Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[drinkerofkoolaid]

CARB recently rejected a fix for the VW Group 3.0L diesel. This isn't news.

This has the BLUE DEF diesel after treatment equipment so it should be fixable.

What is unknown is the cost in terms of performance and MPG after the software is fixed and approved by CARB.

You can't fix a problem that was there by design. What sane person would accept a "fix" instead of a refund + extra cash for being cheated?

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

BMW isn't the only one. Porsche is paying for Tesla ads too!

"Porsche is taking on Tesla."
"The entire underbody houses the battery, distributing the weight equally…" Gee, why didn't Tesla think of that???
Porsche is an awesome car company. But they have some catching up to do. And no sign whatsoever how long their wait is.

A lot to pay attention to in the EV world these days. Huge, disruptive paradigm shift of epic proportions underway. I can't wait to see what each new day brings...

Here’s the stunning electric car Porsche is making to take on Tesla

On second look; not actually a Porsche ad, but a Tech Insider story video...

. We could see the Mission E on the roads as early as 2020.

LOL. As early as 2020? In other words, 5,000- 10,000 might be produced in 2020? By 2020, Tesla will be producing 1 million vehicles annually.

 

[RobStark]

You can't fix a problem that was there by design. What sane person would accept a "fix" instead of a refund + extra cash for being cheated?

In this instance the problem was software. Software can be fixed. More DEF more of the time.

There are many people that want to keep their VW Group diesels, many without any fix to them.

Call them insane if you wish.

But many bought for performance, long range, and good fuel economy. And diesel engines tend to last 2x plus as long as gasoline engines.

Many did not buy because low emissions. Many VW diesel owners absolutely don't care about NOx emissions.

 

[Dwdnjck]

It sounded kind of muffled on the call, but I thought I heard 2k a week for 3Q and a goal of 3k a week for 4Q with a week or

BMW isn't the only one. Porsche is paying for Tesla ads too!

"Porsche is taking on Tesla."
"The entire underbody houses the battery, distributing the weight equally…" Gee, why didn't Tesla think of that???
Porsche is an awesome car company. But they have some catching up to do. And no sign whatsoever how long their wait is.

A lot to pay attention to in the EV world these days. Huge, disruptive paradigm shift of epic proportions underway. I can't wait to see what each new day brings...

Here’s the stunning electric car Porsche is making to take on Tesla

On second look; not actually a Porsche ad, but a Tech Insider story video...

Porsche will be truly committed to electric cars when they stop making gas ones. You actually think that will happen before it's too late?

 

[FANGO]

Speaking of waiting...

 

[Fallenone]

Cost of installing of the TE products is not included in the $470/kWh list price shown on their website, so whatever it is, it will not have any effect on the GM. The $470/kWh includes only batteries, so the pricing and GM on inverters, does not factor in my calculation as well. The 50% GM on TE that was included in my calculation stands given the published data.

Regarding the stores, there will be no need to have 441 stores until the very end of 2017 when Model 3 will start shipping in quantities and a sizable dent is made in the quantity of reservations on the books (backlog), so expansion of stores in conjunction with Model 3 ramp will have zero effect on Q1, Q2, Q3 and most (if any) of Q4 2017. On top of this expansion in stores does not mean proportional increase of the SG&A. From 215 in March Tesla grew their store presence to 260 now, a 20% increase, with SG&A expenses, as addressed by Jason Wheeler during the ER call, and shown in the shareholder's letter financial summary, staying flat.

Regarding the CapEx, as was addressed before, absolute majority of them are included in COGS, not OpEx, so will not affect the GM.

I do not believe that your concern about Tesla not being non-GAAP profitable in 2017 is valid. Tesla is very likely to bring about $1B of non-GAAP profit in 2017, as shown in my napkin math example.

The packs in cars has a $190/kWh cost doesn't mean TE has that cost too. They are now being built in GF and you need to take the whole depreciation of GF into the TE's COGS. In Q4 2015 letter (or Q1 2016) they said TE has positive GM, if it was 50%, they would most likely brag about it. I was puzzled by that first. But then considering the whole GF's depreciation caused COGS to TE, that's understandable. Also, Telsa is not just giving customers battery packs and calls it a day. The inverter and installation is in the whole deal and also carry cost. Would these be 50%?

Tesla can't just magically open ~200 stores in one quarter. Expansion needs planning and people to do the work. The reason why SG&A didn't increase that much, of course Jason was watching it, but also the expansion was relatively slow until mid to late Q2.

I never said they won't be profitable non-GAAP in 2017. Just don't think they can make a net $1B in non-GAAP profit. $500M would put a big smile on my face.

 

[TMSE]

The packs in cars has a $190/kWh cost doesn't mean TE has that cost too. They are now being built in GF and you need to take the whole depreciation of GF into the TE's COGS. In Q4 2015 letter (or Q1 2016) they said TE has positive GM, if it was 50%, they would most likely brag about it. I was puzzled by that first. But then considering the whole GF's depreciation caused COGS to TE, that's understandable. Also, Telsa is not just giving customers battery packs and calls it a day. The inverter and installation is in the whole deal and also carry cost. Would these be 50%?

Tesla can't just magically open ~200 stores in one quarter. Expansion needs planning and people to do the work. The reason why SG&A didn't increase that much, of course Jason was watching it, but also the expansion was relatively slow until mid to late Q2.

I never said they won't be profitable non-GAAP in 2017. Just don't think they can make a net $1B in non-GAAP profit. $500M would put a big smile on my face.

