Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[hockeythug]

Jason Wheeler is killing it!

x100

 

[mejojo]

As I understand it, Julian is banned because he basically said to a forum member "if you call me a fraud to my face I'll punch you". Can we move on?

Blake Griffin got a 4 day suspension for actually punching a team employee........

 

[Joel]

Jason Wheeler is killing it!

My thoughts exactly.

 

[FluxCap]

I enjoyed Deepak's soothing voice and steady hand, but this new CFO Jason is on point, on message and fired up. Very clean, very consistent. I like him.

 

[larmor]

Upgrade MS to AP? details pls

 

[Gerasimental]

AJ up. here we go

 

[everman]

I can't wait for Adam's turn! We will be able to read along with his question if you've printed out either Q2 or Q3 transcripts.

 

[chickensevil]

While I am sure this is about to get lost in the noise, but I feel it should be mentioned that I think I came pretty close on seeing this come into happening:

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015 - Page 1619

My running thesis is that 1 of 2 options might be coming forward from these indicators:

1: They are going to get Cash Flow positive in Q4 (or pretty dang close), yes I know, they said they had some MX capex costs that would still be felt this quarter, but dumping out your finished goods inventory is likely to free up some assets that can be converted to sales early. Based on those numbers it feels like there might be around a solid 2-3 weeks of cars sitting in finished goods. If they can drop this out, that is a huge cash shot in the arm.
2: They still only hit the cash flows in Q1, however they will have done it without "cheating" the system by offloading their inventory at the same time. It is clear they are doing this for Q4 and you can't do this 2 months in a row. So here we sit with great cash numbers without having to toy with how finance numbers fall around specific dates and, in fact, would have worked against you. Thereby making a cash flow positive all the sweeter.


Or, my personal favorite, hidden choice number 3: Both quarters push a cash flow positive. This would be the ultimate bear trap, the likes unseen since Q1 2013. The stock would shoot up after the Q4 cash flows, but the bears would be screaming that they cheated and they couldn't do it again. Then along comes Q1 and they do it again, with cash flow positives even greater than Q4 since they won't have the remaining MX capex dragging them down and we still aren't in full swing on the M3. Even if the shorts wanted to double down again, by all means, 2 quarters of shock and awe would be nice.

This was back on Nov 5th. They hit that "They are going to get Cash Flow positive in Q4 (or pretty dang close)" is quite striking, and then to state for certain cash flow positive in Q1!

What I am surprised about, and am absolutely loving is the statement of non-GAAP positive EPS for 2016 and GAAP positive for Q4 2016. I really am looking forward to this year. It is disappointing that the shorts were able to use the macro to enable a price dive to the 140s, but I am certainly piling on tomorrow and will likely do a split of new shares and some longer options.

 

[The Blue Owl]

The work-in-progress inventory comprised of the parts produced for the Model X almost balances about 3400 inventory cars sold. Did I get that right? That bodes well for the ramp up.

 

[hockeythug]

Upgrade MS to AP? details pls

Not a hardware upgrade. People are wanting to upgrade to S's with AP so Tesla is actively reaching out to people with leases before they end to make it a smooth transition.

 

[ggr]

Upgrade MS to AP? details pls

Encouraging trade-in old on a new one, as the old comes off lease.

 

[30seconds]

"we did our best to suppress demand" - regarding the X

bears of course will hear that as "there is no demand for the X"

 

[Johan]

The work-in-progress inventory comprised of the parts produced for the Model X almost balances about 3400 inventory cars sold. Did I get that right? That bodes well for the ramp up.

Yes, that was my understanding and my analysis too.

 

[austinEV]

wow, interesting to hear Elon basically agreeing that the X is too feature rich and he has regrets.

 

[The Blue Owl]

Elon owns up to over-designing the X: "Tesla took this lesson to heart".

But also: the problems have been overcome.

 

[colettimj]

Like what I'm hearing from Elon on the X and what lessons they've learn to lead into a simpler 3 design. Ah, FWD and windshield not a barrier to production.

 

[austinEV]

Like what I'm hearing from Elon on the X and what lessons they've learn to lead into a simpler 3 design. Ah, FWD and windshield not a barrier to production.

That is quite the bombshell to me. No door/windshield bottlenecks?

 

[Papafox]

Let's see is reliability comments cause any upswing in after hours price

Edit: hmmm not much

 

[JRP3]

That is quite the bombshell to me. No door/windshield bottlenecks?

Let's hope that's not like the "drive train problems were solved" claims when they weren't :wink:

 

[everman]

I really appreciate the manufacturing operations and yield improvements language in this call! Jason is filling a critical expertise role in this regard!