Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[sunhelm]

Elon out of the equation when you mull over this... he's a brilliant marketer... but that really isn't relevant when the "rubber hits the road".

What are you smoking over there in ....Denver?

 

[ggr]

Does anyone here believe that the 2% drop TSLA saw yesterday after the fed interest rate announcement is an appropriate response, considering that the NASDAQ fell about 1/2 of 1 percent? There's little reason for TSLA's drop yesterday afternoon to have been this great, given the news. Personally, I believe that the very low volumes and momentary negative market sentiment yesterday afternoon allowed the short sellers to get a lot of bang for their buck with their selling during that time period.

Overall, since the SCTY merger, I see the shorts having difficulty getting the same level of traction with the mandatory morning dip and with capping. The late afternoon decline into close seems to be the last strategy right now that's really working for them. Once longs realize this technique, some will save dry powder for late afternoon trading, which will diminish the value of the late-afternoon selling strategy.

As for the discussion about 198 being a critical price point, I agree, but it's more an issue of a tug-of-war between TSLA wanting to run higher and shorts trying to keep the stock below this price point to prevent technically-oriented longs from jumping in. Shorts have a lot to lose if TSLA settles comfortably above 200 this week, and they're willing to expand their holdings to prevent such a move for now. Let's hope they're unsuccessful.

It increases the cost of borrowing, so if one's assumption is that TSLA will need more cash, it hurts TSLA a little bit. OTOH, if one assumes TSLA doesn't need more cash, it doesn't matter. The net effect is negative for companies that need cash to expand.

 

[Kenriko]

It increases the cost of borrowing, so if one's assumption is that TSLA will need more cash, it hurts TSLA a little bit. OTOH, if one assumes TSLA doesn't need more cash, it doesn't matter. The net effect is negative for companies that need cash to expand.

Also increases the cost of borrowing for people buying cars. It's a negative for people who need to finance expensive purchases (companies, cars, equipment etc..)

 

[Turing]

yes... Tesla is a massive player in many other games in the future... and could deploy trucks in the future... and they have a lot of innovation and products that they "will" provide in the future... but for some reason... everything that justifies TSLA share price is in the future... and where we disagree is this: "And really, wheres the risk?"

So you figured out that tesla is a growth stock, congrats.
Growth Stock

the list of companies that are backing off/having problems with autonomous vehicles is: Apple, Google, Uber... they are not idiots... they've spent real dollars exploring this area and decided to retract... and for some reason they just don't get it like Tesla does?

everything with Tesla is high risk... everything.

I would say that these companies are shifting more towards tesla's model of incremental advanced driver assist >>> self driving deployment. Take Uber who is launching "self driving" test cars in a few markets with drivers - really these systems are just advanced driver assist at this point, with the driver still taking over fairly often and still "in charge" of the car. Tesla has a huge advantage here in that techie people are paying them and buying their AP2 cars by the 10,000's per quarter and doing the driver assist 'human still in charge' incremental development for them. So while Uber putters around with dozens of test cars, Tesla is doing a similar approach with 10,000's of neural network connected cars on the road daily. I personally am convinced that the incremental approach will win out, like a child learning to ride a bike with training wheels, you know when the training wheels are unnecessary when the child is no longer ever relying on them. This will happen with advanced driver assist systems, at some point they will get good enough that it becomes a rare situation that the driver ever needs to take over, once you have billions of miles showing that drivers never need to take over anymore, then you have a compelling argument that you are ready to shift responsibility away from human drivers.

 

[Kenriko]

I would say that these companies are shifting more towards tesla's model of incremental advanced driver assist >>> self driving deployment. Take Uber who is launching "self driving" test cars in a few markets with drivers - really these systems are just advanced driver assist at this point, with the driver still taking over fairly often and still "in charge" of the car. Tesla has a huge advantage here in that techie people are paying them and buying their AP2 cars by the 10,000's per quarter and doing the driver assist 'human still in charge' incremental development for them. So while Uber putters around with dozens of test cars, Tesla is doing a similar approach with 10,000's of neural network connected cars on the road daily. I personally am convinced that the incremental approach will win out, like a child learning to ride a bike with training wheels, you know when the training wheels are unnecessary when the child is no longer ever relying on them. This will happen with advanced driver assist systems, at some point they will get good enough that it becomes a rare situation that the driver ever needs to take over, once you have billions of miles showing that drivers never need to take over anymore, then you have a compelling argument that you are ready to shift responsibility away from human drivers.

That's an important point, Google has been at this for 8 years? and only has racked up ~2 million miles. Tesla is doing Billions of miles.