I would actually be worried if Tesla makes too much GAAP or Non-GAAP profit because it is a clear sign of Mgmt not seeing much growth ahead. And, don't be surprised if stock falls as a result.

The ideal goldilocks situation most institutional investors looking for is rapid growth (50%/yr is good) at break even or near zero profits. In this Amazonisque situation, all the cash flow is plowed back into growth of the company, all the while having little or no tax burden. I hope this lasts until atleast 2020.

 

[doggusfluffy]

Another AI startup wants to replace hedge funds

“This is not algorithmic trading,” he said. “This is literally replication of an analyst.”

Emma will start trading stocks from pharma giant GSK and Tesla along with U.S. Treasury bonds. Previously, Emma went head-to-head with financial news writers, testing its ability to replace the profession of yours truly.

“How do you have an AI that — for lack of a better word —can ‘think’ on the input?” he asked.

 

[Matias]

I mean, you have the biggest factory in the world (by footprint)

To my understanding, factory is not the biggest at the moment. It will be the biggest when it is ready. Now they have built only small part of it.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Maybe this was one of the "demand levers he could pull" Elon was talking about: Provoking other car companies to pay for Tesla advertising.

Seriously though, I wouldn't be surprised if BMW pulled these ads. Just take a quick glance at the YouTube comments... This has blown up in their face pretty bad.

 

[Tslynk67]

Design Studio for a new X now indicating "Available Late 2016" while Model S still says September. Good sign on demand front?

"Early 2017 delivery" here in Europe!

 

[TMSE]

"Early 2017 delivery" here in Europe!

2017 delivery is for 5 seater. If you opt for to 6 or 7 seaters, you will get in late October.

 

[Tslynk67]

2017 delivery is for 5 seater. If you opt for to 6 or 7 seaters, you will get in late October.

Oh yes, I didn't spot that. I suppose this means that they don't plan to retool the assembly-line for 5-seaters until Q4...?

 

[schonelucht]

For everyone who is looking at the delivery times. Click through to the second page (after ordering). There is a combobox there to specify earliest possible delivery. The two dates mentioned don't always correspond but it is generally accepted from @vgrinshpun, who has done most research on this, that the latter is the 'real' earliest estimated delivery date.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Doug Kass is on Twitter having a heyday with the "news" from Friday night. Suggests Tesla's filing is material to the stock and in some way different to what any other company does. This guy belongs on the wall of shame just like Mark Speigel. He is so confident the stock gets punished today. I typically don't care about day to day fluctuations but I would love to see this pompous jerk eat crow today.

 

[MartinAustin]

Tesla Motors discloses $1.1 billion in third-quarter cash needs

 

[Lessmog]

Tesla Motors discloses $1.1 billion in third-quarter cash needs

From 2Q shareholder letter -- "Despite the disciplined pace of capital spending in the first half of this year, we still expect to invest about $2.25 billion in capital expenditures in 2016, in support of our accelerated production plan for Model 3."

Late Fri I saw this article Tesla Motors discloses $1.1 billion in third-quarter cash needs regarding 1.1B for 3Q - so isn't that in line with what was already mentioned on call? This and some recent articles/comments regard GG spending seem to indicate that Mgmt is disclosing like new costs - that too almost 1 week after shareholder meeting?

Looks like recycling the same content?

 

[mutle]

Just catching up on this thread, so it's possible someone already responded to this:

Do a google search on "iPhone assembly process" and watch the latest videos. It's pathetic. The most glamorous electronic device this day, a tiny device (relative to a car) has so much manual intervention that it is really shocking.

They actually showed this recently:

I'm sure if you can build a robot to disassemble iPhones, building them is possible too.

I agree with everything else in your post.

 

[aznt1217]

I would actually be worried if Tesla makes too much GAAP or Non-GAAP profit because it is a clear sign of Mgmt not seeing much growth ahead. And, don't be surprised if stock falls as a result.

The ideal goldilocks situation most institutional investors looking for is rapid growth (50%/yr is good) at break even or near zero profits. In this Amazonisque situation, all the cash flow is plowed back into growth of the company, all the while having little or no tax burden. I hope this lasts until atleast 2020.

I wouldn't mind it for 1 quarter, just to shut haters up, but then again their minds will never be changed

 

[SBenson]

Just catching up on this thread, so it's possible someone already responded to this:



They actually showed this recently:

I'm sure if you can build a robot to disassemble iPhones, building them is possible too.

I agree with everything else in your post.

Something is a miss here. Check the actual factory video in this link (the one you posted is a marketing video):

Where iPhone 6S is made. 70% of iPhone Production Now Comes From Foxconn’s Zhengzhou Plant

or this video

Only recently it appears that they is a push to use more robots, published in July 2014

Foxconn prepares to replace workers with robots in iPhone 6 assembly process

Foxconn is preparing to enhance its assembly process with a new line of robots, the CEO of the iPhone manufacturer’s parent company said during a shareholder meeting. According to the executive, Apple will be the first company to reap the benefits of the new process, likely indicating that the iPhone 6 will be the first phone to be produced by the new machines.

Each of the planned 10,000 robots will cost the company between $20,000 and $25,000, and will be capable of churning out 300,000 smartphones on average. The machines, which are said to be in the final testing stages now, won’t be available for sale to other companies, according to CEO Terry Gou, as Foxconn will likely not have enough to meet its own needs.

Foxconn recently went on a hiring spree in preparation for the upcoming Apple smartphone, reportedly hiring as many as 100,000 new workers. There’s no word yet on how (or if) the decision to implement a mechanical solution on the assembly line will affect those jobs.