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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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I felt it at the time, yesterday when I read them, but now it is clearer. Our enthusiastic analysis of the meeting yesterday is symptomatic of what is called faith in small numbers (cf. recent book by Michael Lewis--I forget the names of the psychologists he profiles). By definition here we are fans of Tesla. Do you think for a minute there are fans of the iPhone looking so "analytically" at the expression on Tim Cook's face? Is there an iPhone investors thread? Apple, yes, but you get the idea.
 
I felt it at the time, yesterday when I read them, but now it is clearer. Our enthusiastic analysis of the meeting yesterday is symptomatic of what is called faith in small numbers (cf. recent book by Michael Lewis--I forget the names of the psychologists he profiles). By definition here we are fans of Tesla. Do you think for a minute there are fans of the iPhone looking so "analytically" at the expression on Tim Cook's face? Is there an iPhone investors thread? Apple, yes, but you get the idea.

I think it's a mistake to try and read too much into that short video clip. The biggest takeaway I got was just how much Trump relied on Peter Thiel, I knew Thiel was a supporter but I did not know that Trump held him in as high regard as he seems too. Which is great since he founded PayPal with Elon and they are friends.
 
I think it's a mistake to try and read too much into that short video clip. The biggest takeaway I got was just how much Trump relied on Peter Thiel, I knew Thiel was a supporter but I did not know that Trump held him in as high regard as he seems too. Which is great since he founded PayPal with Elon and they are friends.

Yeah, he gave him that awkward little hand rub.
 
I felt it at the time, yesterday when I read them, but now it is clearer. Our enthusiastic analysis of the meeting yesterday is symptomatic of what is called faith in small numbers (cf. recent book by Michael Lewis--I forget the names of the psychologists he profiles). By definition here we are fans of Tesla. Do you think for a minute there are fans of the iPhone looking so "analytically" at the expression on Tim Cook's face? Is there an iPhone investors thread? Apple, yes, but you get the idea.

EM chooses his words very carefully. He chose to say 'building rockets, and cars, and solar stuff in the US – actually really excited about expanding our manufacturing footprint in the US'. Note he did NOT say 'electric cars'. He also said 'solar stuff'....brilliant. He didn't go there to lecture, but to show how he's hiring tens of thousands of Americans. Kissing the ring, to be sure.
 
Apparently sweet-talking Trump was not that inspiring - not a word from Elon. Awkward - as in champagne vs. beer...

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Please Please Please people, when responding to someone, be sure to quote them in your post. That way those that have chosen to not participate in certain conversations don't have to figure out what the heck you are talking about.
And don't assume that posting right after the post to which you are replying means that a half dozen other posts haven't occurred before you can click "Post Reply".
 
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a breakdown of market value of those seats:

Apple — $616 billion
Alphabet — $555 billion
Microsoft — $489 billion
Amazon — $366 billion
Facebook — $347 billion
Intel — $173 billion
Oracle — $167 billion
IBM — $160 billion
Cisco — $154 billion
Tesla — $32 billion
SpaceX — $15 billion
Total — $3.074 trillion


It would be a productive exercise for.....¿someone?...to go through that list to determine how many US employees each of those firms has. Tesla, without SpaceX, currently is at 25,000, with another 13,000 coming on board.
 
Apparently sweet-talking Trump was not that inspiring - not a word from Elon. Awkward - as in champagne vs. beer...

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Mum seems to have been the word for the meeting. I am not aware of any of the participants having commented about it. After the group meeting, Musk and Cook were supposed to meet individually with Trump. So far no tweets about the meetings from any of those three. I'm assuming that has been at Trump's request.
 
here's a short's take...

what you currently have from tesla in relation to level 4/5 automation are a number of promises... not successes... and now you are watching the most capable companies roll back investments and getting shut down... these are not examples of companies that can't compete with Tesla... instead this is real time data emphasizing my (and others) negative sentiment towards the stock pumping statements being made by many companies suggesting that they're going to "really soon" start replacing everything we've known about personal transport for the last century with robot cars... and Tesla has now cornered itself by marketing the M3 to be the solution to all of this.

I commend all of these companies for trying... but this &$*# is HARD!!!... and many will fail at trying... but while Apple, Google and Uber fail... their core business is not dented a bit... but Tesla on the other hand is propped up on promises based on completely incredible challenges like this, massive manufacturing scaling, disrupting energy sector, etc.

you might see your list as competitors falling off... while I see it as examples of the ridiculous challenges Tesla has risked it's entire company and shareholders with.

why didn't they just make the M3... and leave this kind of stuff as extra credit?

