Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[FredTMC]

I'm throughly irritated by Oil's collapse and resulting market dive this year:

1). Great timing on lifting sanctions on Iran. If not for Iran, we'd probably already have a production cut agreement.

2). Can't believe there's been no war-related flair up somewhere in the world. e.g. ISIS, Etc. Ideally near straight of "hair-moose". We DID have Iran capture our navy guys / patrol boat but they returned them peacefully/quickly.

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Not sure if this can affect price action or not, but it is notable that Tesla has just increased their roadside assistance in North America from 50 miles to 500 miles!

This Broke a day or two ago. I can't see this affecting SP

 

[Svetlin]

I hope oil stays low for a few more months. Then if we have one or two decent earnings seasons, people will finally remember that low oil prices actually help the US economy (duh). This will also give Tesla a chance to decouple form oil. It will be really unfortunate if a rebound of the markets and Tesla in particular is tied to a rebound in oil. That's a missed opportunity to make the world realize that oil is dying and that's OK.

 

[Tenable]

Sorry if I'm not enthused on a day when we are down. Not sure any longs would be

@Dreaming I completely understand your frustration. Many of us are losing a lot of money across our portfolios, at least in terms of our long term holdings. However, I'm continuing to buy on price drops. I think its important to maintain perspective. Your wife wanted you to use your money to pay down a mortgage. In a vacuum at this moment, that would seem to be the better decision. However, you need to remind yourself that you invested with a long term net result in mind. A 3-4% drop in share prices from the highs of yesterday, on a day when the majority of the market is falling shouldn't (hopefully) shake your resolve. Strap in, stop watching the stock price minute by minute and have faith in the management you've invested in.

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I hope oil stays low for a few more months. Then if we have one or two decent earnings seasons, people will finally remember that low oil prices actually help the US economy (duh). This will also give Tesla a chance to decouple form oil. It will be really unfortunate if a rebound of the markets and Tesla in particular is tied to a rebound in oil. That's a missed opportunity to make the world realize that oil is dying and that's OK.

Its looking like your wish is likely to come true, at least in terms of oil prices. Perhaps for much longer.

 

[v12 to 12v]

Sorry if I'm not enthused on a day when we are down. Not sure any longs would be

Some longs take these swings in stride. These are small moves compared to what went on in 2012, 2013. I admit that I missed those big move days.

 

[Irishjugg]

Sorry if I'm not enthused on a day when we are down. Not sure any longs would be

If we are down for irrational reasons, you need to not care. Oil doesn't matter to Tesla, but the market thinks it matters to TSLA because the market it's pretty ignorant. I'm a long and have no issue with today. For now just understand we tend to move in the same direction of oil. Useful for trying to do short term timing games, but not much else. Soon we will have actual catalysts that should let us rise regardless, but if the macro "sucks" we still could stagnate.

 

[Jgint]

What is going on with CPO sales and low inventory PAR levels compared to the past? Any stock impact from this +/- ?

 

[Gerasimental]

What time are short interest numbers released?

 

[Bgarret]

What is going on with CPO sales and low inventory PAR levels compared to the past? Any stock impact from this +/- ?

If you look on any of the CPO discussion threads - mostly relying on Hank - 80% of the CPO inventory was taken off the board and the cars provided to Tesla service centers as loaners. It will take a bit to refill the pipeline with "new" CPO's from trade-ins and lease expirations. The anecdotal reason given for this was loaners and cars for test drives were being sold out each quarter and they wanted to stop having to go to Enterprise and rent ICE cars for service loaners. Earnings hit should be minimal - likely a good idea on Tesla's part, but a disappointment to those who were looking to get a CPO car.

 

[Tenable]

I was recently forced to use Enterprise when I dropped my car off. I took it in stride initially, however, Enterprise made me wait for 45 minutes before giving me a Chrysler 300. While the car wasn't ideal, I took significant objection to the waste of my time. I scheduled the appointment over a month out, I had not planned to have an hour removed from my day. As an owner and a shareholder I'm glad to hear they are taking steps to maintain a fleet of loaners. Financials are important, but so is maintaining owner satisfaction.

 

[sub]

I think it makes more sense to do this with the CPO cars rather than taking new production to refill the pipeline. I trust Tesla has run the numbers.

