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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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The reason why we look at "free cash flow" is because it is a measurement of if a business can financially sustain itself. Becoming "net cash flow positive" by leveraging yourself through further borrowing defeats the spirit of this metric.

However, in Tesla's defense, outside of "free" vs "net" cash flow and the debate over their financial soundness, the key takeaway is that they won't need outside capital because their available credit line is enough. This was the fear that drove the stock down so much, this is the question that has been answered. Eventually they will still have to achieve "true" "free cash flow" positive. Jason Wheeler stated on the call that they cannot depend on this "drug" referring to the ABL. But for now, what is important is this "drug" can sustain Tesla and it won't need to go to the capital markets for the time being.

I agree, and would like to add handful of thoughts re FCF.

My understanding is that the only difference btw. real FCF and this net one is drawing on ABL as a temporary buffer between time car is produced and delivered to the customer, if it's customer bound.
Considering they still have no problems selling, I find this metric reasonable, and as they grow and have more cars on ships, it allows them to see state of the business better. Otherwise delivery time would mess up the picture.
It puts them on even keel with other manufacturers, as manufacturers sell to dealers, and recognize revenue immediately. Actually, I may be wrong, .but my understanding is that demos and other cars without customer name on them would not be borrowed against. That still makes them more conservative and at disadvantage compared to other car manufacturers.

But here is the real litmus test: If I were leading Tesla, which number would I rather see and measured myself against? What is the number that underpins other numbers and I can track and effect? This 'net cash flow' is a really good metric, as all noise goes away. You care about your orders, execution on them, costs, selling price. Sure you pay some attention to delivery times etc, but that's not make it or break it thing.

Welcome Jason!
 
Hey TSLA, the markets recovered here at the close. Feel free to run up into the close.
Something is wrong with the stock. Can't hold the majority of it's gains and what doesn't help is the hate pieces by Charlie Grant at WSJ
Example-

High of day 163

Low 147

A measure of strength or weakness in a stock is how close it closes to high or low of day.

Current 151.45. Not a good sign of strength.
 
Will we see a run up into today's close or a fade? Any ideas?

Won't know much until Monday until after noise from options makers settles. With the weekly options expirations these days and overall broad market weak, and not recovering, the options makers can and will probably ping TSLA to $150 tomorrow at close.

After that, on Monday and later, a lot depends on the broad markets.....and whether a sufficient number of large buyers are believing in what Elon said on the CC with a back end loaded last 6 months of ' 16 for both full positive cash flow and full year delivery targets.

If if it goes near the $120 mark I will be doubling down.
 
Something is wrong with the stock. Can't hold the majority of it's gains and what doesn't help is the hate pieces by Charlie Grant at WSJ
Example-

High of day 163

Low 147

A measure of strength or weakness in a stock is how close it closes to high or low of day.

Current 151.45. Not a good sign of strength.

TSLA will do fine once macro recession fears subside. No appetite for growth stocks until global concerns are behind us
 
I was hoping Elon would have answered, "are you really asking a question, or just filling in your narrative". The questions were obviously meant to build a story that Tesla will run out of cash any day. WSJ and the Tribune companies seem to have an editorial policy in place for Tesla, SpaceX and anything Elon.

Something is wrong with the stock. Can't hold the majority of it's gains and what doesn't help is the hate pieces by Charlie Grant at WSJ
Example-

High of day 163

Low 147

A measure of strength or weakness in a stock is how close it closes to high or low of day.

Current 151.45. Not a good sign of strength.
 
Won't know much until Monday until after noise from options makers settles. With the weekly options expirations these days and overall broad market weak, and not recovering, the options makers can and will probably ping TSLA to $150 tomorrow at close.

After that, on Monday and later, a lot depends on the broad markets.....and whether a sufficient number of large buyers are believing in what Elon said on the CC with a back end loaded last 6 months of ' 16 for both full positive cash flow and full year delivery targets.

If if it goes near the $120 mark I will be doubling down.

I think Monday is a bank holiday in NA? So wait for Tesla Tuesday. :scared:
 
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