Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[esk8mw]

Consensus Analyst Estimates for Q3

non-gaap Revenue
pre-q2-er: $2.4Bil
post-q2-er (now): $2.3 Bil

non-gaap EPS
pre-q2-er: $0.38
post-q2-er (now): $0.12


Consensus Analyst Estimates for Q4

non-gaap Revenue
pre-q2-er: $2.77 Bil
post-q2-er (now): $2.77 Bil

non-gaap EPS
pre-q2-er: $0.94
post-q2-er (now): $0.65

Ha, what is it with analysts always predicting a non-GAAP profit? I'd love to see what they are doing wrong in their spreadsheets. Anywhere, here's my initial Q3 estimates (note I was closer than the analysts for Q2 but still way off, after getting deliveries numbers-which I initially guessed way too high on):

Rev: $2.40 billion
EPS: $(0.15)

These estimates are worth exactly what you paid for it.

 

[Papafox]

As you see above the margin of error for Q3 to produce a positive eps is quite very low.

For context, Q2 non-gaap eps consensus was -0.60 but Tesla delivered -1.06 (a negative 77% surprise). So whether Q3 will be positive or not is quite very uncertain.

When you say "positive", do you mean positive EPS or do you mean have a "positive" effect on SP? Personally, I think a loss of 15 cents/share in Q3 on 23,000 vehicles delivered would have a decidedly positive effect upon SP, since the trend is so unmistakably upward.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

it's better than a non-hybrid, especially since it is a plug-in hybrid, but

Whoa whoa whoa... you didn't see what I saw at 0:18 seconds?
FINE PRINT...

"Charging Optional"

Both ads.

 

[srini]

Doug Kass is on Twitter having a heyday with the "news" from Friday night. Suggests Tesla's filing is material to the stock and in some way different to what any other company does. This guy belongs on the wall of shame just like Mark Speigel. He is so confident the stock gets punished today. I typically don't care about day to day fluctuations but I would love to see this pompous jerk eat crow today.

Someone did eat a crow today, but not him.

Nice chart again today, someone is out there buying the early dip. Looks like slowly moving up to HOD again.

Holding strong after hours.

Also, on the 330e, I'd love to see the environmental impact of these "exotic" hybrid vehicles that use specialized parts, and have the environmental impact of the battery + the gasoline engine. Getting this vehicle serviced, assuming it is ever produced, will be a nightmare.

330e is a great car!!! Solid review.

 

[brian45011]

Elon said CAPEX at least twice, and at least once Jason agreed with him. They were both mistaken?

IMO Tesla is planning to start buying, designing and modifying production line equipment, in Q3 and Q4. How much longer can they wait?

But either way I'd like opinions on how that financial projection effects the SP.

CapEx does not affect the operating (income) statement until the asset is placed in service, and only then does it start showing up as depreciation and amortization expense as part of COGS and OpEx. Unless the new capital assets they are spending on can be also used for S & X production, why place the new assets in service six months to a year before they can start making revenue-generating products?

If Elon and Jason really meant Capex, the logical inference would seem to be they don't understand the financial terms they are using, and I doubt that.

 

[Drivin]

It sounds like they have finally solved the MX production issues. I think that they will probably hit their goal of >2k cars per week. If they miss this IMO that would be really bad news.

According to Tesla, they reached the goal of 2k/week almost 2 months ago.

Tesla confirms achieving a production rate of 2,000 cars/week and releases new details about its production

The article states that sources stated that they have done "well over" that number also.

That means that the 50k number for the last half of the year will be a slam dunk with 2 weeks to spare even if they don't do more than what they did 2 months ago.

 

[TMSE]

According to Tesla, they reached the goal of 2k/week almost 2 months ago.

Tesla confirms achieving a production rate of 2,000 cars/week and releases new details about its production

The article states that sources stated that they have done "well over" that number also.

That means that the 50k number for the last half of the year will be a slam dunk with 2 weeks to spare even if they don't do more than what they did 2 months ago.

PS: They have about 2 weeks holiday towards the end of the year.

 

[SBenson]

When you say "positive", do you mean positive EPS or do you mean have a "positive" effect on SP? Personally, I think a loss of 15 cents/share in Q3 on 23,000 vehicles delivered would have a decidedly positive effect upon SP, since the trend is so unmistakably upward.

I was referring to positive EPS.

However, I think for SP to have a big spike up, a la may 2013 short squeeze, I de believe a positive EPS is needed. I am looking forward to such a spike.

With continued negative EPS, SP may continue to trend up but very unlikely it will get a big spike up (baring external reasons like share recalls or something).

In any case I am becoming less and less optimistic that Q3 ER will deliver the goods. I'm resetting my expectations to Q4 ER. A mere 6 month wait... sigh...

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

In this instance the problem was software. Software can be fixed. More DEF more of the time.

There are many people that want to keep their VW Group diesels, many without any fix to them.

Call them insane if you wish.

But many bought for performance, long range, and good fuel economy. And diesel engines tend to last 2x plus as long as gasoline engines.

Many did not buy because low emissions. Many VW diesel owners absolutely don't care about NOx emissions.

Even if most people don't care about the emissions scandal, I have a hard time believing a lot of people would turn down the opportunity to get a full refund + some for a used vehicle that would otherwise be worth a fraction of what was originally paid.

If I owned a vehicle that qualified, I'd demand the refund because of a complete loss of confidence in VW.

