering if the stock will rise on the hype of potential Q3 earnings. There are lots of unknowns. X marks the spot with the buried treasure?

 

[32no]

Excellent interview with Jérôme Guillien

Thanks MikeC, but that wasn't it. I just found it: Elon Musks Gigafactory: - manager magazin

 

[chickensevil]

Thanks MikeC, but that wasn't it. I just found it: Elon Musks Gigafactory: - manager magazin

Not seeing the 186 number. The article says the price is somewhere between 200 and 300. Which I think everyone knows this... If it is actually 186 that would be per big news! 136 by 2017/2018 is pretty bold. And on a nice party toward 100 or less needed to hit full cost parity to an ICE.

 

[Derek Vinyard]

Not seeing the 186 number. The article says the price is somewhere between 200 and 300. Which I think everyone knows this... If it is actually 186 that would be per big news! 136 by 2017/2018 is pretty bold. And on a nice party toward 100 or less needed to hit full cost parity to an ICE.

if you read the 3rd page http://www.manager-magazin.de/unter...r-jerome-guillen-im-interview-a-998892-3.html Gerome says that Elon's goal is to reduce the battery costs up to 30% but he says this is a "very conservative" assumption as they want to acheive cleary more than that. Halving the price should be possible.

 

[chickensevil]

if you read the 3rd page http://www.manager-magazin.de/unter...r-jerome-guillen-im-interview-a-998892-3.html Gerome says that Elon's goal is to reduce the battery costs up to 30% but he says this is a "very conservative" assumption as they want to acheive cleary more than that. Halving the price should be possible.

I get that, that is where the 136 number comes from, I assume. But what about the 186? Are you suggesting that is just the conservative 30% that Jerome was suggesting?

If 136 is half then currently they would be paying 274 (which seems a little high... but I will go with it). A 30% reduction from that would be 191... so that doesn't seem quite right either... I am still confused on what the 186 number is supposed to be.

- - - Updated - - -

In other news, if we get a run up from this Barclays note I am selling off my options for sure before the ER. It does seem like the premarket is currently down though, so we shall see.

 

[Derek Vinyard]

I get that, that is where the 136 number comes from, I assume. But what about the 186? Are you suggesting that is just the conservative 30% that Jerome was suggesting?

- - - Updated - - -

In other news, if we get a run up from this Barclays note I am selling off my options for sure before the ER. It does seem like the premarket is currently down though, so we shall see.

sorry, haven't found any numbers you are mentioning. But, yes, according to the interview, Guillen says that the 30% intended cost reduction is a very conservative estimation.

pre-market is a bit down due to concerns that Fed might increase interest rates erlier than anticipated.
despite the good news:

Gross domestic product grew at a 3.5 percent annualized rate in the three months ended September after a 4.6 percent gain in the second quarter, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. It marked the strongest back-to-back readings since the last six months of 2003. The median forecast of 87 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 3 percent advance.

 

[chickensevil]

sorry, haven't found any numbers you are mentioning. But, yes, according to the interview, Guillen says that the 30% intended cost reduction is a very conservative estimation.

pre-market is a bit down due to concerns that Fed might increase interest rates earlier than anticipated.
despite the good news:

The article that 32no posted had this in it (from google translate):

Currently, the cost is according to the company at 200 to $ 300 per kilowatt hour.A target price of about $ 130, as Guillen suggests it in an interview with manager magazin online, but in industry circles is considered to be extremely ambitious."This is for the time being nothing."

And he was also the one with the 186 number... so don't look at me, I am just as confused on that one.

 

[chickensevil]

Whelp, this morning I sorta screwed up my sale... got out of my 232.50 options today at the open and was clicking through the screen too fast because I was half distracted by other things going on, that I sold them for way less than I meant to, but oh well, a win is a win. I am happy enough with about 250% return on this. Too bad I couldn't sell it back two days ago when I wanted to because it would have been north of 7.00, but I have learned that being in restricted funds is no good and to be careful about trying something like that again in the future.

 

[austinEV]

Whelp, this morning I sorta screwed up my sale... got out of my 232.50 options today at the open and was clicking through the screen too fast because I was half distracted by other things going on, that I sold them for way less than I meant to, but oh well, a win is a win. I am happy enough with about 250% return on this. Too bad I couldn't sell it back two days ago when I wanted to because it would have been north of 7.00, but I have learned that being in restricted funds is no good and to be careful about trying something like that again in the future.

You made 250% buying a phantom derivative product using money you didn't have that day, by pushing buttons on a computer (or phone). Don't beat yourself up

 

[Derek Vinyard]

Whelp, this morning I sorta screwed up my sale... got out of my 232.50 options today at the open and was clicking through the screen too fast because I was half distracted by other things going on, that I sold them for way less than I meant to, but oh well, a win is a win. I am happy enough with about 250% return on this. Too bad I couldn't sell it back two days ago when I wanted to because it would have been north of 7.00, but I have learned that being in restricted funds is no good and to be careful about trying something like that again in the future.

+1

 

[Citizen-T]

You made 250% buying a phantom derivative product using money you didn't have that day, by pushing buttons on a computer (or phone). Don't beat yourself up

I should print this out and tape it to the top of my monitor. I need that reminder often.

 

[chickensevil]

You made 250% buying a phantom derivative product using money you didn't have that day, by pushing buttons on a computer (or phone). Don't beat yourself up

Haha! Thanks I wasn't beating myself up, just a little disappointed. And you are correct, because they were restricted funds it was technically money I didn't actually have.

 

[SBenson]

Does anyone know when 2017 LEAPs will come out?

 

[AlMc]

Does anyone know when 2017 LEAPs will come out?

Nov 17th

 

[Lessmog]

Originally Posted by austinEV You made 250% buying a phantom derivative product using money you didn't have that day, by pushing buttons on a computer (or phone). Don't beat yourself up :smile:

Haha! Thanks :biggrin: I wasn't beating myself up, just a little disappointed. And you are correct, because they were restricted funds it was technically money I didn't actually have.

Still, such hard work can leave some sore callouses. :crying: