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So who else is going to join FredTMC in shaving their head if deliveries are over 25k?
I can attest to the vailidity of all these statements.
Full hair, and also look pretty weird without it. To be honest I'll probably chicken out if I win, but I'll compensate and donate to the charity of Fred's choice.
Edit: I will also run naked through the quad with my green hat.
A bet is a bet my friend!! : )
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If you don't shave then you shouldn't be allowed to post for 6 months
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
The reason nobody believes that is that we've been hearing similar statements since the MX launch and they haven't happened (yet). I believe that this time will be different. I think they've finally got a handle on the X production. I think 26k production, plus over 5k from Q2 plus loaners and demo's minus about 1-2k for current production not delivered is reasonable.
I just talked myself into about 31k deliveries
.I also think that our expectations for the SP have been dampened all of the justified and unjustified disappointments. I don't know what's going to happen, but I think if the results are good the SP will do better than the consensus on this forum.
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With 13 weeks @ 2100 average, less cars in transit, and selling loaners and demos, I find it hard to believer it would be significantly less than 30000. With Q4 having 2 weeks factory shutdown and a pipeline to refill, it would be difficult to achieve 50K in H2 if Q3 would end up to be less than25K.
Finished goods inventory was $755 million at the end of Q3. It had been closer to around $550 million. I'm assuming they pushed it down even further, closer to Q4 last year, which is $477 million. So about $275 million dollars worth of inventory, so that's 2,900 cars.
It would be aggressive, but thinking that they produced an average of 2,000 per week, 12 production weeks, is 24,000 produced during that time. The overhang then at the end of Q3 matches the overhang at the end of Q4 2015, so you can then count all of the production as delivery. That's then 26,900 at the upper range. Can it be higher? Yes. Likely? No.
At 1,900 a week, 2,500 additional pushed in from inventory, that's 25,300.
I guessed in the upper 23,000's because I didn't want to jinx stuff, and because that is likely the point of highest pain... almost there, but not quite.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
I think that the 5k at the end of Q2 was mostly on boats to Europe and Asia. Just by booking every car produced in September to North America and the last couple of weeks to Fremont they should be able to gain about 3k.
One reason for optimism is all of the "not supposed to be discounted new cars". They were being produced.
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FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Que Ball will be enough embarrassment for me... thanks
Again, I'm very confident deliveries will be less than 25k. Sorry to rain on the optimist parade but 25k+ is a stretch.
Over the past couple years, I've been too optimistic and so was tesla guidance time and time again. I'm more balanced now.
3Victoria
Active Member
Well, the average guesstimate from the guess-thread is 24899 at the moment, so you may be safe.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
1) It did.
2) On Nov 25,2008 GM had a market cap of $1.8B
3) General Motors has paid over $200B in current dollars in US Federal Taxes since its incorporation vs a 2009 bailout that cost US taxpayers $11B.
Whoops, yeah I meant to say lose. But I dunno, I guess head shaving is in right now, it'd save time on haircuts!That´s fine. Just make sure that you shave when you lose
Sorry, I'm confused. Doesn't the 5k in transit from last quarter get added to whatever they made and sold this quarter?
andrewt3000
Member
Regarding deliveries... Elon Musk said it will be the best quarter ever. He has historically been very transparent about the stock price... Tsunami of hurt. He even mentioned once when he thought it was overvalued. I have loaded back up with Tesla stock.
Regarding thread about M3 profitability... I agree with MitchJI, Tesla is fundamentally a play on falling battery prices. So I think there is a good chance that it will be very profitable.
The factory automation is a widcard. It could provide even more upside. But I think it's speculative. I am a programmer and I have been studying deep learning. It's interesting that OpenAI, Elon's non-profit AI startup is working on household chore robot, sorta like rosie from the Jetson's. It is a similar problem to factory automation for less precise tasks like installing interior. This technology to completely automate factories is in the research phase now but it is coming. That could be huge with regards to Model 3 profitability. Check out this google brain research on robotic grasping. I suspect this is the type of stuff they are doing at Tesla with regards to factory automation.
Google Brain Robotics Data
the biggest wildcard with potential downside seems to me to be the sales process. SG&A is 20% of revenue atm. I am just not sure how scalable the process is.... In my mind the pre-orders for M3 were as much validation of the stores and their scalability as it was for the design and price of the M3... But It's still uncertain and an area where They are doing a lot of experiments... referral programs, popup stores, even the ridesharing...
Regarding thread about M3 profitability... I agree with MitchJI, Tesla is fundamentally a play on falling battery prices. So I think there is a good chance that it will be very profitable.
The factory automation is a widcard. It could provide even more upside. But I think it's speculative. I am a programmer and I have been studying deep learning. It's interesting that OpenAI, Elon's non-profit AI startup is working on household chore robot, sorta like rosie from the Jetson's. It is a similar problem to factory automation for less precise tasks like installing interior. This technology to completely automate factories is in the research phase now but it is coming. That could be huge with regards to Model 3 profitability. Check out this google brain research on robotic grasping. I suspect this is the type of stuff they are doing at Tesla with regards to factory automation.
Google Brain Robotics Data
the biggest wildcard with potential downside seems to me to be the sales process. SG&A is 20% of revenue atm. I am just not sure how scalable the process is.... In my mind the pre-orders for M3 were as much validation of the stores and their scalability as it was for the design and price of the M3... But It's still uncertain and an area where They are doing a lot of experiments... referral programs, popup stores, even the ridesharing...
andrewt3000
Member
presumably that 5k will be delivered, but there will be new cars in the pipeline at the end of the quarter... probably less though.. maybe 3 or 4k.
I haven't checked all posts today as my wife is calling for lunch, so this may be a repeat. Sorry if it is.
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CALGARYARSENAL
Member
I get excited thinking about the day I can start adding again to my Tesla position. I do not add to losing trades. When the stock begins to move in my favour, I will begin adding on a regular basis.
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