 

[austinEV]

Not sure if this can affect price action or not, but it is notable that Tesla has just increased their roadside assistance in North America from 50 miles to 500 miles!

View attachment 112511

As someone who has had a rash of flat tires lately I have to say that the Tesla roadside assistance is really awesome. I got a blowout, pulled off, called RA. They arranged for the tow and said I didn't need to be there. I Ubered home and they just took care of the rest. Seamless.

 

[Julian Cox]

Well funny you mentioned that-I'm thinking of going to Vegas March 8th......but I think they have internet there. Define strength. Is it losing 40% in 6 weeks?

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FYI Julian if this isn't 250 by end of May you owe us all a video of you eating your unwashed socks.

Right. Pep talk time.

Today I woke up to the cathartic resolution of my personal mid-life identity crisis.

I am a Free Market Environmentalist. There.

As a Free Market Environmentalist, I cannot wait to see TSLA shorts skewered and squealing like stuck pigs. I think you would resonate with that.

Hold up a mirror for a moment. How much do you think the shorts would love to see a TSLA Long squirming on TMC as a proxy for how TSLA longs must be feeling? Hint, they don't feel that way at all, especially not Longs like you and I that have no actual margin or time pressure. Relax, let Musk do his thing 80+ hours a week. It's not your problem it's his and he's brilliant.

I have not given you a personal sock guarantee as a prophecy of sock eating. I have done it to put an end to the misery of watching you squirm and I expect that return from you for going on risk in this manner or the deal is off. Assuming you accept the sock gauntlet, go comfort your wife, you did OK, time will prove it.

TSLA presently $174 and going vertical. We will have after hours manipulation and recovery on daytime volume up until the point that Musk sticks a fork in them. Which he can and will.

Meanwhile this is a day-trader's dream. Buy the morning dip, sell in the afternoon. Rinse and repeat. You are not a day trader. Obviously. Enjoy the SpaceX show this evening and may the Force be with you.

 

[AlMc]

what time are short interest numbers released?

iirc 4pm est

 

[dreamingof3]

Right. Pep talk time.

Today I woke up to the cathartic resolution of my personal mid-life identity crisis.

I am a Free Market Environmentalist. There.

As a Free Market Environmentalist, I cannot wait to see TSLA shorts skewered and squealing like stuck pigs. I think you would resonate with that.

Hold up a mirror for a moment. How much do you think the shorts would love to see a TSLA Long squirming on TMC as a proxy for how TSLA longs must be feeling? Hint, they don't feel that way at all, especially not Longs like you and I that have no actual margin or time pressure. Relax, let Musk do his thing 80+ hours a week. It's not your problem it's his and he's brilliant.

I have not given you a personal sock guarantee as a prophecy of sock eating. I have done it to put an end to the misery of watching you squirm and I expect that return from you for going on risk in this manner or the deal is off. Assuming you accept the sock gauntlet, go comfort your wife, you did OK, time will prove it.

TSLA presently $174 and going vertical. We will have after hours manipulation and recovery on daytime volume up until the point that Musk sticks a fork in them. Which he can and will.

Meanwhile this is a day-trader's dream. Buy the morning dip, sell in the afternoon. Rinse and repeat. You are not a day trader. Obviously. Enjoy the SpaceX show this evening and may the Force be with you.

Thanks Julian - your optimism has calmed me as usual. Also, TLSA rebounding to 1.59 is pleasing to me. You are correct, I don't trade on margin therefore have no time requirements other than wanting a decent long term return. The thing you hit on the head the most is me wanting shorts to fry. As I have stated before, they are an abusive, vindictive, hyper-misinformation, FUD spreading machine. There is one in particular that seems to spend an exorbitant amount of time trying to spread fear in the markets about Tesla's every move. Since I have a policy of not naming these trolls/perma-bears/ultra Tesla haters, I will merely hint that he posts extremely long posts on Seeking alpha. None of these I would care to read or would recommend reading. He also frequents yahoo message boards with a variety of names.

PS- to all of the longs on this board, short interest is due out by 4:30 today I believe after market close. I CANNOT WAIT

 

[techmaven]

TSLA has been pretty strong as of late, but I caution that this market is very jittery. In many ways, this is ideal for nimble traders, but if you are a long, you shouldn't be caught up with the gyrations day to day. There's still a lot of nervousness and oil prices will drive TSLA stock for now. Of course, the excitement of the Model 3 reservations at the end of March is a huge catalyst. As is signs of increased production of the Model X.

