Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[AlMc]

I'm not bald. I'll look crazy stupid with a shaved head. I hope to show you!

DaveT AiMc and some others have met me in person...

I can attest to the vailidity of all these statements.

Fred who?

 

[TSLAopt]

Que Ball will be enough embarrassment for me... thanks

Again, I'm very confident deliveries will be less than 25k. Sorry to rain on the optimist parade but 25k+ is a stretch.

Over the past couple years, I've been too optimistic and so was tesla guidance time and time again. I'm more balanced now.

I agree here...its been so long I can't remember the last time in this TMC site that we weren't way over projecting what the actual deliveries were...maybe Jan 2014 when Jerome announced with that infamous "reckless growth" comment.

After that, every single quarter we all get hyped up on here and then are let down when the deliveries are reported. For that reason I am dialing down my own optimistic projections to only be 20-21k cars delivered this quarter

Stock will not move materially IMO, or could go down temporarily.

 

[NigelM]

Okay I'm at risk of losing my hair so maybe you guys can tell me where my logic is failing. In the last conf call they guided for 2.2k production a week by end of q3, they finished q2 at about 2k. With 13 weeks that puts the low end at 26k and the high end at maybe 27.5k? I think it's fair to assume that since they had a huge push for deliveries they got the in transit % back toward q4. It seems like this is pretty much coming down to what % in transits is reasonable?

You're mistaking production capacity for demand/deliveries. X has mostly been slower than expected since launch, up till recently there weren't even cars in all the stores. Tesla has been pulling demand levers like crazy so they were obviously pushing under-utilized capacity. Finally, there will be cars in transit even if the # is reduced from the end of last quarter.

You'll lose your hair, hopefully not your shirt.

 

[trentxintong]

Couple of thoughts: you seem to be very analytical and numbers oriented. If you play short term game, it doesn't matter, but if you're trying to play short for the long-term, you're at distinct disadvantage with this approach. This is not steady state company, it's startup, just a huge startup. Startups are this whirlwind of activities, growth, and pivot all at the same time, and they're unpredictable. You can't model them properly, and their value is based on where they'll be in 5 or 10 years. Which no one can predict with high level of accuracy.

I said once and still believe it, that Elon runs Tesla in the state of controlled chaos, where delivery of no particular goal is assured, but overall output is very high. Hence Tesla fails on short term predictions, but, have you looked at their growth trajectory last 3-4 years? It's stellar.

When deciding to invest in TSLA or not at first, I looked at the history of the company. I spent hundreds of hours reading up on them. If you check them carefully, you will see what they've gone through, to be where they are, is already amazing; they've climbed supposedly insurmountably obstacles. I've had benefit of working in a successful startup, and I know what it is when amazing team comes together - it's unstoppable. Well, I think that's Tesla team now, and that gives me confidence to keep my money there.

And if we boil down this to personality, I believe there are some people that are such forces of nature, they are simply unstoppable. You know, from history: Gingis-Khan, Steve Jobs, Elon Musk...
These people are worth betting on. Now, I happen to think that Elon has already overtaken Jobs in most metrics, except financial, but that will not increase my credibility with you. But c'mon, Pixar, phone and tablet, vs Paypal, cars and rockets? I know what my 5-year old will vote

You sir are a very intelligent investor. Need to focus on long term for TSLA, I enjoyed reading most of your posts !

 

[Vitold]

1) It did.
2) On Nov 25,2008 GM had a market cap of $1.8B
3) General Motors has paid over $200B in current dollars in US Federal Taxes since its incorporation vs a 2009 bailout that cost US taxpayers $11B.

Taxpayers' loss on GM bailout gets bigger

 

[ggr]

1) It did.
2) On Nov 25,2008 GM had a market cap of $1.8B
3) General Motors has paid over $200B in current dollars in US Federal Taxes since its incorporation vs a 2009 bailout that cost US taxpayers $11B.

