Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Quant]

I was hoping Elon would have answered, "are you really asking a question, or just filling in your narrative". The questions were obviously meant to build a story that Tesla will run out of cash any day. WSJ and the Tribune companies seem to have an editorial policy in place for Tesla, SpaceX and anything Elon.

Well the WSJ Journal is no longer the old WSJ. The new WSJ is really an extension of FOX News!

They will slam and write bad stuff about any CEO or company which is not supporting their ultra right , ultra conservative cause ( and are constantly only picking writers with that point of view and the other objective writers have left ).

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I think Monday is a bank holiday in NA? So wait for Tesla Tuesday. :scared:

You are correct ! I forgot about the holiday because Washingtons Birthday or Presidents' Day is not really celebrated in any specific way ( other than for retail shopping sales and Valentine's Day shopping ) .

 

[Intl Professor]

I don't read the Journal these days, but Joe Nocera now with the NY Times and a long-time Journal Business reporter who knows the Bancroft Family, says they now regret selling it to Murdoch since his promise not to tamper with reporting proved a "fib," to put it lightly.

 

[mrdoubleb]

So, obviously, macro concerns are still around and Tesla management has burned some credibility with some investors and analysts, so while people seem to be excited about 2016 prognosis, not everyone is ready to take it at face value.

I start to think Monday, April 4th 2016 may be the most important day for TSLA this year. Let me tell you why:

- Model 3 reveal on Thursday, March 31st, with some in-store reservations starting after that (only a few hours left of the day, probably)
- Then, just as all this starts to hit the news cycle, online reservations start on Friday, April 1st.
- If we have a huge response, we may get a tweet from Elon about it over the weekend and some more news coverage. If it's something major to brag about we may even get a PR about early numbers on Monday.
- Also over this same weekend, we should receive the Q1 delivery numbers. If they do hit 16k cars delivered, this will instantly validate the 2016 plan/projections. In other words: I believe there is a huge pent up upwards reassure on TSLA because of these impressive goals, but many are on the fence whether these are realistic. If Q1 goes as planned, that should make it very clear the X is in true mass production.​

In the above "perfect storm" scenario, I do see all time highs possible for TSLA - as unlikely as that may seem today.

 

[austinEV]

well some M3 predictions are coming in:

Elon Musk on Twitter:

$1000 reservations, with no sigs (all one cost). Also reservations will be open for 1 day before online reservations, so big media friendly lines!!

Edit: old news I guess, I am not sure how I missed it.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

- Model 3 reveal on Thursday, March 31st, with some in-store reservations starting after that (only a few hours left of the day, probably)

I expect reservations will open as soon as any individual store opens.
For faithfuls, this will be a sight unseen reservation.
Also makes for an interesting talking point and as a part of narrative of changing society.
If they can drum up excitement to have line ups outside some of the stores, can you imagine the story:

"Tesla 3 buyers line up from dawn to put deposit on the car no one has seen yet!"
English is my second language, I'm sure most people can make it sound better than my phrasing
I'm likely to be there in the line...

 

[techmaven]

Very weak close, only kept a third of peak gain. Not good!

Wow, with this sea of red, TSLA did well today. Would love it to be better, but relatively it was good that investors did not just sell regardless of the results.

 

[Lump]

From your favorite publisher comes a few cash comments.

A Tesla Innovation Investors Can Do Without - MoneyBeat - WSJ

Analyst moves from today Tesla Motors (TSLA) - Stock Predictions Price Targets

 

[joseph7h]

@techmaven, I have expected the bounce to be even stronger, with higher price gains. There're still a lot negative comments out of analysts, e.g. multiple PT cuts. I hope the stock now is at least stabilizing if not going straight up to ~$200 level.

 

[Muaddid]

I expect reservations will open as soon as any individual store opens.
For faithfuls, this will be a sight unseen reservation.

How I read it was that following the reveal, people present at the Tesla stores would be able to reserve before it becomes available online, similar to how people at the reveal in California for Model S & X.

While it may not be as "impressive" as people making lines in the morning and reserving a car they have not seen yet, the total amount of people willing to come in person will be bigger than if it is the morning I think. Hopefully earlier than the launch of model X so the 10h pm news can cover it right away (rather than covering it on an april 1st...)

 

[Chickenlittle]

Very weak close, only kept a third of peak gain. Not good!

Compared to rest of market, it was a superstar today. Look forward to your second post

 

[FredTMC]

I still haven't seen the media pick up the second Options Excercised by Elon on Feb 8th. Bigger than the first one. Over 600K shares

 

[everman]

I should have stated the hypothesis more precisely. I meant higher end versions not options.

People's Model 3 Hypothesis: Tesla will begin with the base model at $35k in 2017 and progressively add higher end versions and new features.

Another way to put this is that Tesla will not initially offer a performance version with ludicrous. If you want a car that can do 0 to 60 in 2.5s, you can content yourself with a Model S P90D or wait a year or two for the Model 3 P80D.

This made me super sad all of a sudden... :crying:

 

[sub]

Originally Posted by jhm
I should have stated the hypothesis more precisely. I meant higher end versions not options.

People's Model 3 Hypothesis: Tesla will begin with the base model at $35k in 2017 and progressively add higher end versions and new features.