This is useful, thanks. And while I agree Musk often bites more than is healthy to chew, I have yet to see Tesla fail at stuff that matters.
They've already achieved impossible, self-driving is waaaaay less scary than walking a tightrope of developing car from scratch, by the company that didn't exist 20 years ago, and scaling such company with limited capital, while developing new technology.

I think you just underestimate what Tesla has done already - think deeply about challenges. For example, Lucid motor has to: develop car, hire people that have logistics experience, establish relationships with parts suppliers, hire people that can build factory, get place, contractors, permits, money for factory, find production line people, engineer line, find suppliers for line equipment, find people in remote locals that can open service center, buy/rent property, find contractors to build service center, get local sales people, train them, oh yeah right, create training, right, develop training, hire trainers... This is just a beginning, you can see how this becomes way complicated as you expand over the globe; problems at every task will slow you down, and cost lots of money. And Tesla has overcome that and much, much more.

There is a lot I don't like about Musk and how he manages expectation, but in terms of getting results, he's insanely capable of getting it done. World doesn't notices this clearly, as Elon over-promises stuff before it's done, and dilutes in the process shock value of achievements (I have theory why, that would get me many 'Dislikes' ;).

Anyhow, in the context, about self driving, he's got this.
 
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Mum seems to have been the word for the meeting. I am not aware of any of the participants having commented about it. After the group meeting, Musk and Cook were supposed to meet individually with Trump. So far no tweets about the meetings from any of those three. I'm assuming that has been at Trump's request.

It looks like Bezos did comment on the meeting.
 
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Mum seems to have been the word for the meeting. I am not aware of any of the participants having commented about it. After the group meeting, Musk and Cook were supposed to meet individually with Trump. So far no tweets about the meetings from any of those three. I'm assuming that has been at Trump's request.
Not to distract from your excellent post, Curt, but isn't it funny that Trump, of all people, might be encouraging others not to tweet?
 
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I want to emphasize that I have no idea what I'm doing, and the source of these metrics might not even be solid.

Assuming the metrics are correct, it would indicate that the agents using the dark pools (typically agents who have wants to move bigger volumes without alerting markets until they are done. Institutions, market makers, etc) Have been net sellers the last 10 ish trading days.
I'm hesitant to draw conclusions though because the reason for the selling could be many. It could be the case that market makers are just rebalancing option positions to stay neutral.

The GEX number shows how many shares the market makers have to buy/sell for each % the market moves. When that number is high and positive they will be selling when market moves up and vice versa. The previous days GEX in TSLA was -100k ish and moved to +30k ish last 2 days.

Delta Neutral

Does your subscription to this data allow access to historical data? If so, can you do back test of this data vs. actual aggregate change in holdings as reported in 13Fs? Thanks
 
Seems that problem that delayed delivery of 5 seat MX is solved, and they are being delivered.

5 seater delivery | Page 2 | Tesla Motors

That said, My DL called to day. I dug a lot of info out of him today to share with everyone. The part that is being redesigned and replaced is the manual level. Some mechanical part inside that lever did not meet QA and must be redesigned and manufactured. It might or might not look different from what we all have seen BUT there is no fancier look for the bench seat. The second row not only can fold down flat but also can recline way way back. That is new to me.

.....

seventeenkeys | December 14, 2016
Got mine today

 
I think it's a mistake to try and read too much into that short video clip. The biggest takeaway I got was just how much Trump relied on Peter Thiel, I knew Thiel was a supporter but I did not know that Trump held him in as high regard as he seems too. Which is great since he founded PayPal with Elon and they are friends.

Thiel's firm also is an investor in SpaceX. And remember, there are no conflicts of interest in politics. ;)
 
I just found a thread in the Australia & New Zealand subforum, that I thought was worth mentioning here: TACC - No Line Markings - Country Victoria
Another example that Autopilot is world-beating... despite the title, he's actually using Autopilot.

Yes, I have noticed this too with AutoPilot. It will now approximate a lane (lighter gray lane surrounded by dark) even when it has no "blue lines" or a car to follow. Before 8.0 it would just give up and ask you to take over. Sorry off topic...
 
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