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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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So Mitch, we seem to be close to the right time to get positions lined up...will you be loading up on OTM J'17 calls, care to share?
Short answer, more information later. I sold the J17 $400's that I purchased a couple weeds ago at a $0.17 ($17 per contract) loss. I'm planning to replace them eventually (not sure when) with Mar17 $380's.
 
The packs in cars has a $190/kWh cost doesn't mean TE has that cost too. They are now being built in GF and you need to take the whole depreciation of GF into the TE's COGS. In Q4 2015 letter (or Q1 2016) they said TE has positive GM, if it was 50%, they would most likely brag about it. I was puzzled by that first. But then considering the whole GF's depreciation caused COGS to TE, that's understandable. .

GF depreciation estimate:
-Spent through 6/30/16: $431million
-Assume 1/2 relates to Panasonic and has not been placed in service
-Assume (for accounting not tax purposes) straight line over 20 year useful life.

$430 x 0.5 x 0.05 = $10.8 million/year (currently)
 
Going through the 10-Q now. Does anyone have a good explanation for the big QoQ Work in Process increase? The Finished Goods increase from 472.8MM to 754.8MM makes sense because they had a record number of finished cars in transit, but I expected the WIP number to decrease as Model X production issues were largely sorted by end of Q2 - not an increase from 199.1MM to 289.3MM. Is it possible that cars being shipped to Tilburg for assembly are treated as WIP rather than FG and an increase here explains the difference? The only other thing I can think of is that Fremont is seriously ramping production and perhaps there's a backlog at Final Assembly while earlier production processes are completing at a higher rate - leaving a higher value of WIP.

One way I like to look at production activity is to take the sum of WIP and FG. Here's some historical numbers in case anyone's interested:

15Q1: 555.7MM (492.6MM FG + 63.1MM WIP)
15Q2: 696.4MM (597.3MM FG + 99.1MM WIP)
15Q3: 779.0MM (692.4MM FG + 86.6MM WIP)
15Q4: 640.3MM (476.5MM FG + 163.8MM WIP)
16Q1: 672.0MM (472.8MM FG + 199.2MM WIP)
16Q2: 1,044.1MM (754.8MM FG + 289.3MM WIP)

Beginning 15Q4 you can see the Model X effect in the WIP number as they struggled to finish production of cars, parts shortages, being held up to sort quality issues, etc. Either way, pretty crazy to think that as of June 30 they were sitting on over 1 billion of finished or not-quite finished goods--a number that is almost double what it was on March 31, 2015.
 
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Going through the 10-Q now. Does anyone have a good explanation for the big QoQ Work in Process increase? The Finished Goods increase from 472.8MM to 754.8MM makes sense because they had a record number of finished cars in transit, but I expected the WIP number to decrease as Model X production issues were largely sorted by end of Q2 - not an increase from 199.1MM to 289.3MM. Is it possible that cars being shipped to Tilburg for assembly are treated as WIP rather than FG and an increase here explains the difference? The only other thing I can think of is that Fremont is seriously ramping production and perhaps there's a backlog at Final Assembly while earlier production processes are completing at a higher rate - leaving a higher value of WIP.

One way I like to look at production activity is to take the sum of WIP and FG. Here's some historical numbers in case anyone's interested:

15Q1: 555.7MM (492.6MM FG + 63.1MM WIP)
15Q2: 696.4MM (597.3MM FG + 99.1MM WIP)
15Q3: 779.0MM (692.4MM FG + 86.6MM WIP)
15Q4: 640.3MM (476.5MM FG + 163.8MM WIP)
16Q1: 672.0MM (472.8MM FG + 199.2MM WIP)
16Q2: 1,044.1MM (754.8MM FG + 289.3MM WIP)

Beginning 15Q4 you can see the Model X effect in the WIP number as they struggled to finish production of cars, parts shortages, being held up to sort quality issues, etc. Either way, pretty crazy to think that as of June 30 they were sitting on over 1 billion of finished or not-quite finished goods--a number that is almost double what it was on March 31, 2015.

Their sales should roughly double this year so wouldn't it stand to reason that WIP could too? Or maybe they ran full speed for parts of the production line that were working well and stockpiled when it had to go slow elsewhere?
 
Going through the 10-Q now. Does anyone have a good explanation for the big QoQ Work in Process increase? The Finished Goods increase from 472.8MM to 754.8MM makes sense because they had a record number of finished cars in transit, but I expected the WIP number to decrease as Model X production issues were largely sorted by end of Q2 - not an increase from 199.1MM to 289.3MM. Is it possible that cars being shipped to Tilburg for assembly are treated as WIP rather than FG and an increase here explains the difference? The only other thing I can think of is that Fremont is seriously ramping production and perhaps there's a backlog at Final Assembly while earlier production processes are completing at a higher rate - leaving a higher value of WIP.

