Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[FredTMC]

The stock will get destroyed if they don't show a physical car. If your entire future is based on a car and you can't show it look out.

Tesla will show the physical car. I'm very certain about that. I agree anything less that that is just stupid. Elon clearly wants 100s of thousands of reservations. Only way is to show the car. Interior may not be final version. Just like MX and MS early reveals. That's okay. Elon will hold off on some features That's OK

 

[WarpedOne]

They are freaking 3D printing working rocket motors.

And I am to believe they are not capable of building a concept car?
Even one made out of clay?

I refuse to respect any such 'opinions'. They are disgrace of a human intellect.

 

[cziegler]

Yet....I wouldn't be surprised to one day hear Tesla Motors offer a version of the X with a folding second row seating option.

I get complaining about a lack of folding seats (If that is what you really wanted, shame on them for not providing it, as they just lost some business which is generally not a good thing), but that is one small thing in the grand scheme of the prototype that overall panned out exactly as it was shown if not better than it was shown (auto-presenting doors / new front end / air filter / faster times / better performance / bigger battery / etc). If they hold off showing the M3 because they may end up being forced to pull one feature in order to make others happen then I don't think they should be hit on that. Seriously, that was like, the only thing promised and not delivered on.

 

[everman]

We will absolutely see a car drive out on stage. The thing he needs to reveal is the shape/styling. What he won't reveal is any performance specs or pack sizes, and will only talk about range as > 200 miles. He's not worried about the shape, it's the features that will trickle out over time. He will talk about auto-pilot and supercharging capable, and perhaps storage space, but those are add-on options and body/frame design stuff. The performance and luxury amenities will be unannounced.

 

[AlMc]

They are freaking 3D printing working rocket motors.

And I am to believe they are not capable of building a concept car?
Even one made out of clay?

I refuse to respect any such 'opinions'. They are disgrace of a human intellect.

The reason this is even a slight (infintesimal, if you like) possibility is that in an interview/talk EM gave not so long ago he mentioned 'renderings'.

I do believe we will see an actual physical model 3 but it is a valid to discuss it since the TM CEO brought it up.


http://insideevs.com/elon-musk-march-model-3-unveiling-wont-reveal-all/

 

[lango]

The reason this is even a slight (infintesimal, if you like) possibility is that in an interview/talk EM gave not so long ago he mentioned 'renderings'.

I do believe we will see an actual physical model 3 but it is a valid to discuss it since the TM CEO brought it up.


http://insideevs.com/elon-musk-march-model-3-unveiling-wont-reveal-all/

It was also brought up in the CC call:

Tyler Charles Frank - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Private Wealth Management)
Okay. Then, a quick follow-up. There's been some rumors and commentary that the Model 3 launch may not be an actual full vehicle. Can you just talk about what we should expect at the launch event and at the end of March?
Elon Reeve Musk - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, we're trying to decide whether we should show all the cards or keep a few cards close to the vest, I haven't made decision yet.

 

[eloder]

1. The 7 series is considerably more luxurious and tech filled than the 3 series. The model 3 will need to have similar level of luxury and tech (as while as some improvements) to compete with the compact luxury class.

I consider an electric drivetrain to be by far the most luxurious automotive feature ever to exist, and I'm willing to bet many other consumers will agree on that point.

Model S doesn't come close to the "luxury" of any similar high-end sedan out there, but it's still the #1 luxury sedan in the US. Why do you think it won't face similar successes in the $35k market? Keep in mind people will spend near that much on Priuses, pickup trucks, and a number of other non-luxury cars in that price range after tax credits.

 

[everman]

The reason this is even a slight (infintesimal, if you like) possibility is that in an interview/talk EM gave not so long ago he mentioned 'renderings'.

I do believe we will see an actual physical model 3 but it is a valid to discuss it since the TM CEO brought it up.


http://insideevs.com/elon-musk-march-model-3-unveiling-wont-reveal-all/

Technically he was answering a question that was poorly phrased. The questioner asked, "when can we see pictures of the Model 3?". The answer was "the first pictures of Model 3 will be end of March". And he's right. There will be a million pictures of Model 3 at the end of March. Probably assuming the folks in France aren't flying to California for the unveiling.

 

[JRP3]

The reason this is even a slight (infintesimal, if you like) possibility is that in an interview/talk EM gave not so long ago he mentioned 'renderings'.

I do believe we will see an actual physical model 3 but it is a valid to discuss it since the TM CEO brought it up.

The first pictures of Model 3 will be end of March

He did use the word pictures, not renderings. Link to the statement:

https://youtu.be/Off7830aMp0?t=12m28s

 

[MitchJi]

It was also brought up in the CC call:

Tyler Charles Frank - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Private Wealth Management)
Okay. Then, a quick follow-up. There's been some rumors and commentary that the Model 3 launch may not be an actual full vehicle. Can you just talk about what we should expect at the launch event and at the end of March?
Elon Reeve Musk - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, we're trying to decide whether we should show all the cards or keep a few cards close to the vest, I haven't made decision yet.

