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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Commodity Price Charts

It looks like oil is ready to take another plunge this week. While I am by no means a technical analyst, this chart looks bad. A bear flag. Perhaps TA folks here can give it a look.

Aside from the chart, it is becoming clear that OPEC is not going to cut production. Indeed the Saudis my try to out do Iran. The National Bank of Abu Dhabi says that Saudi Arabia has another 2 mb/d of capacity that it could ramp up. This glut is not going to resolve this year. It may actually intensify.

So be prepared for oil to test $25. This may well open up another buying op for Tesla, as if we needed more. I hope I'm wrong.
 
The main reason they are more expensive is lower energy density. I am working on a more detailed explanation, which will be included in my post on prices.


You should take this into account as well:

Typically, lithium-ion NCA batteries use a combination of 80% nickel, 15% cobalt and 5% aluminum.

Many traditional NMC batteries use one-third equal parts nickel, manganese, and cobalt.

That's a pretty sizable reduction of nickel and a moderate increase in cobalt, of course we don't know the exact ratios that Tesla is using. Musk did say "there is quite a lot of manganese in there".
http://fortune.com/2015/05/18/tesla-grid-batteries-chemistry/
 
Julian, that was a fine letter that you wrote to Indiana legislators. I read the whole thing, but I have to wonder if they will. Regarding intra-brand competition, is that not regarding dealer markups rather than the wholesale price charged to dealers? In effect, Tesla is selling something resembling wholesale to consumers. Tesla and the other manufacturers are selling to their actual buyers for what the market will bear. If Tesla charges too much to inspire demand, they would have to either charge less or go out of business. They don't have a monopoly in automobiles. Although perhaps Tesla is not charging enough, since they have a long backlog of orders. In any event, in supposedly free America it should be the filter of the marketplace and its customers that select winning products and business models, not legislators.

Meanwhile, I’ve always suspected that Tesla was waiting for the departure of Justice Scalia before going to federal court regarding the states that legislate contrary to the US Constitution’s interstate commerce clause. Scalia preferred a soft interpretation of the clause as a bow to a state’s right to legislate commerce as it sees fit. The FTC sees the clause in a more absolute sense.

General Motors should be pleased if Tesla wins in federal court. It would be to the benefit of all manufacturers. Perhaps Barra may be trying to force Tesla to do just that.
 
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Julian, that was a fine letter that you wrote to Indiana legislators. I read the whole thing, but I have to wonder if they will. Regarding intra-brand competition, is that not regarding dealer markups rather than the wholesale price charged to dealers? In effect, Tesla is selling something resembling wholesale to consumers. Tesla and the other manufacturers are selling to their actual buyers for what the market will bear. If Tesla charges too much to inspire demand, they would have to either charge less or go out of business. They don't have a monopoly in automobiles. Although perhaps Tesla is not charging enough, since they have a long backlog of orders. In any event, in supposedly free America it should be the filter of the marketplace and its customers that select winning products and business models, not legislators.

Meanwhile, I’ve always suspected that Tesla was waiting for the departure of Justice Scalia before going to federal court regarding the states that legislate contrary to the US Constitution’s interstate commerce clause. Scalia preferred a soft interpretation of the clause as a bow to a state’s right to legislate commerce as it sees fit. The FTC sees the clause in a more absolute sense.

General Motors should be pleased if Tesla wins in federal court. It would be to the benefit of all manufacturers. Perhaps Barra may be trying to force Tesla to do just that.

Thank you, I want to say that you're sort of correct about Tesla selling wholesale to consumers to return a compliment, but I can't because strictly it isn't true by any definition. Tesla is definitely retailing to consumers and just like dealers have done for their businesses, Tesla has invested independently for its own business to succeed in brand building and all the necessary infrastructure and systems and staffing required to address the consumer market. Dealers can reasonably expect to benefit from their investment so long as consumers value it in exactly the same way that Tesla expects to. Neither should have to deal with anti-competitive obstruction either from one another or from any third party. These are simply competitors like any two businesses independently seeking to attract similar customers.

The big distinctions really come out by looking at it from the reverse angle. For example: What possible right or justification does a dealer have to demand a cut of Tesla's business against Tesla's will?

