Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[RationalOptimist]

Is Julian banned for a set period of time, or permanently? If permanent, I'll likely stop visiting this site. I value his perspective, even if sometimes quite polarized towards the Long side of the Force.

I also support Julian's return. Despite occasional sharp elbows, he's done as good a job as anyone at articulating the truly disruptive nature of Tesla. Please bring him back. This community is well capable of pulling people back from their rudest moments. We don't need an outright ban.

 

[AZbba]

Nice job. Glad I got long some 150 calls (although I sold some during the pop earlier today).

I think we will see a short squeeze tomorrow. Most people were predicting a LNKD type reaction - and shorted every share they could find. I would say 165-180 range tomorrow and 200 by Feb opex would seem to make sense. I don't think we'll get much above 200 until market conditions improve though.

I expect the call will be mostly positive. I don't see much risk to the downside.

 

[Electrifying]

I also support Julian's return. Despite occasional sharp elbows, he's done as good a job as anyone at articulating the truly disruptive nature of Tesla. Please bring him back. This community is well capable of pulling people back from their rudest moments. We don't need an outright ban.

+1 for me

 

[Svetlin]

As I understand it, Julian is banned because he basically said to a forum member "if you call me a fraud to my face I'll punch you". Can we move on?

 

[ggies07]

I also support Julian's return. Despite occasional sharp elbows, he's done as good a job as anyone at articulating the truly disruptive nature of Tesla. Please bring him back. This community is well capable of pulling people back from their rudest moments. We don't need an outright ban.

+1. One of the things I loved about this forum when I found it in 2012 were the intense details people wrote about on what the company was doing. That does not need to go away as the company grows.

 

[Hogfighter]

If the stock doesn't pop tomorrow, I declare that I officially have no idea how markets work in the short term.

 

[PaulRocket]

Did I misunderstand or should Teslas Earnings call have already started?

 

[ludicrousspeed]

Did I misunderstand or should Teslas Earnings call have already started?

Should start in the next 5-10 minutes. Always about an hour after the letter is released.

 

[madodel]

Throwing darts at a board and picking a price floor is not a voice of reason. I also reported your post.

All the shorts and shills want is more doom and gloom. So they are upset about good news.

 

[FredTMC]

I'd like analyst to ask if Q1 FCF+

 

[Hogfighter]

I'd like analyst to ask if Q1 FCF+

Me 2

 

[gene]

Call is on.

 

[hockeythug]

Wow. On time?

 

[hershey101]

WTF it's on time.. So un TSLA like!

 

[Nomad]

Great results! (haven't read the PDF yet)

One comment is that if they meet that amazing guidance for Model S+X deliveries, the window of opportunity for Model 3 to be federally discounted by $7,500 at the end of 2017 will be slim-to-nothing.

And... hello to the 464 accounts browsing this thread! A record, I think...

Keep in mind that buyers are still eligible for the full $7,500 credit during the first full quarter after the quarter in which the 200,000th vehicle is sold domestically. Approximately 40% to 60% of the global sales are North American, with largely negligible amounts sold in Canada. With that in mind, I fully expect the full tax credit to be available to Tesla buyers who take delivery through Q1 2018. If US sales trend more toward 40% of global rather 60%, I wouldn't be surprised to see it available through Q2 or Q3 2018.

 

[everman]

Few notes before we get started...

I vote for Julian's return. One of the most valuable contributors.
I held long and strong, and congrats to everyone else who had the iron stomach.

BOO YAH!

Here we go for the call...

 

[Gtoffo]

A few quick thoughts before CC.

The market has no patience for Tesla's promises at the moment (correctly so IMHO....they have overpromised and under delivered at every turn).

Unfortunately we know that Tesla's management works by pushing to the limit it's employees with aggressive goals. Set demanding goals..if you miss you will still have achieved the extraordinary (>50% growth last year).

I think this pullback might have taught TSLA investors a valuable lesson. We will model the future taking into account Elon's management style and discounting future goals. This is good, prudent, and healthy.

The biggest news out of this letter is obviously the cash flow reiteration (they were a bit vague about Q1 cash flow...will they might not be able to make straight away? Probably due to Model X quality). So far nobody believed Elon's cash flow promise as it was too far off in the future. At this point though (being halfway through the quarter) I think they have a good idea of the situation and the figures are believable.

Let's see what comes out of this CC.

EDIT: elon just said they will be cash flow positive since NEXT MONTH. Nice!

 

[Zaxxon]

Elon exercised a bunch more options this week. [Edit to say--to acquire shares, of course.]

 

[everman]

Jason Wheeler is killing it!

 

[hershey101]

Ok I love Mr. Google CFO He is very very good.. This call is on point and designed as a rebuttle to the shorts and sellers... I think they saw the institutional selling the past month... It's definitely looking like $180 is in the games this week/early next week.