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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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This appeared 22 minutes ago in the Tesla news section of my brokerage account:

Today's News, February 25, 2016
10:16 am ET*Indiana Legislators Remove Amendment to Bill Which would have Ended TSLA's Indiana Dealership Licenses at End of 2017 -Wall Street Journal
Benzinga
Here's a link to a related article in the IndyStar: Bill banning Tesla direct sales in Indiana won't go forward

From what I can see this isn't true. And I have to say I am furious to see Chen lose a legal argument he should have won easily and convincingly and in fact he got murdered. Dealers have invested NOTHING to justify a legal right to take a slice of Tesla's business.
 
From my observations above. I think the model 3 impact will be discounted if TM CAN NOT show they can sort out X issues 6 months after formal reveal. Would it be possible for TM to delay model 3 reveal until X production rate stablized above 500/week rate?

It would be insane if they did that. One should not affect the other. Everyone knows that Tesla can produce the Model S at volume, everyone knows that Elon has clearly said the X is a very complicated vehicle to build, unlike the S, and everyone knows the Model 3 will be a less complicated vehicle than the X and likely the S as well. The Model 3 is key to the company's future, the X is not.
 
From what I can see this isn't true. And I have to say I am furious to see Chen lose a legal argument he should have won easily and convincingly and in fact he got murdered. Dealers have invested NOTHING to justify a legal right to take a slice of Tesla's business.

Wait a minute. I thought the headline was GOOD news (i.e. Tesla Allowed to continue selling forever).
 
Nope. If you closely watch cadence, this is normal. This is due to intra-quarter regional allocations. At some point soon, the lower spec models will push to next quarter and the wait will jump a month or two. The P90D's might hold this until even the 2nd week of March, then jump. European delivery is June already.

Those that don't watch Tesla deliveries and wait times closely are often fooled by this. Each and every single quarter. It never fails, some TSLA neophyte will run screaming to the 'net that Tesla deliveries crater the first month of a quarter, and go screaming that wait times are really short in the U.S. at the end of a quarter so there's no backlog at all. Every single quarter.

any estimate for 1Q deliveries for X? for S?
TIA
 
From what I can see this isn't true. And I have to say I am furious to see Chen lose a legal argument he should have won easily and convincingly and in fact he got murdered. Dealers have invested NOTHING to justify a legal right to take a slice of Tesla's business.

It is worth reading the entire article. Bill banning Tesla direct sales in Indiana won't go forward
The bill has been tabled for this year and it will be subject to a study group this summer. It is good news for now. I got the impression that Tesla supporters could have done a better job of getting the basic message across. Some of the message may have been lost in the noise.
 
Wait a minute. I thought the headline was GOOD news (i.e. Tesla Allowed to continue selling forever).

The "good news" title of the article linked by Curt Renz is misleading. I just went through the video of the actual session and all that has actually happened is that the meeting is adjourned for continuation next Thursday.

Here is the end of that session with the Chairman saying exactly this: Indiana General Assembly HB1254 Feb 18 CTC (Anti-Tesla bill) - YouTube

The anti-Tesla bill in Indiana has NOT been voted down and there is no extra period of safety agreed. The Senate Charman's opening remarks were misdirection (talking about the generic need to ensure aftercare service as a reason to consider this injustice - and then when all the witnesses from the Indiana Service Manager to a slew of customers testified that the service was the best in the auto industry with facts to back it up they were shut down for addressing a matter irrelevant to the passage of the bill.) This Senate was absolutely predisposed to be hostile to the point of argumentative with the witnesses in favor of Tesla's position and Tesla's Deputy Counsel Chen did such a poor job of arguing the case that I am not happy about it, to put it mildly - and this is the second one of these I have seen him lose for Tesla, the first being in New Jersey - that was thankfully overturned in the end.

For anyone that cares about this staggering violation of both the right to operate a business vs corrupt protectionism and the protection of consumer choice and freedoms this fight is NOT over. It's just starting.
 
No. Main street would think S/X/3 are equal important. Investors need to see the beef from X before trust the sizzling from 3.