Yes but earlier in the same call he said:

We're really looking forward to the unveiling of the Model 3 at the end of next month. I think this is going to be really well received, and then getting into production and delivery at the end of next year.

 

[electracity]

Concrete evidence of model X ramp, car magazine reviews, crash test results, and a model 3 vehicle shown. These real events are what will really move the stock on the merits of the company.
......

The Model S is still showing late March delivery. This doesn't indicate a particularly full production queue.

 

[dc_h]

I think it is likely the M3 will be like the S, with a base and performance version. I think the base will be a 50KwH model, supporting over 200 miles range and the performance will be a 75KwH model, supporting about 300 miles range. The elimination of the 85KwH model S, opens the door for a new P100D for the S & X, and eventual update of the 70 to a 75 and elimination of the P90. This will provide a ladder from 50KwH to 75KwH to 100KwH, with performance matching attributes for the S & X and the Model 3 in different size packages to meet different consumer needs and markets.

60 & 85 have been obsoleted. The 60 was obsoleted after about 18 months and the 85 at about 30 months. The 70 & 90 should be due for an update in late 2016 or 2017 as the new GF cells are available, but before the Model 3 goes on sale. The 100 would give the S about 320 miles of range and the X about 285 miles. Keeping a range edge on future competitors\compliance\pilot cars from Audi & BMW will be one way for Tesla to maintain their value edge.

And why do you think Tesla will want to cannibalize Model S sales. If the Model 3 is presented as an appealing car, of a decent size, with 300 miles range for $35,000, I can't see Tesla selling a ton of Model S next year. That would ruin the company.

- - - Updated - - -

Six weeks? Seems by historical standards for Tesla. Lead times in USA usually compress as the quarter moves on, and expand for the rest of the world to maximize quarterly deliveries. As the quarter ends, international delivery times will compress and US lead time will expand. This will likely continue until Tesla builds regional production, or lead time in US is below 1 or 2 weeks.

The Model S is still showing late March delivery. This doesn't indicate a particularly full production queue.

 

[postpast]

I think it is likely the M3 will be like the S, with a base and performance version. I think the base will be a 50KwH model, supporting over 200 miles range and the performance will be a 75KwH model, supporting about 300 miles range. The elimination of the 85KwH model S, opens the door for a new P100D for the S & X, and eventual update of the 70 to a 75 and elimination of the P90. This will provide a ladder from 50KwH to 75KwH to 100KwH, with performance matching attributes for the S & X and the Model 3 in different size packages to meet different consumer needs and markets.

I agree that is likely packaging. In that quote I was replying to eloder who was predicting the Model 3 to come with 300 miles of range in base form and saying that Tesla doesn't need to worry about cannibalizing Model S sales.

 

[MitchJi]

No idea why anyone is so sure that 70kwh is impossible.

I doubt they can get above 10% of gross margin, if any at all, on a $35k model s with 70kWh battery before 2020.

Pretty sure it is at the $35K price point of the base model.

What pack cost do you think is required to do that?

If you want me to do it I can easily show (I believe to everyone's satisfaction) that at the end of 2017, when the M3 is scheduled to launch, that Tesla's pack cost will be under $125 per kWh. I could show that it's actually closer to $100-$110 per kWh, but that's more time consuming and I am not up for doing that right now.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Panasonic announced today that it is upping its acquisitions to prepare to increase production for Tesla, and by definition strengthen its partnership with Tesla. Why wasn't this reported by anyone?

Panasonic to Speed Up Pace of Acquisitions to Meet Sales Target - Bloomberg Business

 

[Zaxxon]

Didn't fit the narrative.

 

[Causalien]

Let's see

Pros and cons of revealing everything

Pros: drives up demand

Cons:
-competitors copying
-production has to be able to make everything right off the bat, so potential deoays
-

Anyone else can chime in? I am too jetlagged

 

[AlMc]

Let's see

Pros and cons of revealing everything

Pros: drives up demand
:drives up stock price
: makes it easier to raise cash (if needed)

Cons:
-competitors copying
-production has to be able to make everything right off the bat, so potential deoays
-possible change in design leading to cancellations/blow back over certain features that were displayed with prototype that are not in production model(s)
-

Anyone else can chime in? I am too jetlagged

My additional suggestions in blue.

 

[colettimj]

Let's see
Pros and cons of revealing everything

Pros: drives up demand

Cons:
-competitors copying
-production has to be able to make everything right off the bat, so potential deoays
-

Anyone else can chime in? I am too jetlagged

As I am planning on putting down a deposit on the 3, these are the things I really want to know:

1. Supercharger hardware included or optional cost?
2. Supercharging free or...?
3. AP hardware included for all w/optional software purchase to enable?
4. Battery option(s) and estimated range

I'd hope to get answers to the first 3. If they show everything (exterior/interior) but don't answer any of those questions, I'll be very disappointed.

 

[larmor]

I would want to know what their plans for service and servicing are? This will be the key point for a mass market car.

My additional suggestions in blue.