Secondly, you are of course right in saying that that intra-brand competition over dealer to consumer markup on cars ignores the wholesale markup that the consumer must also pay for his car. But that does not describe the whole transaction or even the main part when it comes to dealer profits. ICE car sales (the basis of all analogies used by NADA, GM etc) are sold by dealers with a warranty as part of the consumer value proposition whose value is conditional upon the consumer showing up and paying for regular inspections and maintenance services.

Tesla's sale with a warranty is not conditional on showing up and paying for routine maintenance. You buy the car with a warranty, then own a car with a warranty. The end.

A dealer performing the normal functions of a dealership cannot add any consumer value to that process on Tesla's behalf at least not competitively or without raising the price to the consumer. To suggest otherwise is a nebulous claim of which there is no proof. To claim it as a fact on the basis of the way ICE cars are traded and serviced is just blatantly misleading, most likely false and Tesla does not want it anyway for a host of competitive reasons that to overrule at law is anti-competitive by definition.

To your last point, of course GM would be pleased as punch to get rid of the requirement to use dealers. If they don't they will go bust. The business model is absolutely unsustainable in the face of competition from EVs and especially fleets of Autonomous EVs providing transport as a commodity that don't need any sales inventory or any salesmen. Just charging and not for profit service centers (like Tesla has).

The trouble that GM is in and should not be allowed to escape from is that there is a relationship between GM and its dealerships whereby the dealership industry as a whole has fair claim to having invested for a hundred years in established the consumer brand and market for GM. It is not reasonable for GM to simply take over the benefit of that effort without fair compensation. Fair meaning not negotiated under threat of supply starvation or under threat of a GM-owned dealership establishing itself next door and competing with it on price.

Bottom line GM is in a hard place. This is tech disruption. The consumers that vote for the politicians that are supposed to represent the interests of The People (and not the car dealers) are universally disgusted with the idea of being forced to use dealerships against their will, even if they hate Tesla or the whole idea of EVs.

There is nothing realistic that Mary Barra can do about it. The true level playing field here exists between Elon Musk (and now Elon Musk and his Co-Investors) and GM and theirs. If GM wants to compete with Tesla it needs to do exactly what Elon did. Invest in an independent startup dedicated to making EVs. It can be a big well funded startup, but there are no short cuts. GM and its dealership business model will and must die like anything else that has reached the end of its life.

Trying to force Franchised Dealers in front of connected EV technology is about as realistic as Horse Drawn Hackney Carriage lobbyist backed legislation to have a manservant with a red flag walk ahead of the first automobiles to keep them from going too fast and scaring horses. Laws like that are swept away by economics of disruption, not the other way around.
 
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The Saudi chap's comments about oil production not getting cut are certainly going to have an effect on the oil price. And much as I would rather have it differently, the track record for TSLA is that it seems to rise and fall generally with the movements in oil prices. Therefore we should expect the price to fall in the short term - this week, anyway. (yes I am generally bullish on Tesla)

The concept of GM wanting the dealer laws issue to finally get resolved (via all this cage rattling) is interesting. Perhaps they would want to establish a new division that focuses on BEVs? (they have done this sort of thing before - Saturn) The new division would do its own sales and servicing... and not use 3rd-party franchised dealers. Or, perhaps they would want Cadillac to become a manufacturer-sold-and-serviced brand, but Chevy and other basic brands would continue with 3rd-party dealers.
 
The Saudi chap's comments about oil production not getting cut are certainly going to have an effect on the oil price. And much as I would rather have it differently, the track record for TSLA is that it seems to rise and fall generally with the movements in oil prices. Therefore we should expect the price to fall in the short term - this week, anyway. (yes I am generally bullish on Tesla)

The concept of GM wanting the dealer laws issue to finally get resolved (via all this cage rattling) is interesting. Perhaps they would want to establish a new division that focuses on BEVs? (they have done this sort of thing before - Saturn) The new division would do its own sales and servicing... and not use 3rd-party franchised dealers. Or, perhaps they would want Cadillac to become a manufacturer-sold-and-serviced brand, but Chevy and other basic brands would continue with 3rd-party dealers.