One way I like to look at production activity is to take the sum of WIP and FG. Here's some historical numbers in case anyone's interested:

15Q1: 555.7MM (492.6MM FG + 63.1MM WIP)
15Q2: 696.4MM (597.3MM FG + 99.1MM WIP)
15Q3: 779.0MM (692.4MM FG + 86.6MM WIP)
15Q4: 640.3MM (476.5MM FG + 163.8MM WIP)
16Q1: 672.0MM (472.8MM FG + 199.2MM WIP)
16Q2: 1,044.1MM (754.8MM FG + 289.3MM WIP)

Beginning 15Q4 you can see the Model X effect in the WIP number as they struggled to finish production of cars, parts shortages, being held up to sort quality issues, etc. Either way, pretty crazy to think that as of June 30 they were sitting on over 1 billion of finished or not-quite finished goods--a number that is almost double what it was on March 31, 2015.

It's difficult to use WIP for Tesla only because you now have to factor in Tesla Energy and because they are so vertically integrated.
 
Going through the 10-Q now. Does anyone have a good explanation for the big QoQ Work in Process increase? The Finished Goods increase from 472.8MM to 754.8MM makes sense because they had a record number of finished cars in transit, but I expected the WIP number to decrease as Model X production issues were largely sorted by end of Q2 - not an increase from 199.1MM to 289.3MM. Is it possible that cars being shipped to Tilburg for assembly are treated as WIP rather than FG and an increase here explains the difference? The only other thing I can think of is that Fremont is seriously ramping production and perhaps there's a backlog at Final Assembly while earlier production processes are completing at a higher rate - leaving a higher value of WIP.

One way I like to look at production activity is to take the sum of WIP and FG. Here's some historical numbers in case anyone's interested:

15Q1: 555.7MM (492.6MM FG + 63.1MM WIP)
15Q2: 696.4MM (597.3MM FG + 99.1MM WIP)
15Q3: 779.0MM (692.4MM FG + 86.6MM WIP)
15Q4: 640.3MM (476.5MM FG + 163.8MM WIP)
16Q1: 672.0MM (472.8MM FG + 199.2MM WIP)
16Q2: 1,044.1MM (754.8MM FG + 289.3MM WIP)

Beginning 15Q4 you can see the Model X effect in the WIP number as they struggled to finish production of cars, parts shortages, being held up to sort quality issues, etc. Either way, pretty crazy to think that as of June 30 they were sitting on over 1 billion of finished or not-quite finished goods--a number that is almost double what it was on March 31, 2015.
If they increased production from just over 1k/week to 2k/week, it's only natural that WIP increases as well.
 
Guys none of this matters, we're F'd. BMW has an affordable electric sedan and it's available NOW.


That ad appeals to people who would buy an ICE vehicle. Yes, it's better than a non-hybrid, especially since it is a plug-in hybrid, but it is nowhere near pure, and nowhere near getting off of oil use. It is just a step in the right direction, something for which Tesla is almost two steps ahead (one step for abandoning oil use in its car and another step for creating the non-oil input that comes from the sun, in terms of trying to set up the whole Solar City + Battery + Inverter setup). True, Tesla isn't there yet. But at least they have the pieces coming together, and clearly so.

If you're going to buy an ICE? Yes, get a plug-in ICE Hybrid or even a non-plug in ICE Hybrid. They use less gas, and if it is a plug-in, then yes, they can use even less gas. If you're not going to buy an ICE? Well then.
 
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In the final 2 1/2 hours of after-hours trading on Friday, TSLA dropped nearly $3, likely due to concerns about the $411 repayment in 3rd quarter. Volume was extremely low, however. Over the weekend I have not seen much emphasis in the press on the need for Tesla to pay this amount. We'll see if the "usual suspects" are just saving this story for Monday morning in order to get maximum effect. My feeling was that TSLA was poised to have a good Monday before this issue, now I'm taking a wait and see posture.
As of right now, it's only down $1 since Friday at the same time of day, and this after revealing a half a billion cash hit. Who cares? Those who did due diligence on it either already knew about it before the early conversion or figured someone else had already done that due diligence, and so the major factor is cashflow. Tesla always bragged about borrowing here and there, and always mentioned paying back their loans. That's how this works. Markets seem to have responded kind of the way I'd expect (as a novice, though).
 
