I love that
@Fallenone is explicit in saying what he considers on time. Delivering a few hunderd model 3's in the second half of 2017 is technically still 'on time' but that is simply not enough. My personal threshold for on time : more Model 3 deliveries than Model S or X in Q4.
Here is also the timeline I am watching for in 2017.
* December 2016 : full details on the new supercharging pricing structure for Model 3 (and new S/X as well if different)
* Last day of 2016 : AP2.0 activates and is at parity with AP1.0, minor regressions
* January 2017 : explicit confirmation that Gigafactory is producing new cells at substantial levels (run rate >1GWh per jaar)
* February 2017 : FY2016 report showing Q4 capex on factory build out as guided in their last quarterly report
* Q1 2017 : occasional sightings of a Model 3 driving in regular traffic
* March 2017 : full reveal event for the Model 3. Showing cars that are exactly what production is going to be, of course fully driveable
* Last day of Q1 2017 : AP2.0 is now at full parity with AP1.0, no regressions at all
* April 2017 : first products ship to customers with gigafactory produced cells
* Q2 2017 : frequent sightings of a Model 3 driving in regular traffic/supercharging
* Last day of Q2 2017 : AP2.0 is now substantially better than AP1.0
* June 2017 : Model 3 configurator open for first group (employees&Model S/X owners) includes pricing etc
* August 2017 : first deliveries to employees
* October 2017 : first deliveries to non-employees
* December 2017 : A Model X drives itself over a substantial distance in real traffic with a driver only present because of regulation. Drive event is live streamed to show it isn't scripted (ok that is a dream, I'll accept a sped up video with honky tonk music after the fact)
* Q4 2017 : > 30k deliveries of Model 3
If they hit that last goal, they are on time. Otherwise they are not. The points before I think are reasonable checkpoints they can't afford to miss by too much without making the end goal impossible.