Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[tander]

We are far away from it. Consider the improvement the last year and how far we still are from being able to not pay attention and just sleep in the backseat or watch a movie.

I very much doubt that the HW sensors in the current cars are enough to reach that goal, too. My guess is atleast 10 years before we have fully autonomous driving that is also approved with regulations. Elon's across the country claim in was it two years seems to me unrealistic and I wonder why he made it.

I'm not an expert but considering that other car companies that are presumably behind Tesla have talked about self-driving in less than ten years, it seems like it's coming sooner than that. But yeah I agree that almost for sure that the regulations will lag the actual technology. I think Musk made that claim because that is what their genuine aim is for, or maybe that was not for full autonomy, we'll see how close they come I guess.

One thing that's playing out it the news right now, is the potential to increase safety. My hunch is that as it becomes more apparent that autonomous is both possible and a huge safety increase, the effort to get there will keep increasing too, so the pace is just going to get faster and faster with safety as a driver, no pun intended.

 

[Drumheller]

I am going to put in a GTC order to sell at $899 to under cut you though. And someone else will be happy to undercut me at $898 and so on.

There seems to be 2 "squeezy" scenarios.

1) A technical sqeeze, aka shares are "sold out". That is what the VW thing was. There were literally not enough longs selling to bail out the shorts which caused a high, brief, artificial spike. That is unlikely here in the absence of some Stockholder shenanigans. You don't really want this one. Since the reason for the spike is transient longs, even "strong" longs would be scrambling to sell at the top, which means that the top would never really come and you might miss the whole thing if you are on vacation. It's a bonanza for day traders who are lucky but really just a distraction for the company.

2) A "great lurch up" where pent up shorts intersect with facts that show a whole new valuation is probably in order. in 2013 we had a great lurch up where the company showed good reviews, good deliveries and actual financial profit. The shorts who were banking on abject failure had to step out and the valuation moved up to a whole new bracket never to return. The move up was fueled by shorts covering as well as new excited longs willing to pay the premium of the ATH prices. We might be looking at the next "great lurch" in the next 24 months when shorts (again banking on abject failure) meet real model 3 reality. (or TE massive growth/profits or Model S/X net profit or Great GF production results). In 2013 there was a lot of enthusiasm and forward pricing (3 years later still at similar valuations) so the next great lurch would feel the same. Some whole new band of pricing that may not overlap the 180-260 we have been in for 3 years.

The question is when...

I'm ok with you undercutting me. I set mine to sell for a price that I would be happy with. If it happens in a month or in 5 years, I'm happy with it. Of course, a month would be better, but both scenarios are good.

 

[tander]

Tesla appears far behind google in developing software to understand the intent of humans not in motor vehicles. Even if Tesla can show that their vehicles are statistically as safe a human drivers, the type of serious accidents may still make Tesla's approach unacceptable.

I think 2030 is optimistic for level 4 being available for purchase. Although specialized autonomous vehicles are already in service (very low speed buses). The path is likely the slow addition of capability from this beginning. I do think that Tesla is probably shooting for on-interstate level 3 by the end of the decade. That would be a very nice feature.

2030, is it really that far off? Wonder why Musk would say in about 2 years, maybe he was talking about a lower level.

 

[CHGolferJim]

So oil is up over 4% while Tesla struggles to close in the green. I have not calculated it yet, but it does appear that the correlation of oil and Tesla may have weakened over the last few months. I wonder if bullishness on oil is held more firmly while Tesla is under attack. Oil investors do seem to be much more aware of the threat of EVs to oil demand than they were last year. So if Tesla must be beaten down for investors to feel good about oil, then we could see a negative correlation emerge.

I get a daily email newsletter called The Daily Shot which is published by somebody called Iron Crest Partners. It's hardcore macroeconomic data. I recall a recent chart showing a decoupling of oil and US share indices, but only VERY recently during the latest market upswing. Meanwhile, EV/PHEV/hybrid combined market share is ~3%?

 

[jhm]

Where my haters,
Where my hater?
I ain't got em,
I'm not famous, no

 

[schonelucht]

The letter is here. (Follow yellow highlights on the page to display the link to the letter)

Very helpful, thanks for digging that up! That's a mountain of data to provide in quite a short time frame...

EDIT: BTW all of the media that is using word "investigation" are flipping CLUELESS. As clearly seen from the NHTSA page it is "preliminary evaluation" "to examine the design and performance of any automated driving systems in use at the time of the crash."

Given how you highlighted the word investigations as the title under which to find this document, it seems the NHTSA itself has no issue qualifying preliminary evaluations as investigations too, so I feel we can forgive the media on this point.

 

[dc_h]

Ma

2030, is it really that far off? Wonder why Musk would say in about 2 years, maybe he was talking about a lower level.

maybe 3020?

 

[Curt Renz]

I am going to put in a GTC order to sell at $899 to under cut you though. And someone else will be happy to undercut me at $898 and so on.

As you wisely demonstrate, that strategy ultimately defeats the setup for a true short squeeze. The solution is to set no sell limit at all. If no one sells, the shorts are squeezed, squashed and slain. The shorts would have to bid astronomical prices to buy back and return the shares that they have borrowed. All the while their brokers would be hollering at them with margin calls.