My thoughts and opinions and questions on some of the possible post ER short and medium catalysts.

PRODUCTION said:
Elon Reeve Musk - Chairman and CEO
I would also like to say a few words and Jason can address it. Basically, we were in production hell for the first six months of this year. Man, it was hell. And then we just managed to climb out of hell in like basically partway through June. And now the production line is humming and our suppliers mostly have their *sugar* together. There's a few that don't. One I'm going to be visiting on Saturday personally to figure out what the hell's going on there. But we'll solve it. But just the thing that's crazy hard about cars is that there's several thousand unique items and you move as fast as the slowest item in the whole car.

So, yes, with that said, production is like, it feels like we're – I'm not losing sleep at night literally because of production issues right now. 2,000 feels like a good number with a slow, steady increase in that number, and then continued cost efficiencies, which help with gross margin, some features that are going to come out that will also help on the revenue side. And I feel actually really good about Model S and Model X right now, but I'll get a whole lot of mental scar tissue from first six months of this year. Jason?

Jason S. Wheeler - Chief Financial Officer
Yes, I think, Elon, I think you covered it well. In terms of the modeling question, yes, I think just extrapolating from where we're at now, we're stable. We'll continue to get better on production throughout the course of the year. We've got a couple more holiday weeks in Q4. You might want to think about that when you're doing your modeling. But, yes, I think Elon covered it well.
It sounds like they have finally solved the MX production issues. I think that they will probably hit their goal of >2k cars per week. If they miss this IMO that would be really bad news.

PROFITABILITY said:
Rod Lache - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.
One last just housekeeping thing for Elon or Jason. You'd previously talked about the objective of profitability in the fourth quarter, but I know a lot's changing with the mix and also with the direct leasing. So is that also something that we should think of as being pushed out a quarter?

Elon Reeve Musk - Chairman and CEO
Well, if you exclude Model 3 CapEx ramp, then – well in fact, really for Q3 and for Q4, Tesla would be profitable excluding the Model 3 CapEx ramp.

Tyler Charles Frank - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Private Wealth Management)
Two short questions. One, can you discuss when you expect to be profitable on a non-GAAP basis?

Jason S. Wheeler - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, sure. On the profitability question, just reiterate what Elon said earlier. If we can execute on our production and our delivery goals in the second half of the year, we got a great chance to be non-GAAP profitable. So...

Elon Reeve Musk - Chairman and CEO
Yeah, excluding Model 3 CapEx. The real question on profitability is where do we set the dial on growth? And obviously, if you set the dial on growth to be super high, then you face dilution because of that increased capital. If you set it too low, there's less dilution but then you grow slower. So you want to set it at the right level where your – the right mix of dilution and growth. I mean, as it is, it's just important to bear in mind, like as a manufacturing company, our percentage growth, I think it's unprecedented in the modern era. It's really nutty....
I'd appreciate some opinions, about the expected impact (if any!) of being "non-GAAP profitable excluding Model 3 CapEx".

AUTONOMY said:
AUTONOMY Part 1:
James J. Albertine - Consumer Edge Research LLC
Very good. I appreciate the additional color. If I may just sneak in a quick follow-up on the autonomy topic. Elon, as we think about the stages of autonomy.... But just wanted to understand in more detail I think how you plan to get to fully autonomous. Thanks.

Elon Reeve Musk - Chairman and CEO
Well, again, major product announcements are not – I shouldn't do those on an earnings call, obviously. And all I'd say is that full autonomy is going to come a hell of a lot faster than anyone thinks it will. And I think what we've got under development is going to blow people's minds. It blows my mind, so.

AUTONOMY Part 2:
Brad Erickson - Pacific Crest Securities
Thanks for taking the question. Just had a quick follow up, I guess, on something that's been asked a couple of times; take another run at it. I guess given that you're obviously no longer working with this key supplier around full autonomy. What are the major hurdles that you see for Tesla here to overcome to get to full autonomy? Is it just a case of software development, lots more miles driven and basically getting the right people in place? Any color on sort of some of the key challenges you're facing and where you're particularly focused for delivering full autonomy at some point? Thanks.

Elon Reeve Musk - Chairman and CEO
Well, full autonomy is really a software limitation. I mean the hardware is just to create full autonomy, so it's really about developing advanced, narrow AI for the car to operate on. I want to emphasize narrow AI, it's like not going to take over the world, but it needs to be really good at driving a car. So increasingly sophisticated neural maps that can operate in reasonably sized computers in the car. That's our focus. I'm very optimistic about this. It's exciting, it blows me away, the progress we're making. So I think if I'm this close to it and it's blowing me away, it's really going to blow other people away when they see it for the first time.