 

[jhm]

I hope oil stays low for a few more months. Then if we have one or two decent earnings seasons, people will finally remember that low oil prices actually help the US economy (duh). This will also give Tesla a chance to decouple form oil. It will be really unfortunate if a rebound of the markets and Tesla in particular is tied to a rebound in oil. That's a missed opportunity to make the world realize that oil is dying and that's OK.

I agree. If oil prices either stay close to $30 and the economy continues to grow, over enough time this should allow decoupling to happen. Increasingly economic growth and oil consumption are diconnected in the real economy. All sorts of technologies enable increasing energy productivity. For example, shopping on line at say Amazon reduces the number of trips to and from stores whole the logistics of UPS and FedEx minimize the fuel required to get your purchases to your home. These fleets are making increased use of CNG to boot. Or video conferencing minimizes the need for business travel. So technology enables economic growth with increasingly lower inputs of fossil fuels and other commodities. So it is not just renewable energy and EVS which are cutting into demand for oil. Pretty much all technology is economically displacing oil.

What the oil industry hangs it's hope on is increased motorization rates in developing countries. But the wealth formation needed to stimulate auto ownership in developing economies depends on electrification. Solar and batteries make tremendous strides in this part of the world, taking electricity where grids never found it economical to operate. As solar, batteries and microgrids leapfrog the grids, EV ownership will make more sense than ICE ownership. So this growth edge that the oil industry is counting on may not yeild much demand for oil over the next 20 years. Presently China is the biggest auto growth market, but China has reached the limits of breathable air. EVs could take off in this market to the grave disappointment of the oil industry. The cleaner China's power generation mix becomes, the more beneficial EVs become as well. China is the biggest installer of wind and solar. It has cut coal imports by 30% and is scaling back its domestic coal industry. These sorts of investments yield even better social and economic benefits the quicker the auto fleet is electrified too. So the problem for oil is not that China's GDP is only growing at 6.9%. The problem is that China wants to grow it's economy using far fewer fossil fuels.

 

[maoing]

Tesla Model X Falcon Door Lets Water Rush Right On In

As many folks wondered before.

 

[ibcs]

Right. Pep talk time.

Today I woke up to the cathartic resolution of my personal mid-life identity crisis.

I am a Free Market Environmentalist. There.

As a Free Market Environmentalist, I cannot wait to see TSLA shorts skewered and squealing like stuck pigs. I think you would resonate with that.

Hold up a mirror for a moment. How much do you think the shorts would love to see a TSLA Long squirming on TMC as a proxy for how TSLA longs must be feeling? Hint, they don't feel that way at all, especially not Longs like you and I that have no actual margin or time pressure. Relax, let Musk do his thing 80+ hours a week. It's not your problem it's his and he's brilliant.

I have not given you a personal sock guarantee as a prophecy of sock eating. I have done it to put an end to the misery of watching you squirm and I expect that return from you for going on risk in this manner or the deal is off. Assuming you accept the sock gauntlet, go comfort your wife, you did OK, time will prove it.

TSLA presently $174 and going vertical. We will have after hours manipulation and recovery on daytime volume up until the point that Musk sticks a fork in them. Which he can and will.

Meanwhile this is a day-trader's dream. Buy the morning dip, sell in the afternoon. Rinse and repeat. You are not a day trader. Obviously. Enjoy the SpaceX show this evening and may the Force be with you.

Hi Julian,

I only want to comment on your last statement to that Tesla is a day trader's dream. You hit the nail on the head. You may not get the run up before the bell, but those that are patient and wait for the morning dip and sell once it's up a 2-3 dollars are rewarded. The only requirement, to avoid excess taxes you need to do this activity in a retirement plan such as a 401k. One additional benefit, by not holding overnight you reduce your risk of a 10 point drop before the bell as well.

 

[FluxCap]

Another Oil Crash Is Coming, and There May Be No Recovery - Bloomberg Business

 

[Julian Cox]

Tesla Model X Falcon Door Lets Water Rush Right On In

As many folks wondered before.

A door, one that is being fixed. Not doors in general or even plural. The customer's other door apparently does not have a missing rainwater guide channel.