Another way to put this is that Tesla will not initially offer a performance version with ludicrous. If you want a car that can do 0 to 60 in 2.5s, you can content yourself with a Model S P90D or wait a year or two for the Model 3 P80D."

I disagree with this, I do not believe that Tesla will only offer low performance models to begin with. I think Tesla has that part of the car completely dialed in, there is nothing in that department that is new on the X, so how could Elon be referring to insane or Lud power when he said the car was too complicated? I'm sure he was referring to the doors, seats, window, air filtration system etc. I believe they will keep the same basic system, higher priced cars first (even if there are no sigs) then start mixing in the lower priced orders.

 

[larmor]

Tesla stores will literally break for M3... Why: when i went to a preview of model S at fashion island store, at night, it was packed. When I saw model x preview in fashion island, store was packed.

If they make a car on par with bmw 3 series, the tesla store will break.

 

[everman]

Originally Posted by jhm
I should have stated the hypothesis more precisely. I meant higher end versions not options.

People's Model 3 Hypothesis: Tesla will begin with the base model at $35k in 2017 and progressively add higher end versions and new features.

Another way to put this is that Tesla will not initially offer a performance version with ludicrous. If you want a car that can do 0 to 60 in 2.5s, you can content yourself with a Model S P90D or wait a year or two for the Model 3 P80D."

I disagree with this, I do not believe that Tesla will only offer low performance models to begin with. I think Tesla has that part of the car completely dialed in, there is nothing in that department that is new on the X, so how could Elon be referring to insane or Lud power when he said the car was too complicated? I'm sure he was referring to the doors, seats, window, air filtration system etc. I believe they will keep the same basic system, higher priced cars first (even if there are no sigs) then start mixing in the lower priced orders.

Yes, I agree here. A larger battery pack and inconel contactor are some of the easiest things to slap into a car on the assembly line. It's the amenities and features like motor driven doors and monopost seats that seem to add manufacturing configuration and calibration assembly issues. The P version is also a mainstay in showing that the electric drivetrain is just better.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

well some M3 predictions are coming in:

Elon Musk on Twitter:

$1000 reservations, with no sigs (all one cost). Also reservations will be open for 1 day before online reservations, so big media friendly lines!!

Edit: old news I guess, I am not sure how I missed it.

I'm glad they are doing away with the Signature Series. It's nothing but a headache for customers. Look at all the Model X Sig holders who have no news on the status of their X, even as general production Xs are rolling out of the factory.

 

[eloder]

Yes, I agree here. A larger battery pack and inconel contactor are some of the easiest things to slap into a car on the assembly line. It's the amenities and features like motor driven doors and monopost seats that seem to add manufacturing configuration and calibration assembly issues. The P version is also a mainstay in showing that the electric drivetrain is just better.

I'd have to agree.

I think Musk's clarification was simply that customers could order a base Model 3 from a reservation, just like you can today. You can order a base Model X, it's just going to come after the higher performance versions.

Likewise, it'd be insane for them not to start off with the higher performance versions to help recoup losses. In fact, I think if Tesla has high enough demand, they could even start producing ahead of schedule--keeping mass production until late 17, early 18 but perhaps having Model 3s start trickling off a few months earlier than that. The margins don't need to be high initially, but they can get the "beta testing" out of the way--I don't think Tesla will ever have a fast, instant rollout like we see with other automakers because they are so iterative.

I also think that early adopters, willing to spend a lot more money, are more tolerant to initial production hiccups that I think Tesla (at this stage) will see no matter how much preparation they do. Mass market consumers are going to be a lot less tolerant of receiving a car with a ton of issues.

Call me crazy, but I don't think a ludicrous Model 3 requires having gigafactory-like economy of scale battery cost reductions to be a viable car--just the more bare bones models will. A maybe $60-$70k car with 20% less material than the Model S (Musk's words), cheaper materials in general (no aluminum), and probably no more than 70 kwh of a battery. If they can make a base Model X for only 5k more than a Model S in today's costs, this doesn't seem at all far fetched.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Ironic, Facebook suggesting today that I share this memory from Feb 11, 2014 - it was exactly two years ago that I watched the stock hit $200 for the first time while sitting in my car.

How far we've come since

 

[jhm]

Yes, I agree here. A larger battery pack and inconel contactor are some of the easiest things to slap into a car on the assembly line. It's the amenities and features like motor driven doors and monopost seats that seem to add manufacturing configuration and calibration assembly issues. The P version is also a mainstay in showing that the electric drivetrain is just better.

Yeah, I don't have a solid grasp of exactly what features are most problematic, but anything that can get in the way of Tesla doubling production every 12 months needs to be very carefully considered.

Specifically regarding a P version, I wonder if the distinction between performance and nonperformance is really worth making. Does every model Tesla make need to treat performane as an option? Or can some models be higher performance than others? For example, the new Roadster, would in make sense to have a nonperformance version Roadster? Or is it simply that all Roadster are by definition high performance? Just thinking out loud.

 

[electracity]

There may never be a ludicrous mode on the M3. All the power electronics will be less expensive. But I think the base car will have 0-60 in under six seconds. In the normal world, this would be a fast car.