sleepyhead's Q2 Earnings Preview

[marvinat0rz]

Wow. Dead on. Mad respect and hats off. Congratulations, and thanks for your brilliant analysis =D

 

[sleepyhead]

Thanks guys. I could not have put this together without the wealth of information and contributions from the members here on TMC. This truly is a special place to be.

I hope that at least one person decided to buy some shares and made some money based on my analysis. That makes all the work worthwhile.

 

[Electroman]

I simply cannot believe that someone can do such an accurate analysis. Just 7M off of 558M. That is close to 99% accuracy.

You beat the pants off all those Wall street analysts..

 

[Sparky]

I hope that at least one person decided to buy some shares and made some money based on my analysis. That makes all the work worthwhile.

I did. Woke up this am and saw the drop and considered things for about 30 secs before throwing some more shares into the pot at $133.50.
Thanks for your hard work and insight.
Tomorrow's my factory tour. I will enjoy the drive up!

 

[mershaw2001]

Thank you to all who participated. At the drop today, I bought all that i could based on the analysis here.

 

[twinklejet]

Perhaps sleepyhead, julian, curt and all the others who have put in so much effort into not only analyzing but providing and reporting their analysis for the benefit of the rest of us here can provide their paypal (yes elon's old project) email addresses or something for donations especially those who have made or will make a million or two thanks to these awesome guys! Call it a virtual beer?

 

[Norse]

Perhaps sleepyhead, julian, curt and all the others who have put in so much effort into not only analyzing but providing and reporting their analysis for the benefit of the rest of us here can provide their paypal (yes elon's old project) email addresses or something for donations especially those who have made or will make a million or two thanks to these awesome guys! Call it a virtual beer?

I totally agree, but there are so many. What sold me Tesla is Sal Demir. I have also got alot of help from sleepy and Johan. Julian, Curt, CapOp and alot of others have really been helpful aswell. But yes, I will donate.
This forum is just so great. I just hope its stays this why, tho something this good, really cant last forever.

 

[Jack6591]

Julian, Curt, Sleepyhead I thank you. My kids thank you. My ex-wife (dammit) thanks you.

You guys are the best.

 

[arashlzy]

Thanks Sleepy, Premium Coffee on me next time you are in LA

 

[emupilot]

I hope that at least one person decided to buy some shares and made some money based on my analysis. That makes all the work worthwhile.

The combination of your analysis, others like it here at TMC, and all the online articles showing the cluelessness of everyone outside this forum convinced me to get more call options yesterday and today. My retirement account will benefit nicely from it tomorrow. Thank you!

 

[Mitthrawnuruodo]

Thanks Sleepyhead, I expect to make more money tomorrow than I did all last year. Going home shopping this weekend

 

[Mitthrawnuruodo]

someone on the forum predicted that after a Q2 beat the NHTSA would release its 5 star crash rating. Holy crap you were spot on!!!

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/19915-NHTSA-crash-tests-videos

 

[gym7rjm]

Thank you sleepyhead. I made money from your analysis. If we ever cross paths... drinks on me.

 

[makinthdonuts]

Yeah thanks Sleepyhead, you nailed it with your analysis. Though this may be the last ER to catch Wall St. off-guard, I'm happy for everybody who got in early and enjoyed the show today.

 

[Johan]

Yeah thanks Sleepyhead, you nailed it with your analysis. Though this may be the last ER to catch Wall St. off-guard, I'm happy for everybody who got in early and enjoyed the show today.

Logically you should be right - this would be the last "big surprise" earnings. HOWEVER, those guys are STUPID so let's talk again as we approach Q3 call

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Huge thanks! My brokerage jacked up my account today and gave me more calls than I wanted, which now turned out to be good but thanks to everyone here (especially your numbers) I stayed cool and kept them, which should treat me well tomorrow

 

[DaveT]

Huge thanks! My brokerage jacked up my account today and gave me more calls than I wanted...

Wow, that's awesome. Great day (of any day in the calendar year) for your brokerage to give you more calls than you wanted.

 

[kevin99]

someone on the forum predicted that after a Q2 beat the NHTSA would release its 5 star crash rating. Holy crap you were spot on!!!

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/19915-NHTSA-crash-tests-videos

So who predicted it? Who wants to claim it?

 

[sleepyhead]

I just looked at Tesla's Q2 numbers and for pure auto numbers excluding any credits or development services Tesla got:

$497,347 of revenue and $430,001 in cost of revenue for a gross margin of 10.3% on pure autos, 13.5% on autos + GHG/CAFE credits, and 22% including ZEV credits.

I modeled in :

$484,000 of revenue and $430,560 in cost of revenue for a gross margin of 10.0% on pure autos, 13.1% on autos + GHG/CAFE credits, and 23.1% including ZEV credits

I overstated ZEV by $11 million, since it looks like market prices for ZEV credits are coming down, hence ZEV revenue will drop off quickly as predicted by Elon on Q1 CC.

 

[kevin99]

I just looked at Tesla's Q2 numbers and for pure auto numbers excluding any credits or development services Tesla got:

$497,347 of revenue and $430,001 in cost of revenue for a gross margin of 10.3% on pure autos, 13.5% on autos + GHG/CAFE credits, and 22% including ZEV credits.

I modeled in :

$484,000 of revenue and $430,560 in cost of revenue for a gross margin of 10.0% on pure autos, 13.1% on autos + GHG/CAFE credits, and 23.1% including ZEV credits

I overstated ZEV by $11 million, since it looks like market prices for ZEV credits are coming down, hence ZEV revenue will drop off quickly as predicted by Elon on Q1 CC.

Remarkable!

Funny things is I wasn't aware of your model until this morning after I was busying capturing the dip and putting in my bet. This forum has strict rule about not posting links or things like that. However that is how i missed it!