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At least we didn't get the sell off at market open like we have for who knows how long, I'll take that as a positive sign (I'm reaching here).
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
My mistake, I correlated your stock price discussion with your call for Julian's return.
dreamingof3
Member
No I don't like violence but the post has since been deleted. In fairness, he was provoked although it's no excuse.
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5 off the high still not great price action. I'm hoping for a break through to 165 today.
Being in the software business for a very large global software provider I can tell you that software has VERY high margins.
dc_h
Active Member
I wish this meme in the short term thread would go away. He writes about long term strategies that may or may not exist within Tesla. Themes that deserve a blog or a dedicated thread. Argumentative bullying is no way to win an argument, gain or retain existing Tesla fans. We lost 3 long term contributors in one week, due to their stating concerns about short term issues. None of them were anti-Tesla, but all of them expressed short term reservations about the stock. Open forums require some degree of respect, or different opinions will not be shared and the site will just become a fanboy site. At that point, we are just open source marketing, rather than a venue to discuss current issues affecting the stock.
Glad to see us in the green. Think perception of Model X production is improving. A big turnout for M3 reservations should push us back over 200 and perhaps more.
* I am self editing to avoid creating new controversy. I'm glad to see the stock doing well and hearing about upbeat plant tours.
Glad to see us in the green. Think perception of Model X production is improving. A big turnout for M3 reservations should push us back over 200 and perhaps more.
* I am self editing to avoid creating new controversy. I'm glad to see the stock doing well and hearing about upbeat plant tours.
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dreamingof3
Member
If you want an objective opinion of what I feel if going on with the stock I can offer mine. Growth stocks are being hit with the fear of a slowdown in spending. Multiples have been clobbered all of January including a huge hit to Tesla. Tesla gets hit hard by the following risks 1. Oil Price Risk 2. Slowdown in luxury goods sales risk. 3. Execution risk 4. Cancellation Risk. 5. Build quality risk. 6. Capital raise risk 7. Other Macro risks.
Do I feel these risks warrant a 90 dollar drop in stock price? Absolutely not.
The fact that Tesla stock cannot ever hold it's daily gains is troubling to me.
perhaps the biggest risk is the market perception of the Model 3 and if it is or isn't a consumer hit right away.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Seems like the free marketing machine is starting up again. Tweets from Elon along with factory images of only the Model X. Tests drives happening in Chicago today for X reservation holders. Hopefully, we seen the low for the year as Model S and Model X deliveries move forward and preview of the Model 3.
dreamingof3
Member
Concrete evidence of model X ramp, car magazine reviews, crash test results, and a model 3 vehicle shown. These real events are what will really move the stock on the merits of the company.
We will get days where the macro winds blow us up or down but to get gains over market gains we need the company to show signs of progress/meeting deadlines and positive information from outside sources about how good the X really is...
There has been done debate about whether EM will reveal a physical model3 or renderings. There was considerable 'blow back' by some, including me, when some features/claims of the prototype did not make it into the actual X. Wonder if this may cause EM to show renderings vs actual vehicle?? Just a thought....
We will get days where the macro winds blow us up or down but to get gains over market gains we need the company to show signs of progress/meeting deadlines and positive information from outside sources about how good the X really is...
There has been done debate about whether EM will reveal a physical model3 or renderings. There was considerable 'blow back' by some, including me, when some features/claims of the prototype did not make it into the actual X. Wonder if this may cause EM to show renderings vs actual vehicle?? Just a thought....
dreamingof3
Member
The stock will get destroyed if they don't show a physical car. If your entire future is based on a car and you can't show it look out.
Not having the car at the reveal allows Musk to have reveal II. He has a lot on entertaining he needs to do between now and the release of the M3. He has Powerwall 2.0 late summer, and maybe at some point a new LED front end on the model S.
I think somewhat disappointing people in March is fine as long as the release date doesn't slip. He has to assume he will have a sporty M3 competitors from Nissan and perhaps one other company.
I think somewhat disappointing people in March is fine as long as the release date doesn't slip. He has to assume he will have a sporty M3 competitors from Nissan and perhaps one other company.
chickensevil
Active Member
I get complaining about a lack of folding seats (If that is what you really wanted, shame on them for not providing it, as they just lost some business which is generally not a good thing), but that is one small thing in the grand scheme of the prototype that overall panned out exactly as it was shown if not better than it was shown (auto-presenting doors / new front end / air filter / faster times / better performance / bigger battery / etc). If they hold off showing the M3 because they may end up being forced to pull one feature in order to make others happen then I don't think they should be hit on that. Seriously, that was like, the only thing promised and not delivered on.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Many of us (myself included), believe that M3 demand will be huge.
The reason I believe that is that I believe the M3 will be as compelling as EM can possibly make it for $35k. Why do I believe that? Because EM loves to do that, and he believes it's good business. Two ways to not to accomplish that:
1. Intentionally make the M3 worse to avoid cannibalizing MS-MX sales. EM won't do that.
2. Sell the M3 with a 50kWh pack (the Bolt has a 60kWh pack). Keep in mind that GM's pack costs will be between $175-$200 per kWH and TSLA's will be between $90-$125 per kWH. Can you see EM explaining that even though the Bolt has a larger pack why the M3 has a similar or slightly greater range? EM definitely won't do that! I expect that the base pack will be at least 70kWh, maybe slightly more if that would push the range over 300 miles.
How long do you think it will take (I have no idea) before analysts, the press and investors who are short TSLA to figure out that traditional OEM's don't currently pose a credible threat to TSLA?
The reason I believe that is that I believe the M3 will be as compelling as EM can possibly make it for $35k. Why do I believe that? Because EM loves to do that, and he believes it's good business. Two ways to not to accomplish that:
1. Intentionally make the M3 worse to avoid cannibalizing MS-MX sales. EM won't do that.
2. Sell the M3 with a 50kWh pack (the Bolt has a 60kWh pack). Keep in mind that GM's pack costs will be between $175-$200 per kWH and TSLA's will be between $90-$125 per kWH. Can you see EM explaining that even though the Bolt has a larger pack why the M3 has a similar or slightly greater range? EM definitely won't do that! I expect that the base pack will be at least 70kWh, maybe slightly more if that would push the range over 300 miles.
The reaction will be very interesting. There is a common misconception in the financial community and the auto industry that when the established OEM's start producing EV's TSLA won't be able to compete. I think to some extent GM is complacent, because they believe that as soon as they get serious about producing EV's they will be able to beat TSLA, or at least compete with TSLA. A great thing that could come out of this would be for GM (and Toyota, VW, etc.) to realize that their survival is on the line.
How long do you think it will take (I have no idea) before analysts, the press and investors who are short TSLA to figure out that traditional OEM's don't currently pose a credible threat to TSLA?
Not showing a prototype in March will lead most people to assume that they don't have a production prototype and are massively behind schedule.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
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