AUTONOMY Part 3:
Charlie Lowell Anderson - Dougherty & Co. LLC
Yeah, thanks for taking my questions. My first question is around the sharing of vehicles described in the updated master plan. So, if we're moving from 5% to 10% utilization of the vehicle to some larger number, I wonder what you think the ramifications of that might be on the number of cars that need to be produced every year. And then maybe the ramifications as it relates to the Supercharger if the cars are always driving around. And then I have a follow-up.

Elon Reeve Musk - Chairman and CEO
Well, I think the demand for autonomous cars will vastly outweigh the production capability. So it's more in our mind that the global fleet of vehicles is about 2.5 billion roughly and total new vehicle production per year is only about 100 million. So, the fleet is basically turning over every roughly 20, 25 years. So we would have to make some truly enormous number of autonomous vehicles for there to be any saturation because it will basically be the only car anyone wants to buy.
I think the next major AP release will have a substantial impact on the SP. I've read quite a bit of speculation that that will be part of the second M3 reveal. I think the chances of that happening are close to zero. Doing that would reduce the demand for the MS-MX, and increase the demand for the M3. That would be pulling the wrong demand levers. Why would they to do that?

It sounds like it might be ready sooner rather than later, maybe in Q1 2017?
STATIONARY STORAGE Part 1:
Colin Michael Langan - UBS Securities LLC
Just as a follow up. Any update on stationary storage? I think your original target for $400 million to $500 million for this year and the $5 billion for next year [the correct 2017 target was $3 billion to $5 billion], any just color on how that's trending?

Elon Reeve Musk - Chairman and CEO
Heavily engineering and production constraints. We've got some next-generation technology and we're going to split up that production line. So, it's going to be heavily concentrated in Q4 and probably even heavily in November and December. But I think it's going to be really exciting when people see it. So, that's why I expect kind of exponential growth from there. I think it's really going to go ballistic.

Jonathan McNeill - President-Global Sales & Service, Tesla Motors, Inc.
Yeah, and we have been making quite a few background investments in the markets where we're growing, setting up the teams and setting up to get ready for expanded product installation and distribution, especially in places like Australia and Germany. So, some of that takes a bit of time but it's laying the infrastructure for faster growth.

STATIONARY STORAGE Part 2:
Rod Lache - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.
Thanks. I had a couple things. One is just following up on Tesla Energy, can you talk a little bit about the business pipeline, what's the mix of customers you're selling your product to? And is there a significant contingent of solar? And I wasn't clear on – there was an earlier question on whether the business is still tracking to around $500 million this year. Could you just elaborate on that business line?

Elon Reeve Musk - Chairman and CEO
Yes, it's heavily dependent on the production ramp in the last few months of the year. So there's definitely nothing even remotely close to demand constraints on the Tesla Energy side. It's entirely getting the engineering done, getting it validated, getting UL certification, scaling up all elements of the supply chain and being able to produce in volume.

So the reason it's tricky to predict is because the volume ramp looks like an exponential and so if you move the dates around even a little bit, it can quite significantly change what occurs in a quarter just because the production ramp is an exponential and shifts up a couple weeks, it can make the quarter look low, but actually it's in vertical climb mode. So the following quarter will look amazing. So what I'm highly confident of is that the next generation of stationary charge is head and shoulders above anything else that I've even heard announced as future plans from other companies.

Elon Reeve Musk - Chairman and CEO
So we've just got to build those damn things.

Rod Lache - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.
Yes, the customers that you're anticipating, are there significant renewables in there? Is it commercial, residential?

Elon Reeve Musk - Chairman and CEO
Everything.

Elon Reeve Musk - Chairman and CEO
We've just got to scale up production, and production is a hard thing. It's real hard.

Particularly when it's new technology. If it's some standard technology to make for one time, it's fine. It's cutting edge technology, it's really hard to scale up production, because you've got to design the machine that makes the machine, not just the machine itself. But the results can be amazing. Like I said, it's going be head and shoulders above anything else. It's better than anything I've heard anyone even announce that they will do in near future, AND WE WILL DO IT IN THE PRESENT.

INVERTER:
Charlie Lowell Anderson - Dougherty & Co. LLC
Thanks. And then for my second question, I wonder if you could clarify comments made on the last call about inverter technology. You mentioned having some of the best in the world for power electronics. So I wonder if you could just comment if indeed that's the case that you will be making your own inverter, and if so, what would be the benefit to the overall system with your inverter technology versus what's used today?

