Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[dirtyofries]

House Republicans send Trump a wish list including trashing Tesla and climate policies

“The Tesla guy”

The Freedom Caucus wants to make hay in the Department of Energy, listing numerous conservation and energy efficiency regulations being used to address climate change. That includes rules on batteries, boilers, air conditioners, battery chargers, and vending machines, among other things. They also tackle the government’s alternative fuels program and push to scrap the Renewable Fuels Standard. In doing so, lawmakers took specific aim at one California tech luminary whom they claim has used government fuel subsidies to build his empire.

“Billions of dollars have been sunk into this program for years,” the lawmakers write. “In fact, Elon Musk, the Tesla guy, has been subsidized by taxpayers to the tune of $4.6 billion.”

 

[Irishjugg]

That's not how it works. If someone quotes someone you have ignored, you will see that poster's post, but you will not see the post they have quoted from the user you've ignored. It's silly.

But for real, how are people still responding to, I assume, myusername?

He's being extremely reasonable lately and making relevant posts and posting charts. He's not Brian or Monroe or some of the other actual trolls. It's just that his premises are wrong . (just poking fun there myusername)

 

[Rarity]

It would be a productive exercise for.....¿someone?...to go through that list to determine how many US employees each of those firms has. Tesla, without SpaceX, currently is at 25,000, with another 13,000 coming on board.

Can you unpack that Tesla number and the source?

I thought that as of Q3, the total employee count was 13k for Tesla, 15k for SolarCity, and ~6k for SpaceX.

 

[Irishjugg]

it's just a pattern I noticed that I expect will either end at some point, but is creating mild short squeezes. if $198 gets heavily broken and it doesn't recover to it, I think this suggests whatever is causing this pattern is ending... or there could be another dramatic upswing this afternoon in the range of $203 to $205... where it then continues.

So is the premise of the pattern, small short squeeze, short time trading roughly flat, then another small short squeeze roughly following the underlying diagonal line? Seems to match recent trading.

 

[erthquake]

I wonder how a guy like Trump, with his emphasis on job creation, will see the self driving car

Well, self-driving cars are coming whether he likes it or not. Would he rather they be made in the US or somewhere else?

More to the point is automated factories, though I don't think Trump is insightful enough to see that far down the line (2-4 years). If he complains about automation, simple retort is, would you rather have automated factories here, or in Europe/China? Plus, Trump likes big, material displays of superiority/strength. Big US factories like those in Fremont, Buffalo and Sparks would be impressive to Trump, even if there's only a minimum of workers.

 

[Irishjugg]

good point... i guess i subconsciously couple Tesla's very high risk with what I see as these risks being glossed over and not accurately portrayed... that's my perspective.

Makes sense, and explains a decent amount of our disagreement. In general I agree with things that you say at least in risks land (demand and 'we can't know for sure until later' type thoughts obviously excluded), I just see the same things, add track record and get a result that makes me more positive and less cautious, where it makes you more cautious.
In doing analysis I've realised that given the general market is more aligned to your type of thinking lately than my own, that my returns would have been higher if I used your bearish/short timing as my swing trades sell exit timings. I've let a few go waiting on a slightly higher stop and missed out on those profits being there to buy more on the eventual bottoms or sub 180 runs.

I for one would be interested in more visibility to when you switch positions or thesis if you wouldn't mind. Hopefully it doesn't cause you too much abuse lol.

 

[JBRR]

It would be a productive exercise for.....¿someone?...to go through that list to determine how many US employees each of those firms has. Tesla, without SpaceX, currently is at 25,000, with another 13,000 coming on board.

Quick google research:
All numbers are US numbers unless otherwise states.

Apple 73k About - Job Creation - Apple

Alphabet: 69k worldwide Alphabet Announces Third Quarter 2016 Results - Investor Relations - Alphabet

Microsoft: 64,336 Facts About Microsoft | News Center

Amazon: 152,000 Full-time jobs at Amazon grow at rapid pace in first quarter

Facebook (2015/7) - 5479: https://fbnewsroomus.files.wordpress.com/2015/07/2014-eeo-report.pdf

Intel: (2016/6): 53,672 : https://www-ssl.intel.com/content/d...n/diversity-2016-progress-report-addendum.pdf

Oracle: 53,798 Workforce - Corporate Citizenship Report | Oracle

IBM best guess: 84,350 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/51143/000104746916010329/a2226548zex-13.htm - IBM Promises to Hire Americans as Tech Executives Set to Meet Trump

Cisco: (2015): 36,222 21-year Cisco employee headcount by line item

Tesla: (2016/11) : 25,000+ Tesla has now over 30,000 employees (25K in US) after SolarCity/other acquisitions

Spacex: 4000+: Company

 

[Intl Professor]

Yes.

Cook does look like he's constipated while Elon comes off as just a regular guy.

 

[Turing]

House Republicans send Trump a wish list including trashing Tesla and climate policies

“The Tesla guy”

The Freedom Caucus wants to make hay in the Department of Energy, listing numerous conservation and energy efficiency regulations being used to address climate change. That includes rules on batteries, boilers, air conditioners, battery chargers, and vending machines, among other things. They also tackle the government’s alternative fuels program and push to scrap the Renewable Fuels Standard. In doing so, lawmakers took specific aim at one California tech luminary whom they claim has used government fuel subsidies to build his empire.
“Billions of dollars have been sunk into this program for years,” the lawmakers write. “In fact, Elon Musk, the Tesla guy, has been subsidized by taxpayers to the tune of $4.6 billion.”

Remember most of the "freedom caucus" people were pretty #nevertrump because he is librul during the primary. Even though most fell in line during the GE, they still aren't very close to Trump if you look at his transition team and cabinet so far.

