Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Papafox]

I compute the arbitrage gap between SCTY and TSLA as about 7.5% now, which is a long way from the 30% gap we saw at one point. SCTY closed slightly up today. Once buyers see no real advantage in buying their shares at SCTY versus at TSLA, some of the drain in TSLA buyers will disappear.

There always is some risk in buying SCTY instead of TSLA, though, and there's little reason to believe the gap will close to 0% unless SCTY shows us something amazing soon about its stand-alone potential.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

I compute the arbitrage gap between SCTY and TSLA as about 7.5% now, which is a long way from the 30% gap we saw at one point. SCTY closed slightly up today. Once buyers see no real advantage in buying their shares at SCTY versus at TSLA, some of the drain in TSLA buyers will disappear.

There always is some risk in buying SCTY instead of TSLA, though, and there's little reason to believe the gap will close to 0% unless SCTY shows us something amazing soon about its stand-alone potential.

I doubt it will either. Today I picked up TSLA rather than SCTY since the gap isn't as big before. I may buy more SCTY if the gap increases. As more certainty before the vote there will be closing gap. I'll buy SCTY if the gap is closer to >15% or better

 

[sundaymorning]

Not sure if this has been posted regarding consumer reports top pick. The model S received 100

Top Cars in Consumer Reports' Road Tests

 

[Novice]

The SP went down on relatively high volume this time, when the DJI was up.
Why will the shorts not strike on the day before when there was macros to boost their attack ? Weird logic , and given the chance of a rebound on Monday from product release

 

[dakh]

Not to get too excited, but I looked into the html source code on my M3 reservation page based on one of the commenter's on Elektrek's story. The page contains hidden elements for confirming the order. It also says:

'When confirmed, the Tesla Factory will begin sourcing parts to manufacture your <span class="car-name"></span> and your deposit will become non-refundable.</p>'

And another code snippet:

'<span id="delivery-acceptance-date" class="hidden">October 14, 2016</span>'

And another snippet:

'
<div class="modal-body">
<p>Please review and accept your <a id="termsAndConditionsLink" href="" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> Model 3 Order Agreement</a>. This document is attached to your order receipt emailed on <span id="orderPlacedDate"></span>.</p>

<button id="modal-confirm" class="btn-primary">Accept</button>

<div id="terms-acceptance-masquerading-error" class="alert alert-error hidden">
<p>Only customers can accept Terms and Conditions.</p>
</div>'

Now my guess is this is generic code for any Tesla reservation holder. Never ordered a S or X, so maybe someone who has can confirm reading such text before.

Ok so another theory of what Tesla can do,either on Monday or some other time close by is this: publish the full spectrum of options and prices for Model 3 and have people convert reservations to orders.

 

[Intl Professor]

I have just received an e-mail from Schwab concerning the two special meetings called for the merger. Through the proxyvote site I have voted the Tesla shares my wife and I own. I may have missed it, but haven't voted the Solar City shares we have but I will asap.

 

[graphix25]

Tesla Proxy Statement for Solar City Acquisition

Meeting Date: November 17, 2016
For Holders As Of: September 23, 2016

Proxy Statement
https://materials.proxyvote.com/Approved/88160R/20160923/NPS_299107.PDF

 

[graphix25]

The case for Autopilot 2.0 on Monday. As other's have pointed out, Tesla is a creature of habit. Both the original autopilot announcement in 2014 and release of the software in 2015 both happen October. Seems natural to have a 2.0 announcement and their plan in October, two years after 1.0 came out. We know from August Recode that there was a planned autonomous announcement that would be "next level". The push of all inventory out of the channel in Q3 with aggressive discounting. Alignment to factor shutdown in first week of October as the 2.0 hardware is a major overhall of those systems. The need to get the 2.0 hardware out in field shipping in volume to bring the cost down for Model 3 in late 2017. All signs point to Monday being autopilot 2.0.

October 10, 2014 (D Event and autopilot hardware 1.0)
Dual Motor Model S and Autopilot

October 14, 2015 (Autopilot Software Launch)
Your Autopilot has arrived

It also makes sense they will be doing this as a blog post or video announcement rather then an actual event. Nothing to demonstrate physically with autopilot 2.0 unlike a car launch. Demand for the Model s/x is going to the Moon, or is that Mars if indeed we have 2.0 shipping now.

 

[Fallenone]

I'm with Fidelity and just received an email from them about how to vote on the merger.