If GM had not been bailed out in 2008, it's true that the tax revenue would never have gone to the government, because it wouldn't have existed. But on the other hand, if GM had not needed to be bailed out, it would presumably still have made money and payed tax. So I don't think your (3) should really count as "paying back".

 

[stealthology]

I think that the 5k at the end of Q2 was mostly on boats to Europe and Asia. Just by booking every car produced in September to North America and the last couple of weeks to Fremont they should be able to gain about 3k.

One reason for optimism is all of the "not supposed to be discounted new cars". They were being produced.

What % of Euro cars arrive by plane/boat? I was under the impression all Euro deliveries were assembled in Europe only with parts flown in by plane.

 

[geneclean55]

I think that the 5k at the end of Q2 was mostly on boats to Europe and Asia. Just by booking every car produced in September to North America and the last couple of weeks to Fremont they should be able to gain about 3k.

One reason for optimism is all of the "not supposed to be discounted new cars". They were being produced.

Looking at the Model S tracker spreadsheet, it looks like the majority made in the last 10 days were delivered to the West coast. However, there were some made during that time-frame destined for Europe(particularly the last 5-7 days). The last 'production complete' date that I see for delivery to CA by end of quarter was 9/25. I assume many of the cars that got built since Monday were not delivered this quarter. So what is that ...maybe 1500 or so built since Monday that can't be added to the Q3 tally?

 

[Tenable]

I'm holding you to that! I'll do the same if it's below 25k!

We'll hold you to it! But I'll be damned if I don't hope you're right.

 

[Tenable]

Just to get in on the action. If we deliver over 27k I'll shave my head and post a video as well.

 

[dmckinstry]

So who else is going to join FredTMC in shaving their head if deliveries are over 25k?

I will, but I shave my head with barber shears every three months anyway. But for over 25k, I'll let a barber do it with a razor.

 

[TMSE]

Some California lawmakers nitpicking on using Autopilot name: California’s proposed rules for driverless vehicles take aim at Tesla

Expect atleast two articles on this on Seeking Alphalpha early Monday morning right before market open.

 

[sub]

I would get in on the head shaving but I already keep my head shaved, would have to go to a straight razor to get it shorter. I have an impeccable hair line in case anyone was wondering

However, I hate to see Fred doing all the heavy lifting so If we fall between 25-30k ill volunteer to shave vgrinshpun's head. Someone has to take one for the team.

 

[CatB]

Expect at least two articles on this on Seeking Alphalpha early Monday morning right before market open.

I love it when SA puts a sucker sale price on TSLA right after payday when I can splurge a little more sweetly

 

[Lump]

I propose losers shave their heads live during DaveT's Google Hangout.

 

[MitchJi]

If GM had not been bailed out in 2008, it's true that the tax revenue would never have gone to the government, because it wouldn't have existed. But on the other hand, if GM had not needed to be bailed out, it would presumably still have made money and payed tax. So I don't think your (3) should really count as "paying back".

What about the environmental costs of all the gas guzzlers GM has produced?

What about the environmental savings if the Fed had given the 11B to Tesla instead of GM?

 

[vgrinshpun]

I would get in on the head shaving but I already keep my head shaved, would have to go to a straight razor to get it shorter. I have an impeccable hair line in case anyone was wondering

However, I hate to see Fred doing all the heavy lifting so If we fall between 25-30k ill volunteer to shave vgrinshpun's head. Someone has to take one for the team.

Would not be as valuable, as most of it is bald, and was that way for quite some time now.

 

[AlMc]

I propose losers shave their heads live during DaveT's Google Hangout.

Absolutely best idea to confirm the 'shaving'.

 

[Tenable]

Absolutely best idea to confirm the 'shaving'.

Perhaps you'd like to join in the action AIMc? ;-)

 

[AlMc]

Perhaps you'd like to join in the action AIMc? ;-)

Remember, I am the self described 'realistic bull'. Realistic Bulls like their hair and only place bets via call and put options. We are very boring.

Fred TMC is out 'champion' in this duel.

Finally, Mrs. AlMc might get carried away with that razor