It would be insane if they did that. One should not affect the other. Everyone knows that Tesla can produce the Model S at volume, everyone knows that Elon has clearly said the X is a very complicated vehicle to build, unlike the S, and everyone knows the Model 3 will be a less complicated vehicle than the X and likely the S as well. The Model 3 is key to the company's future, the X is not.
 
This Senate was absolutely predisposed to be hostile to the point of argumentative with the witnesses in favor of Tesla's position and Tesla's Deputy Counsel Chen did such a poor job of arguing the case that I am not happy about it, to put it mildly - and this is the second one of these I have seen him lose for Tesla, the first being in New Jersey - that was thankfully overturned in the end.

For anyone that cares about this staggering violation of both the right to operate a business vs corrupt protectionism and the protection of consumer choice and freedoms this fight is NOT over. It's just starting.

Yes, the legislators seem hell-bent to shoehorn Tesla into the same business model practiced by existing manufacturers, all in the name of "fairness". Tesla should should send somebody with real political acumen to these meetings. Senators are not judges.
 
Reallistically, about 50 gigafactory scale factories need to be on line at some stage of ramp up by the critical year for oil impact. From this battery supply perspective, 2023 seems unrealistic. Since development time is about 5 years for such a plant, 8 years to launch 47 additional gigafactories is an extremely tight timeframe. Attraction to the stationary battery market is helpful, but I don't see the whole industry lining up to commit $250B to this.

Loved your analysis (and rest of the comments I removed, as I want to comment specifically on the bolder portion).

I don't think it will happen any time soon, but here is how that problem could be solved. it would be almost a certain path to creating massive legacy, if any youngish oil executive (XOM, BP) decide to engineer turn-around to battery producing (GF producing) company. After all, they're in energy business, and more importantly, oil industry has massive investments funds. Diverting chunk of it will start moving the needle.

Obstacles to this happening are sky high, so it would have to be someone who has long time-horizon, at least 15 years. And, he's charismatic personality a la Jammie Dimon, if not EM type (there is only one EM) to get board/shareholders/C-suite to follow him (grudgingly I guess).

But creating legacy is more and more important for new breed of executives, that have all the money in the world they need. Not sure this breed has caught on in oil industry yet.

Thinking more about it, perhaps this is a real possibility once oil companies get more distressed. Boards and shareholders will develop more appetite for risk, once writing on the wall is easier to read. And they may bring outsider to engineer this turn-around, once they're in real trouble. Which takes care of my comment on the type of executives that are currently part of oil industry.
 
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Senator: "Your cars are already expensive. Why can't you mark them up some more, and create that extra layer of profit to motivate a dealer to go into business with you?"

Sickening. Anyway, TSLA re-ran the day-traders' dream pattern and sits nicely in the green again. Recovered $38 since the day before ER - the inflection makes nice picture on the three month chart view and heading in the right direction. Under budget but right on schedule.

Edit - this actually looks like TSL has broken through some resistance at $180 and is heading north now for real. That would conform well in terms of timing with the price movement thesis I have been championing here throughout the nasty volatility piece and for quite a while now. Shorts that got giddy and piled in at $150ish can't be best pleased. TSLA also completely ignored China stock drop this morning too. Could be getting out of the macro narrative and back in business re-focusing on the company.

Oh and a guy named Hibben on SA managed to get an eltrek piece republished that just trashes the GF subsidy and staff-count FUD that SA's Montana Skeptic has been spewing both before and after being soundly debunked on that exact FUD by Musk on the recent Earnings Call.
 
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Elon, hire some of those damn Uber lawyers! They have beaten back Taxicab medallion owners world wide. How the heck they did that without getting shot or finding a horses head in their bed is beyond amazing.

Lawyer up and double down on the Interstate Commerce Clause. The idea that "Commerce among the states cannot stop at the external boundary-line of each state" is a critical function of our Union of states, versus a confederation. Indiana doesn't get to stop a California company from selling products in it's state and it doesn't get to dictate on the model used to sell it's products, other than to protect the safety of it's citizens. The burden of proof is on Indiana that they are protecting their citizens.

Yes, the legislators seem hell-bent to shoehorn Tesla into the same business model practiced by existing manufacturers, all in the name of "fairness". Tesla should should send somebody with real political acumen to these meetings. Senators are not judges.
 
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