The lurking question would be: at what level would otherwise strong longs be enticed to sell? Once they start weakening and sell, the price would start to come down, but likely remain at a rather high level if a significant number of shareholders choose to sit out the process. If Tesla shareholders do remain steadfast during the coming days, things could get quite interesting.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Given how you highlighted the word investigations as the title under which to find this document, it seems the NHTSA itself has no issue qualifying preliminary evaluations as investigations too, so I feel we can forgive the media on this point.

I would not. The title of the tab I highlighted merely means any and all information pertaining to the NHTSA Investigative Process.

Apparently NHTSA does have an issue with misinterpreting their process, enough so that it addressed details of it here. Note that currently NHTSA is in screening mode, which includes preliminary investigation based on which the decision is made whether to open investigation or not. So when clueless in the media say that NHTSA opened investigation of Tesla they, in fact, are factually wrong.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Rising oil, rising market, negative ammunition spent........we have them surrounded.

You know Elon is going to give them plenty of ammunition with his part 2 of the Tesla Master Plan. It will be just like part 1: broad strokes and obviously impossible goals, with no reason to believe anything except that Elon says so. The true believers here will believe him (that includes me), but Wall Street will laugh its head off and the stock will tank.

 

[tander]

As you wisely demonstrate, that strategy ultimately defeats the setup for a true short squeeze. The solution is to set no sell limit at all. If no one sells, the shorts are squeezed, squashed and slain. The shorts would have to bid astronomical prices to buy back and return the shares that they have borrowed. All the while their brokers would be hollering at them with margin calls.

The lurking question would be: at what level would otherwise strong longs be enticed to sell? Once they start weakening and sell, the price would start to come down, but likely remain at a rather high level if a significant number of shareholders choose to sit out the process. If Tesla shareholders do remain steadfast during the coming days, things could get quite interesting.

So Musk recently said Tesla could be a trillion dollar company. If my math is right that implies a stock price of about 6,500. Even if Tesla only gets halfway there and shares are diluted 3x by then that's still over 1,000. So I guess that's my number if I'm a strong long.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

2030, is it really that far off? Wonder why Musk would say in about 2 years, maybe he was talking about a lower level.

No, it's not. Elon will have colonized Mars by 2030.

 

[Jayjs20]

Did we really close AH on yesterday's close? What are the odds of that.

 

[racer26]

Did we really close AH on yesterday's close? What are the odds of that.

It appears we did.

So far no sign of that X60D rumored earlier. That reddit thread seems to have a second person corroborating that there is X news afoot, though.

 

[jhm]

I think we should be watching the SolarCity share price a little more closely here. It closed up about 0.5% at $24.65. At the low exchange rate for the acquisition this is like buying Tesla at $202 per share. So longer-term investors who are optimistic about the acquisition may prefer buying SolarCity at these prices.

Moreover, shorts will be threatened by gains in SolarCity because it suggests longer-term buying pressure.

 

[bulbasaur]

i'm sure this has been mentioned before but if you haven't seen hillary clinton's solar plans, highly recommend it. from a pdf on her website:

"Hillary Clinton’s Vision for Renewable Power – Briefing Fact Sheet Hillary Clinton announced two bold national goals that she will set as president to combat climate change, create jobs, protect the health of American families and communities, and make the United States the world’s clean energy superpower:

1) The United States will have more than half a billion solar panels installed across the country by the end of Hillary Clinton’s first term.

2) The United States will generate enough clean renewable energy to power every home in America within ten years of Hillary Clinton taking office.

The next decade will be decisive for our transition to a clean energy economy and our ability to meet the global climate crisis. The two goals Clinton announced are part of a comprehensive energy and climate agenda that she will lay out over the coming months.

By achieving these goals we will: • Expand the amount of installed solar capacity to 140 gigawatts by the end of 2020, a 700% increase from current levels. That is the equivalent of having rooftop solar systems on over 25 million homes. • Add more power generation capacity to the grid than during any decade in American history, from a combination of wind, solar, hydro, geothermal, and other forms of renewable electricity. • Prevent thousands of premature deaths and tens of thousands of asthma attacks each year, meet our national and international climate targets, and move our economy along a path towards deep decarbonization by 2050. "

knowing this, i don't know why anyone wouldn't want to own a fair share of tsla, scty, and other clean energy stocks unless trump gains a sizable lead.

 

[AlMc]

Just picked this up on another thread: The Montana accident driver says he would buy another Tesla: Driver in Tesla Autopilot accident would buy another Tesla

 

[madodel]

Just picked this up on another thread: The Montana accident driver says he would buy another Tesla: Driver in Tesla Autopilot accident would buy another Tesla

So how is the WSJ going to spin that. Probably best to ignore it.

 

[Yonki]

Don't know if this has been posted here yet, but wow, totally spot on. This piece needs to be shared far and wide: Leave Tesla Alone

Awesome article - but it only has 28 likes on Twitter! We can do better than that!

 

[NOLA_Mike]

So how is the WSJ going to spin that. Probably best to ignore it.

"Tesla Autopilot causes driver to lose mind - says he would buy another one!"