larmor
Active Member
Did gm get a bailout? If so what was gm market cap prior? And have they paid US (ie us tax payers) back?
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FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Deliveries above 30k for Q3?!
What?!
I love you man, but no way in a million years...
21-22k is realistic. 25k would be stretch
IF it's over 30k, I'll shave my head and post it here on this thread AND send you a $200 check for dinner at a nice restaurant of your choice
Good luck!
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
Tesla trading at the same price it did back in Feb of 2014. I find it hard to believe an excellent delivery number will not boost the stock price by at least 15%. The closer we get to Model 3 production.....
will that be over the screams of the shorts pulling their hair out with both hands, in a great miasma of blubbering
{i dont think 30K either and am in the 21-23k camp}
I'm holding you to that! I'll do the same if it's below 25k!
Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
I can't believe anyone would try to predict 2035 with certainty.
Tesla’s Model 3 could mash brakes on gas demand
As a reference the US consumes about 9M barrels a day on Gasoline. 300,000 barrels is 3%.
Tesla’s Model 3 could mash brakes on gas demand
As a reference the US consumes about 9M barrels a day on Gasoline. 300,000 barrels is 3%.
doggusfluffy
Closed
Fred will shave his head and I will retire!
To reach 30k they would have to deliver EVERY vehicle they produced in the quarter and completely empty the pipeline.
I will give you credit. When you dream you dream big.
My guess is you are more likely to shave your head then Fred.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
What possible reason can you have for believing that? Reasoning by analogy rather than first principles?
We know that their pack cost will be under $114 per kWh. In addition to the pack much does it cost to build an EV?
Please no!
Accelerating the M3 caused enough of a hit to the SP! Working on two cars at the same time would be bad enough. But the 3 and the Y. With or without FWD's? With would be a disaster for the SP, and without would probably be bad as well.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Ameliorate
Member
Haha this is great, except Fred will be bald and swimming in money, wheras tander may be bald and homeless.
(Okay I'm sure <25k won't have that effect on your wealth) I think you'll both get to keep your hair for another day!
Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
You guys have guts but now we have a deadband between 25-30K where nobody's head gets shaved!!
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Yeah... I noticed that. So...
I AM improving my bet!!! I'll fill the gap!
I WILL shave my head and send Tanner a check for $200 if Q3 deliveries are over 25k! BOOM! Drop mic and walk off...
Thanks Tanner. I'd LOVE to lose this bet!
Okay I'm at risk of losing my hair so maybe you guys can tell me where my logic is failing. In the last conf call they guided for 2.2k production a week by end of q3, they finished q2 at about 2k. With 13 weeks that puts the low end at 26k and the high end at maybe 27.5k? I think it's fair to assume that since they had a huge push for deliveries they got the in transit % back toward q4. It seems like this is pretty much coming down to what % in transits is reasonable?
This is getting way too fun!
I guess the good thing is regardless of who wins Tesla is going to have it's best quarter ever.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
In full disclosure, are either of you already bald, or losing hair?
Thanks for digging that up. I really gotta read Electrek more often. Do note that Elon's estimate of 25% GM was after full production of 500,000 vehicles which he estimates by the end of the decade. So maybe by 2021, or five years from now, it'll get there. Unless things change, like they realize they need to make 1,000,000 cars a year.
If they do what they've done at all other product launches, ship highly optioned cars first, that will help mitigate early low margin numbers.
I suspect the market really isn't going to care too much about the margins, they will be much more focused on demand and ability to deliver quickly. Many people think 500,000 Model 3s in a year is a pie in the sky demand figure. If that number turns out to be accurate, margins won't matter. I keep going back to Amazon as an example. They had near zero margins for many, many years, all while gobbling up market share, raising equity, and turning themselves into a retail monopoly (not yet, but you can see a path there) AND creating whole new industries out of thin air (they dominate in the huge cloud processing space, and watch out for Twitch).
Tesla is very similar. Tesla Energy is poised to dominate in storage - we are finally seeing real progress here with the latest two Powerpack installations, and the Gigafactory isn't even producing yet. And obviously Elon has a plan for SolarCity.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
I'm not bald. I'll look crazy stupid with a shaved head. I hope to show you!
DaveT AiMc and some others have met me in person...
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