Reallistically, about 50 gigafactory scale factories need to be on line at some stage of ramp up by the critical year for oil impact. From this battery supply perspective, 2023 seems unrealistic. Since development time is about 5 years for such a plant, 8 years to launch 47 additional gigafactories is an extremely tight timeframe. Attraction to the stationary battery market is helpful, but I don't see the whole industry lining up to commit $250B to this.
Loved your analysis (and rest of the comments I removed, as I want to comment specifically on the bolder portion).
I don't think it will happen any time soon, but here is how that problem could be solved. it would be almost a certain path to creating massive legacy, if any youngish oil executive (XOM, BP) decide to engineer turn-around to battery producing (GF producing) company. After all, they're in energy business, and more importantly, oil industry has massive investments funds. Diverting chunk of it will start moving the needle.
Obstacles to this happening are sky high, so it would have to be someone who has long time-horizon, at least 15 years. And, he's charismatic personality a la Jammie Dimon, if not EM type (there is only one EM) to get board/shareholders/C-suite to follow him (grudgingly I guess).
But creating legacy is more and more important for new breed of executives, that have all the money in the world they need. Not sure this breed has caught on in oil industry yet.
Thinking more about it, perhaps this is a real possibility once oil companies get more distressed. Boards and shareholders will develop more appetite for risk, once writing on the wall is easier to read. And they may bring outsider to engineer this turn-around, once they're in real trouble. Which takes care of my comment on the type of executives that are currently part of oil industry.