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When this rally starts for real - bit soon to tell but I think perhaps it has already (as it should0, then it will go on practically uninterrupted with a possible if not probable April fools sale on the news following the Model 3 unveil retracing some percentage of the gains before heading on up again. This is a very big year for the TSLA SP imho. All predictions from sock eating avoidance to Q3 looking fine in my view. Enjoy.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
I appreciate your depth of analysis on this.
My question though is the impact to the supply side of electric power generation. If oil continues to be at the low price, and with this displacement of oil further pressuring the price to go even lower and the real possibility of an increase in the per kwh price of electricity due to a spike in demand, might there be a feasible business case to now profitably operate an oil-fueled power plant (ironic and honestly abhorrent, I know.)?
My understanding right now is that about 30% of our electricity is comes from coal-fired generators and oil at less than 1%. What are your thoughts on future sources of electric power? Not sure if current renewables like solar+battery, wind and hydro could ever fully meet the demand side?
The oil industry has a record of defending itself when threatened. In the 70s with pressure from consumers to switch to alternative energy, Exon bought Reliance (t?) Electric ostensibly to apply energy saving technology toward very large industrial electric motors. (I once worked in a hot strip steel mill. Each stand of several in a line was powered by a 10,000 horsepower motor the size of a house.) Later, no such technology was employed. Also, some correspondent in the Bay Area reported solar energy specialists were routinely denied awards by the Carter administration. Carter was a creature of the Trilateral Commission created by David Rockefeller. A conspiracy theory, or just recognition of the power of big money?
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Well, only covering less than 10% of my roof powers my house, 2,000 miles a month of car charging, and some left over watts for my neighbors.
After a tour of the Tesla Factory, Malaysian PM says he will import 100 Model S’s
Might have been posted before, might not... But always a good sign when people are blown away by a Tesla, especially helpful when they are influential.
After a tour of the Tesla Factory, Malaysian PM says he will import 100 Model Ss duty-free | Electrek
Might have been posted before, might not... But always a good sign when people are blown away by a Tesla, especially helpful when they are influential.
After a tour of the Tesla Factory, Malaysian PM says he will import 100 Model Ss duty-free | Electrek
dc_h
Active Member
I'm of the opinion after hours trading is "amateur hour" and somebody is being taken advantage of with those trades. The big boys close up shop and head home at the closing bell.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
We've discussed it before in the TSLA investment thread. The general conclusion is that it's a so called "late print". The trade probably happened during the day while the stock was at or just around that market price, but for some reason got registered in the after hours.
jhm
Well-Known Member
If they understood themselves to be in the energy business, not the oil business, this would make sense. But I think the stationary battery market will heat up and attract capital. This will also drive down battery costs. So eventually the supply will emerge for incumbent automakers. But batteries are the engine of future autos. The incumbents risk ceding their role as engine makers to the likes of LG Chem.
So the capital will flow into these plants, but it will easily bypass both automakers and oil companies.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Well, it's tricky. Density gains mean that for a certain physical capacity, so many MT/year, the energy capacity output of the plant goes up each year. Thus once the the Gigafactory 1 capacity keeps growing about 6% each year. I do expect this, but point is that 1500 GWh/year is still needed. Perhaps Gigafactory 1 will reach 70 to 90 GWh/yr by that time so it counts as 1.4 to 1.8 gigafactory units. This also depends a lot on how quickly we reach the critical level. To get there by 2023 instead of by 2028 we need about a 30% bigger investment in plants.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Clearly today's TSLA price leap is tied to the SpacEx launch due in less than 4 hours from now. Soon will reach same altitude as Geo Transfer Orbit!
I'll be watching the launch. Fingers crossed it goes great (landing attempt too).
Honestly, price action today is more strongly correlated to Oil rebound
Yeah, almost all ICE manufacturers are making their own drive-trains. Very few exceptions. They happily outsource a lot of other things, sometimes even design.
So what is it they can't/shouldn't outsource when it comes the EV? Probably the battery pack, electronics and electronics software and the electric motors. Maybe the battery cells themselves but for now I think there is a high chance of that being a commodity they can outsource/purchase, just as Tesla is doing currently with Panasonic. Electric motors they maybe can outsource as the design of them as far as I know is not that complex.
I expect to see many ICE manufacturers starting to outsource the EV drive-train to various extent when the transition to EV is about to happen in a few years, just as GM did with Bolt. Those manufacturers will fall behind eventually assuming the EV drive-train is as important as the ICE one is.
Julian, today was the "next Thursday" alluded to in that February 18 video. The proposed amendment has been removed from the bill which has been tabled for further discussion during the summer.
February 18 Committee Meeting
February 25 Committee Meeting
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