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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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I'm not an expert but considering that other car companies that are presumably behind Tesla have talked about self-driving in less than ten years, it seems like it's coming sooner than that. But yeah I agree that almost for sure that the regulations will lag the actual technology. I think Musk made that claim because that is what their genuine aim is for, or maybe that was not for full autonomy, we'll see how close they come I guess.

One thing that's playing out it the news right now, is the potential to increase safety. My hunch is that as it becomes more apparent that autonomous is both possible and a huge safety increase, the effort to get there will keep increasing too, so the pace is just going to get faster and faster with safety as a driver, no pun intended.

It can happen sooner, I am no expert on this either although I know quite a bit about AI and computer science. Anyone investing in Tesla I don't think should give much weight to when it is going to happen based on Elon's statements. Normally you can sort of trust his predictions but have to add some time to them but in this case I don't think that is valid considering how much work is left and how much progress has been the last year on this. The rate of improvement is basically too slow and there is no clear path to get this done soon.

That said, I think it has considerable value to the company that they are leading in this area because of safety and just general coolness. AP will be very useful (and is already) before full autonomous driving with sharing fleet is possible.
 
It can happen sooner, I am no expert on this either although I know quite a bit about AI and computer science. Anyone investing in Tesla I don't think should give much weight to when it is going to happen based on Elon's statements. Normally you can sort of trust his predictions but have to add some time to them but in this case I don't think that is valid considering how much work is left and how much progress has been the last year on this. The rate of improvement is basically too slow and there is no clear path to get this done soon.

That said, I think it has considerable value to the company that they are leading in this area because of safety and just general coolness. AP will be very useful (and is already) before full autonomous driving with sharing fleet is possible.

Quick analogy: Deepmind came out of nowhere with a Go algo that was not expected to be developed for another decade.

Elon said that autonomous cars are almost a solved problem, which is not surprising because people have been at it a lot longer. Google presumably has better AI models and frameworks, but Tesla has more data by far. And in this field, more data trumps better models.

The hang up seems to be productionalizing this and couple of years seems to be a reasonable timeframe. Remember here, the objective is to make autonomous cars not perfect, but demonstrably better than humans and it feels to me that Elon is trying to stress this point a lot, mostly for the regulatory audience. This is definitely an achievable target in a couple of years.


Tesla may put money where its mouth is, and offer a cheaper insurance product as part of SMP 2 or otherwise. This is a wild ass guess, but it would at least shut the critics up.
 
I'd be beyond shocked if it wasn't just a software limited 75kwh battery
I think it is a sw limited, as all performance are the same as the 75 except for the range.
That's why I find interesting they haven't just copy pasted the "upgradable" sentence from the S studio.
Anyway, like Papafox is saying, most likely it's still work in progress, or they will read it here and fix it quickly
 
Quick analogy: Deepmind came out of nowhere with a Go algo that was not expected to be developed for another decade.

Elon said that autonomous cars are almost a solved problem, which is not surprising because people have been at it a lot longer. Google presumably has better AI models and frameworks, but Tesla has more data by far. And in this field, more data trumps better models.

The hang up seems to be productionalizing this and couple of years seems to be a reasonable timeframe. Remember here, the objective is to make autonomous cars not perfect, but demonstrably better than humans and it feels to me that Elon is trying to stress this point a lot, mostly for the regulatory audience. This is definitely an achievable target in a couple of years.


Tesla may put money where its mouth is, and offer a cheaper insurance product as part of SMP 2 or otherwise. This is a wild ass guess, but it would at least shut the critics up.

Yeah, you are right about DeepMind and that they have done some breakthroughs the last years. But if a breakthrough is needed, then the time-frame is really hard to predict. It might also not come from Tesla.

Solving and use full autonomy for example as a airport shuttle service will be much easier than doing the across the country trip that Elon laid out as target. It is kinda obvious of course. Such service could use special hardware that is not in the consumer cars and very detailed maps. Until something like that is happening and in use it is impossible I think to predict full autonomy for the consumer cars.
 
I'm new to how shorts work so these may be stupid questions...

When a short has to be covered, that means a share has to be purchased, correct? So, in theory, if all shareholders set a sell price of $900, all shorts would be required to pay $900 per share to cover? Am I understanding the basics correctly? I think it would be impossible to get everyone to hold to a high sell price, but the cascade could lead to some very lucrative sells.

I believe you are suggesting a stock market manipulation, which is a crime. IANAL.
 
I believe you are suggesting a stock market manipulation, which is a crime. IANAL.

How on earth can it be criminal to decide not to sell your stock below a certain price? It is our stock, and a lot of us can agree on a minimum price we are willing to sell at.

What is criminal is a lot of the baseless fud (lies) being published to stop the SP surges.
 
How on earth can it be criminal to decide not to sell your stock below a certain price? It is our stock, and a lot of us can agree on a minimum price we are willing to sell at.

What is criminal is a lot of the baseless fud (lies) being published to stop the SP surges.

Well, my post was a bit tongue in cheek. I don't expect that a post in discussion board is criminal per se. But the basic idea to try to manipulate stock price artificially is forbidden. IANAL.
 
Well, my post was a bit tongue in cheek. I don't expect that a post in discussion board is criminal per se. But the basic idea to try to manipulate stock price artificially is forbidden. IANAL.

Obviously YANAL. It's not illegal to conspire when it comes to setting sell limit orders. But what does occur is a variety on the prisoner's dilemma: how to make sure that one of the conspiring parties doesn't cheat and change the limit to $850 as the price surges? And as soon as someone realizes this maybe they'll set their limit to $820, and so on.
 
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What is the chance that Tesla Motors will announce together with MPII that they will change their name to just 'Tesla' or 'Tesla something', but drop the 'Motors' part of the name. Just like Apple did from 'Apple Computers' to 'Apple Inc.' It would be great timing, because this announcement will be the first major shift from a car company that also produces some battery packs to a company that wants to decentralize the global energy production.
 
What is the chance that Tesla Motors will announce together with MPII that they will change their name to just 'Tesla' or 'Tesla something', but drop the 'Motors' part of the name. Just like Apple did from 'Apple Computers' to 'Apple Inc.' It would be great timing, because this announcement will be the first major shift from a car company that also produces some battery packs to a company that wants to decentralize the global energy production.

I noticed last week that ir.teslamotors.com redirects to ir.tesla.com. For the main website, tesla.com still redirects to teslamotors.com, though. Make of that what you will.
 
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