1) I would feel cheated.
2) I would feel angry about being lied to.
3) I would never want to buy another VW vehicle again.

Why would anyone trust VW after this mess?

 

[Drivin]

PS: They have about 2 weeks holiday towards the end of the year.

Do they shut down production and delivery during those two weeks?
I thought last year they were very busy during December.
If they delivered over 3600 cars in only 2 weeks of December due to the 2 weeks of holiday, that would be really impressive.

Their January 2016 S sales were higher than their April 2016 S sales, so seems they had enough production in December to carry through on S orders.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

CapEx does not affect the operating (income) statement until the asset is placed in service, and only then does it start showing up as depreciation and amortization expense as part of COGS and OpEx. Unless the new capital assets they are spending on can be also used for S & X production, why place the new assets in service six months to a year before they can start making revenue-generating products?

If Elon and Jason really meant Capex, the logical inference would seem to be they don't understand the financial terms they are using, and I doubt that.

Since you doubt it, meaning that Elon & Jason really did mean CapEx (and the meaning that it implies), doesn't that mean that the assets are in service? As much as it doesn't make sense to do so, the purchased equipment (or at least some/most of it) are indeed in use?

 

[esk8mw]

I was referring to positive EPS.

However, I think for SP to have a big spike up, a la may 2013 short squeeze, I de believe a positive EPS is needed. I am looking forward to such a spike.

With continued negative EPS, SP may continue to trend up but very unlikely it will get a big spike up (baring external reasons like share recalls or something).

In any case I am becoming less and less optimistic that Q3 ER will deliver the goods. I'm resetting my expectations to Q4 ER. A mere 6 month wait... sigh...

I haven't run the numbers for Q4 yet, but some really rough math shows me they will need to reign in OpEx in order to break even in Q4, depending on deliveries of course. The Model 3 spending is just going to be enormous, meaning that profitability is just going to have to wait, most likely. I'm fine with that.

 

[srini]

I was referring to positive EPS.

However, I think for SP to have a big spike up, a la may 2013 short squeeze, I de believe a positive EPS is needed. I am looking forward to such a spike.

With continued negative EPS, SP may continue to trend up but very unlikely it will get a big spike up (baring external reasons like share recalls or something).

In any case I am becoming less and less optimistic that Q3 ER will deliver the goods. I'm resetting my expectations to Q4 ER. A mere 6 month wait... sigh...

 

[SBenson]

I haven't run the numbers for Q4 yet, but some really rough math shows me they will need to reign in OpEx in order to break even in Q4, depending on deliveries of course. The Model 3 spending is just going to be enormous, meaning that profitability is just going to have to wait, most likely. I'm fine with that.

Just about everybody is saying it and I don't get it. So it must be me...

Why would model 3 spending affect EPS? I totally understand that it affects cash-flow. But why EPS? CapEx shouldn't matter to EPS as brain45011 eloquently put it. Will R&D expenses be so much higher due to model 3, aren't we past that? "pencils down" remember. Growth in sales and service networks? Management already provided guidance on OpEx anyway, isn't it? So analysts would be accounting for it correctly I would think.

So I don't get why model 3 will butt into Q4 EPS or Q3 EPS for that matter.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Regarding SolarCity. Since analysts appear to not understand the factors impacting decisions made by SolarCity,
I'll highlight a few things that I think are being completely overlooked.

1) SolarCity guided for lower than expected sales because the company is focusing on reducing costs all around

2. It makes no sense for SolarCity to attempt to grow rapidly during the first half of 2016. SolarCity is focusing on reducing costs and barriers to operations (unreasonable fees being imposed by utilities).

3. SolarCity is waiting for the other Solar companies to slowdown or go bankrupt. SolarCity has access to more capital than any other Solar Company.

4. If installations have significantly slowed down, it's in large part to SolarCity reducing costs while playing the waiting game, and fighting for reasonable and sane state policy, and focusing on getting its factory fully operational.

5. SolarCity is probably is not absolutely waiting to finalize the merger before moving ahead with any big plans.

 

[SBenson]

View attachment 189294

My friend profits are not for our bull nourishment, we just care about growth and growth prospects. We want profits just to turn you into exactly that!

 

[TMSE]

Do they shut down production and delivery during those two weeks?
I thought last year they were very busy during December.
If they delivered over 3600 cars in only 2 weeks of December due to the 2 weeks of holiday, that would be really impressive.

Their January 2016 S sales were higher than their April 2016 S sales, so seems they had enough production in December to carry through on S orders.

Jason mentioned about 2 week holiday later this year in the earnings call last week. That's all we know.

I guess they will have one week off during Thanksgiving and another during Xmas.

 

[Crowded Mind]

Guys none of this matters, we're F'd. BMW has an affordable electric sedan and it's available NOW.

Like this post if you agree "Crowded Mind" is "Logical Thought".

My post was blatant sarcasm, but thanks for doing your research before making such an accusation.

Oops, there I go with the sarcasm again. It's a wicked habit.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

I think this is all the info you need about the BMW 75mpge 300e. (Is that really the best name BMW was able to think of?)

Like: Dislike ratio as of 7pm EST.


Almost every comment on the videos are people saying the BMW vehicle and commercials are pathetic.

I wonder how many millions of dollars BMW wasted on these commercials.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

My post was blatant sarcasm, but thanks for doing your research before making such an accusation.

Oops, there I go with the sarcasm again. It's a wicked habit.

Your "Logical Thoughts" are very revealing.