 

[SΞXY P100D]

Any theories behind the spike of over 1/2 million TSLA shares traded after hours last night?

IMG_9755

• SΞXY P100D
• Oct 15, 2016

IMG_9755

• SΞXY P100D
• Oct 15, 2016

 

[AlMc]

I'm with Fidelity and just received an email from them about how to vote on the merger.

Received TD Ameritrade notifications at 2:35est

Just another data point

 

[Lessmog]

Lessmog said: ↑
^^ Yet another example of the tangible damage done here by those concern trolls with the eternal flow of nonsensical if somewhat tangentially plausible queries that clog up this thread and camouflage real information. Look, I have no problem with bona fide questions and worries, even if they may appear silly on their face, but it seems to me that some posters are doing their damnedest to derail us. Regrettably it sometimes does, too, because many others can't help trying to help.

I'm not sure what you meant here, but it has reminded me of my newfound interest to subdue my usual effort to expect more of those I love when it comes to the discussion of the stock price topics, because my usual encouragements via critical looks at stuff could be interpreted (incorrectly) as reason to devalue or even fodder to look for FUD to devalue an otherwise better valued stock. This has been a hard lesson for me.

I was just referring to doctoxics' missing the correction to a quote on present run rate as 2400, which is more likely to be this year's exit run rate. This info had drowned in the flush of back-an-forth with some username or other over several pages.

Yourself and many others do contribute greatly to the quality discussion here, which makes it even more regrettable that so much gets lost due to a few others spewing. It may be hard to avoid in practice, but still ...

 

[dmckinstry]

Received TD Ameritrade notifications at 2:35est

Just another data point

I'd already packed my laptop when I'd seen the proxy information was send via email. I get all my email on the laptop.
Timestamped about 10:45 pdt. I sure didn't read the entire 320 pages of the pdf file. But did follow the boards recommended votes on both my brokerage accounts.

P.S. Vote early and often.

 

[bdy0627]

How is Tesla expected to unveil the new product? Just a new post on their blog? I can't find any indication about how it will come. Graphix post is a sound one about this just being a blog or video. I was thinking it would be bigger than that for AP2.0 but it appears not. That isn't likely to adjust the SP much, I wouldn't think.

It seems we will need some analyst updates to get this stock moving up again. A major change in sentiment. That is only likely to come in the short term in response to a surprise Q3 ER, which doesn't seem likely. Most appear to be expecting Tesla to achieve minimal profit or a slight loss for Q3. I think the SP already reflects that expectation. It seems unlikely that Tesla will show a substantial surprise on that. Maybe a guidance surprise though? Without a surprise ER, then what about a surprise substantial enough to change sentiment when Tesla does the merger financials on Nov. 1. How likely is that??? It will take an awful lot to change the market's current gloomy outlook about this merger. The more I have thought about all of this, the more I believe the SP may just hover and at least not decline. This idea of TSLA being in the penalty box looks like it has some serious legs.

 

[Lump]

How is Tesla expected to unveil the new product? Just a new post on their blog? I can't find any indication about how it will come. Graphix post is a sound one about this just being a blog or video. I was thinking it would be bigger than that for AP2.0 but it appears not. That isn't likely to adjust the SP much, I wouldn't think.
.

Probably another conference call with reporters, Elon will describe the product then talk about how excited he is & expects owners will "Love it" & he "thinks its going to be great" along with a unrealistic release date.

 

[PaulRocket]

Look at the first and the last page of the Tesla SolarCity merger proxy vote:
https://materials.proxyvote.com/Approved/88160R/20160923/NPS_299107.PDF

I'm thinking this is our first look at the new solar roof

 

[landis]

Received TD Ameritrade notifications at 2:35est

e*trade at 2:21est

 

[JBRR]

Friend of mine had access to a Bloomberg Terminal for a few days. Was kind enough to grab a few shots of short interest.

 

[JRP3]

Not sure if this has been posted regarding consumer reports top pick. The model S received 100

Top Cars in Consumer Reports' Road Tests

Get ready for SA spin article: Model S Drops From 103 to 100 in CU Ratings Disaster!!!11111

 

[BobSk]

Last night I received voting emails from TD and Wells Fargo. I have voted "For" on all of them.

This is obvious but in case someone missed it: if you have multiple accounts with one broker, you get multiple emails listed as one line in Gmail. You need to go through them one at a time in order to vote every account.

I don't have e-delivery with Vanguard, I expect paper forms from them soon. I will call them if I don't get in mail within a week.