The only trick to survive tech disruption is to make a completely independent company that is small enough to benefit from addressing the available market for a new technology and to grow with it aggressively with massive top tier management rewards for taking single digit percentages of the market (bit like Tesla) - including the ability to compete with the mother company and ultimately send it bust and/or take over the useful assets of the mother and discard the rest without consequence. GM operates on sub 5% annual net margins and most of their assets much of their staff and their entire culture is rendered obsolete by connected EV tech. They make engines, transmissions, steel chassis and steel body panels - everything else pretty much is outsourced - they have almost no relevant assets and huge overheads and they are about to prove that having a history of selling a lot of ICE vehicles really means not a lot for a GM EV because a better equipped startup with far greater value of relevant assets and a massively more sophisticated engineering team has a better brand when it comes to EVs, by far, backed up by a ridiculously better and cheaper product. 5% is too slim to deal with stranding engine production lines and laying off engine assembly workers and they are not an attractive target for investment or lending or even government assistance to let them tool up again in batteries, inverters and motors. Neither are they an attractive destination for engineering talent with relevant skills. Taking 100% of the current "EV market" won't keep GM afloat for a week even with no restructuring costs.
 
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2016 will be not only the year when Tesla goes from [public perception]: niche car maker, fancy toys for the wealthy early adopters to a company that unveils a product that design wise, technology wise and value-to-customer wise will put any and all competition (ICE, PHEV, BEV) far behind and set Tesla on a sure path to huge growth in the coming years. At the same time Tesla is catalyzing the processes of doing away with the symbiotic relations between car manufacturers and dealers in the US, which will surely make a bigger dent in the US economy than Tesla selling tens of thousands of cars (even a few hundred thousand) thus taking sales from competition. Fascinating.
 
Then he's using an odd tactic by claiming Tesla will be faking the Model 3 reservations numbers. If anyone actually believed him his article would theoretically push the price down, not up. I'd say it's more likely that with his long history of negativity towards Tesla he simply can't help himself, even after he's covered his short position.

Just want to add another data point. In the months leading up to and after the i3 launch I was very active in the i3 Facebook Group. Anton was also there, and at first I thought it was nice that a Journalist actually cared about the many unique things that make the i3 a great car and not dismiss it like many did. Unfortunately after reading a few of his articles I noticed that he was only praising the i3 in hopes that it takes away sales from the Model S, which I don't think it did.
 
Interesting view on peak oil The Peak Oil Myth and the Rise of the Electric Car - Bloomberg for iPhone The Peak Oil Myth and the Rise of the Electric Car - Bloomberg Business

Nice. It sounds like they've been reading my posts. They use the figure of EVS offsetting demand for 15 barrels per year pet car, which on 15k miles per year is 1000 miles per barrel or about 24 mpg. They are making a strong assumption about other automakers keeping market share against Tesla in the EV space. And this assumption gets them to a tipping point earlier than what I have proposed. Also I think they are framing this in cumulative EV sales such that they need to get to 50M EV cumulative to his 2 mb/d offset. My view has been that annual EV sales needs to get to 1 mb/d offset, 25M EV per year. This offset is needed to soak up demand growth for oil. So again my approach leads to a critical year that is a couple of years after theirs. My view is 2025 to 2029. What's missing in both of these approaches are all the other ways in which oil demand is being lost. Increasing fuel efficiency and substitutions of natural gas for oil also soften demand, and I believe these are contributing to the present glut. So combining these trends make plausible that oil demand will go into structural decline before 2025. 2023 is certainly plausible.

The thing to watch is the decline in consumption growth. In 2015, consumption rose about 1.6 mb/d, but much of this may simply be a response to substantially lower prices. Demand measured in dollars, not barrels, has surely fallen. So what happens as prices recover to say $45. Is the world economy willing to pay 50% more in aggregate for oil, or will consumption fall? In aggregate dollars for oil we may well be post peak. So we'll keep our eyes on consumption. When consumption falls year over year, we'll know that we are quite close to structural decline.
 
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Not sure if this can affect price action or not, but it is notable that Tesla has just increased their roadside assistance in North America from 50 miles to 500 miles!

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I'm enthused. Tesla has shown strength recently against a down market. Shouldn't you be taking a vacation somewhere where Internet is not available?
Well funny you mentioned that-I'm thinking of going to Vegas March 8th......but I think they have internet there. Define strength. Is it losing 40% in 6 weeks?

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FYI Julian if this isn't 250 by end of May you owe us all a video of you eating your unwashed socks.
 
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