And, while Mr. Trump and the few dozen members of the Freedom Caucus may share the anti-establishment mantle, the caucus has yet to forge a relationship with the president-elect, potentially squandering an opportunity to help shape the party’s agenda. In assembling his presidential transition team, Mr. Trump has, so far, turned instead to less hard-line members of Congress.

The earliest and most ardent backers of Mr. Trump, like Representatives Chris Collins and Lee Zeldin of New York, and Tom Marino and Lou Barletta of Pennsylvania, are not Freedom Caucus members. They come from the kind of Rust Belt districts that buoyed Mr. Trump to victory last week.

Underscoring the effect of early loyalty to Mr. Trump, the president-elect announced on Friday that Mr. Collins, Mr. Marino and Mr. Barletta would all be on the executive committee of his presidential transition team. Representatives Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee and Devin Nunes of California, who once called the members of the Freedom Caucus “lemmings with suicide vests,” are also on the committee.

Ideologically, Mr. Trump’s most fervent supporters in Congress break with the Freedom Caucus in important policy areas.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/14/u...uld-defang-anti-establishment-gop-caucus.html

 

[Curt Renz]

Not to distract from your excellent post, Curt, but isn't it funny that Trump, of all people, might be encouraging others not to tweet?

My suspicion is that Trump wants to be the first to tweet about the meeting. Doing so should then be the signal to the other participants that they are free to do so.

 

[appleblossom]

generalenthu, Today at 10:23 AM
Can I go a little off-topic and request those who are tracking delivery numbers to update rest of us on how we are trending for year end. Also a little worried about how the polar vortex might impact Midwest and north east deliveries. Hopefully, there is not a lot more to deliver in those regions.

I just got back from the Devon Pa service center. It has two large parking lots and both were packed with cars for delivery. The service adviser said they are so jammed with deliveries it's interfering with their service schedules. Oh, and it's 22F here today.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Statement regarding the Meeting with tech execs by Trump Transition Team:

Readout of President-Elect Trump’s Meeting with Tech Leaders

 

[vgrinshpun]

generalenthu, Today at 10:23 AM
Can I go a little off-topic and request those who are tracking delivery numbers to update rest of us on how we are trending for year end. Also a little worried about how the polar vortex might impact Midwest and north east deliveries. Hopefully, there is not a lot more to deliver in those regions.

I just got back from the Devon Pa service center. It has two large parking lots and both were packed with cars for delivery. The service adviser said they are so jammed with deliveries it's interfering with their service schedules. Oh, and it's 22F here today.

One of the parking lots (on the right facing the building from the road) is usually reserved for service/loaners, while the other lot is used by sales.

Are you sure that some cars on the service side of the building were for delivery, rather than loaners/cars being serviced?

 

[erthquake]

Statement regarding the Meeting with tech execs by Trump Transition Team:

Readout of President-Elect Trump’s Meeting with Tech Leaders

"Climinating barriers preventing American companies from doing business in other countries"

Freudian slip?

 

[SunCatcher]

I wonder how a guy like Trump, with his emphasis on job creation, will see the self driving car

The point Trump needs to get, is that this technology (autonomous driving), along with all the rest, is coming, no matter what. And if we let it get introduced by another country first; well then so long to "America the Greatest", and all that jazz. America became great through innovation and embracing the future, not clinging stubbornly to the past. Let the geniuses do their work, and give them the support they need (as Trump said he wants to do). Will Trump give these tech giants the support they need? Or will he give greater support to those industries that are so economically threatened by them? Oil, and the legacy automakers for example, fail if the emerging disrupting technologies succeed. If there ever was a hard time to predict the future, this is it.

 

[GoTslaGo]

I wonder how a guy like Trump, with his emphasis on job creation, will see the self driving car

It seems he's ok with it, since he appointed Musk (Tesla) and Kalanick (Uber) to his strategic and policy forum advisor group. This group includes Mary Barra (GM), and Dimon, etc... This link has a list of who's on the group.

Trump hails Uber’s Kalanick and rockets SpaceX’s Musk to positions on Strategic and Policy Forum

 

[3Victoria]

"Climinating barriers preventing ...

What is the meaning? No dictionary entries. Made up word?

 

[SuperDragon]

I was really expecting some kinda Trump bump today

٩◔̯◔۶

 

[erthquake]

What is the meaning? No dictionary entries. Made up word?

The word is supposed to be "Eliminating," but I thought the Clim suggested the writer had climate on his/her mind. I'm sure they didn't. Just thought it was interesting typo.

 

[Papafox]

Does anyone here believe that the 2% drop TSLA saw yesterday after the fed interest rate announcement is an appropriate response, considering that the NASDAQ fell about 1/2 of 1 percent? There's little reason for TSLA's drop yesterday afternoon to have been this great, given the news. Personally, I believe that the very low volumes and momentary negative market sentiment yesterday afternoon allowed the short sellers to get a lot of bang for their buck with their selling during that time period.

Overall, since the SCTY merger, I see the shorts having difficulty getting the same level of traction with the mandatory morning dip and with capping. The late afternoon decline into close seems to be the last strategy right now that's really working for them. Once longs realize this technique, some will save dry powder for late afternoon trading, which will diminish the value of the late-afternoon selling strategy.

As for the discussion about 198 being a critical price point, I agree, but it's more an issue of a tug-of-war between TSLA wanting to run higher and shorts trying to keep the stock below this price point to prevent technically-oriented longs from jumping in. Shorts have a lot to lose if TSLA settles comfortably above 200 this week, and they're willing to expand their holdings to prevent such a move for now. Let's hope they're unsuccessful.