 

[techmaven]

Remember the Daily Kanban hit piece article that mistakenly calculated that Tesla's Fremont plant was only permitted to build about 200,000 vehicles a year?
Docs Reveal: Tesla's Production Capacity Limited To Less Than Half Of Its 500,000 Vehicle Target - DailyKanban

Well, the Bay Area Air Quality Management District just posted some relevant materials, including a proposed permit:
Tesla Motors Inc

The Statement of Basis provides a lot of detail, including that that BAAQMD feels that Tesla is should be permitted to build 520,000 vehicles a year.

From that document:

Tesla Motors, Inc. (Tesla) has submitted this application to modify three existing paint shops that are referred to as the North Paint Shop, the Truck Line Paint Shop, and the Plastics Paint Shop

Sources that are part of the Truck Line Paint Shop will be merged with the North Paint Shop and sources that are part of the Plastics Paint Shop will be merged with the South Paint Shop. New equipment will also be added to the North Paint Shop. This evaluation report is limited to discussing sources/abatement devices at the North Paint Shop.

Sources from the Plastics Paint Shop and South Paint Shop will operate under the current permit conditions and limits and are not being modified. Any modifications will require a permit application in the future.

Prior to Tesla, the plant was owned/operated by the “New United Motor Manufacturing, Inc. (NUMMI)”. NUMMI used to manufacture cars and trucks. NUMMI ceased its operations on October 22nd, 2010 and the ownership of the plant was transferred to Tesla on the same day.

Unlike NUMMI, Tesla only manufactures cars. Tesla manufactured 23,004 Model S cars in 2013 and expects the combined demand for its Model S car and Model X (crossover utility vehicle) to be 520,000 units in 2018. The proposed modifications to the North Paint Shop discussed in this report are required to accommodate an increase in demand for Tesla vehicles. Tesla has proposed to use the same type of coatings that are currently being used but in much larger quantities. Tesla has contended the increased coating usage coupled with enhanced overall efficiency (capture efficiency x control device destruction efficiency) will reduce emissions from existing permitted levels.

The document further goes through BACT for a number of emissions and determines that Tesla's proposal for emissions for 520,000 vehicles meets requirements. From their letter to the EPA:

The District has made a preliminary decision to issue the renewal Major Facility Review Permit, but the final decision on the permit issuance will consider public and EPA comments on the proposed permit. The notice inviting written public comments will be published in the East Bay Times (Fremont Argus). The final date for members of the public to submit comments is January 20, 2017.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

The document further goes through BACT for a number of emissions and determines that Tesla's proposal for emissions for 520,000 vehicles meets requirements.

"and expects the combined demand for its Model S car and Model X (crossover utility vehicle) to be 520,000 units in 2018. "

Uh oh, did someone tell Tesla yet that the TSLA analysts have decided Tesla won't be able to meet that demand?

 

[brian45011]

It increases the cost of borrowing, so if one's assumption is that TSLA will need more cash, it hurts TSLA a little bit. OTOH, if one assumes TSLA doesn't need more cash, it doesn't matter. The net effect is negative for companies that need cash to expand.

Interest rates in both the ABL and the Warehouse line float. The stronger USD means raw materials and parts sourced internationally may be cheaper, and products sold internationally in local currency will return less margin.

 

[Turing]

why do you think Tesla is more capable than Google, Apple, Uber, GM, Mercedes, etc.?... try taking Elon out of the equation when you mull over this... he's a brilliant marketer... but that really isn't relevant when the "rubber hits the road".

If you want to be taken seriously stop with this rubbish, a brilliant marketer couldn't have started a now successful rocket company that has defied most experts and pulled off historic ocean landings of the first stage and brought down cost to space.

What many of the skeptics of Elon miss is something that Peter Thiel commented on in the Vance book, which in Thiel's words was that Elon is incredibly talented at finding and recruiting top talent and that may be his biggest advantage. He personally hired many of the people that later became known as "the paypal mafia". Spacex defied critics who said it would fail, because Elon brought together very talented people from the start. You saw a good glimpse of this during the whole George Hotz recruitment email leak - Elon on top of running two companies employing 10,000's of people collectively - was still personally aware of him and trying to recruit him. Sure Hotz was dead set against working for a big corporation and wanted to shoot out on his own, but it was still comforting as an investor to see that someone like this in the self driving space was on Elon's radar and Elon was personally in contact with him and it is likely that had he decided to work for a big company, it would have been Tesla and Elon's efforts that won him over.

 

[Alketi]

That's an important point, Google has been at this for 8 years? and only has racked up ~2 million miles. Tesla is doing Billions of miles.