Elon Reeve Musk - Chairman and CEO
Yeah, there's no question Tesla's going to do integrated inverter. It's the logical thing to do. I think we've got the most advanced inverter engineering team in the world, and so it makes sense to, just as we do the inventers on vehicles, to do it with solar as well and have it in a very tight package at a cents per watt level that is I think probably twice as good as anyone else. I think maybe better than that.

So, that's like the obvious move there, and as part of what we're referring to as kind of an integrated product, I mean, if you place yourself in the consumer's shoes, you just want it to work. You don't want to know how it works. You don't care about the details. It's just got to work reliably, look good, not take up a ton of space, the buying process has got be easy. You can check up on it with the app on your phones. There's only one phone app. You want it to be easy. You want it to just work. You want it to be affordable. You want it to look good. So, that's what we're going to do.
I see two possible production hurdles, GF Cell Production and inverter production. Given all of Tesla's inverter production experience I think that's unlikely to be a major issue.

I'e seen some comments claiming that it will take quite a while for demand to build up (e.g. permitting problems, utilities are conservative etc.). If that's correct Elon is totally delusional. Given that he gets feedback from "teams and setting up to get ready for expanded product installation and distribution" I've got to go with Elon on this.

I believe that worst likely case they slip one quarter and we won't have a substantial impact on the SP until the Q1 2017 ER-CC (in May Yikes!).

OTOH if they're on track for $3-$5 billion in 2017 at the end of Q4 that would be huge!
 
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As of right now, it's only down $1 since Friday at the same time of day, and this after revealing a half a billion cash hit. Who cares? Those who did due diligence on it either already knew about it before the early conversion or figured someone else had already done that due diligence, and so the major factor is cashflow. Tesla always bragged about borrowing here and there, and always mentioned paying back their loans. That's how this works. Markets seem to have responded kind of the way I'd expect (as a novice, though).

It's interesting to see that the $3 drop in after-market trading on Friday afternoon carried into the pre-market trading this morning pretty-much intact. We saw at least one deep dip in the morning (with an immediate, near recovery) that suggests strategic short-selling, but TSLA has since then taken an upward turn. Now that we're into the low-volume period of the day, we're taking another small downturn, but I suspect the TSLA bulls will counter that trend.

Two observations:
* Sometimes, the type of creative short-selling we saw on Friday, when TSLA looked like it really wanted to rise, can pay off for shorts. Some perceived bad news on Friday afternoon allowed today's trading to be muted, and the combination of Friday's efforts by shorts and today's effect of the $411M repayment may have stopped for now the rally that seemed to be brewing (Cramer saying Tesla going higher, etc.).

* The overall tendency of TSLA remains positive. After the dips of this morning's trading, TSLA has been moving upward to recover territory lost earlier in the day. Expect strategic selling by shorts if TSLA gets within 25 cents of turning green. If we close in the green, that action would suggest that Tuesday's trading would be positive.
 
Looks like recycling the same content?

And Panasonic has committed to investing a minimum of $3billion + into the Gigafactory to accelerate production of the Model 3. Interesting they left out this key piece of info.

Regarding the 330e, all I can say is lol.
1) The vehicle is not compelling
2) BMW is not planning on mass producing the 330e.
3) I can't see any situation where a person would say "hey guys, look at my new 75mpge 330e".
4) The 330e is not an EV. It is a plug in hybrid. Basically an expensive Chevy Volt.


Like this post if you agree "Crowded Mind" is "Logical Thought".
 
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My opinion is he mis-spoke; he was thinking about the Model 3 expense in R&D that is part of OpEx and said "CapEx"
Elon said CAPEX at least twice, and at least once Jason agreed with him. They were both mistaken?

IMO Tesla is planning to start buying, designing and modifying production line equipment, in Q3 and Q4. How much longer can they wait?

But either way I'd like opinions on how that financial projection effects the SP.
 
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Also, on the 330e, I'd love to see the environmental impact of these "exotic" hybrid vehicles that use specialized parts, and have the environmental impact of the battery + the gasoline engine. Getting this vehicle serviced, assuming it is ever produced, will be a nightmare.
 
2017 delivery is for 5 seater. If you opt for to 6 or 7 seaters, you will get in late October.
Delaying delivery of the 5 person seat configuration that long leads me to only one conclusion: Tesla is reengineering the Model X 2nd row seats to fold flat and will deliver this first in the 5 seater.
 
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As you see above the margin of error for Q3 to produce a positive eps is quite very low.

For context, Q2 non-gaap eps consensus was -0.60 but Tesla delivered -1.06 (a negative 77% surprise). So whether Q3 will be positive or not is quite very uncertain.
 
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