Yep -- this is the difference between fleet deployment and running 60 prototype vehicles around a couple of cities. If my napkin math is correct, Tesla should have over 15 million miles now on AP 2.0 hardware, assuming

- The first deliveries arrived November 1st,
- 2,000 cars/week
- 30 miles/day
- 210 miles/week

 

[MikeC]

Valuation doesn't Matter. I like keeping up with this case just for sugars and giggles.

Alleged Musk Impersonator Drops Claim Tesla Hacked His Account

 

[Turing]

That's an important point, Google has been at this for 8 years? and only has racked up ~2 million miles. Tesla is doing Billions of miles.

I don't think the market has yet appreciated what an accomplishment putting AP2 into production in 2016 was. When i last checked, Volvo has the closest comparable hardware suite, but as i remember it wont go into production cars until 2020.

 

[larmor]

Remember the Daily Kanban hit piece article that mistakenly calculated that Tesla's Fremont plant was only permitted to build about 200,000 vehicles a year?
Docs Reveal: Tesla's Production Capacity Limited To Less Than Half Of Its 500,000 Vehicle Target - DailyKanban

Well, the Bay Area Air Quality Management District just posted some relevant materials, including a proposed permit:
Tesla Motors Inc

The Statement of Basis provides a lot of detail, including that that BAAQMD feels that Tesla is should be permitted to build 520,000 vehicles a year.

From that document:



The document further goes through BACT for a number of emissions and determines that Tesla's proposal for emissions for 520,000 vehicles meets requirements. From their letter to the EPA:

Related to this topic, is that fake news is far more endearing and believable than actual news, as reported from an interview with Craig Silverman from buzzfeed on NPR.

Fake News Expert On How False Stories Spread And Why People Believe Them

This likely why there is so much FUD articles regarding telsa and 'risk' baked into tesla which is basically making cars all ready ordered, which are high end and high gross margin. Worrying that tesla doesnt know the capacity of its paint plant, is like saying tesla has never seen a spreadsheet nor does it own any computers to run said spreadsheet.

 

[Papafox]

Close today at or below 197.99? That is what I think the shorts want. Let's see what happens.

My guess is that volume will determine much of what happens in the final half hour of trading.

 

[Irishjugg]

If you want to be taken seriously stop with this rubbish, a brilliant marketer couldn't have started a now successful rocket company that has defied most experts and pulled off historic ocean landings of the first stage and brought down cost to space.

What many of the skeptics of Elon miss is something that Peter Thiel commented on in the Vance book, which in Thiel's words was that Elon is incredibly talented at finding and recruiting top talent and that may be his biggest advantage. He personally hired many of the people that later became known as "the paypal mafia". Spacex defied critics who said it would fail, because Elon brought together very talented people from the start. You saw a good glimpse of this during the whole George Hotz recruitment email leak - Elon on top of running two companies employing 10,000's of people collectively - was still personally aware of him and trying to recruit him. Sure Hotz was dead set against working for a big corporation and wanted to shoot out on his own, but it was still comforting as an investor to see that someone like this in the self driving space was on Elon's radar and Elon was personally in contact with him and it is likely that had he decided to work for a big company, it would have been Tesla and Elon's efforts that won him over.

What you say is correct, but Elon absolutely is an excellent marketer. I can't really figure out why people here disagree with that.

On a ~0 ad budget Tesla has built an enormous following, period. That's marketing, this following didn't exist just because Tesla made a great car. Tesla doesn't have YouTube videos with millions of views about how great is car is, the ones with millions of views are about "insane mode" "ludicrous mode", articles talk about "bioweapon defense mode" and "falcon wing doors."
That's marketing, and Elon is one of the best at marketing currently in the world.

 

[Chop110]

Close today at or below 197.99? That is what I think the shorts want. Let's see what happens.

My guess is that volume will determine much of what happens in the final half hour of trading.

I agree. There seems to be a concerted effort to cap the stock price over the last three hours. It's psychological more than anything. The hope is that if you keep the SP from growing, you buy time until the next convincing FUD news that will spook/frustrate longs into losing their nerve and moving on.

 

[3Victoria]

Well, I hope so because I would like to buy some more cheap stock Its eventually going to go up, so every buying opportunity is a good thing for longs.

 

[Papafox]

Close today at or below 197.99? That is what I think the shorts want. Let's see what happens.

My guess is that volume will determine much of what happens in the final half hour of trading.

197.58. Yawn, same old game. The problem is that most investors don't see what's going on.

 

[Chop110]

That was a lot of volume over the last couple of minutes. Looks like the big guns are being saved for the end.

 

[JBRR]

GM is bringing its self-driving Chevy Bolt EV program to Michigan for testing, claims it will be first to market