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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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In addition to bgarrett and AlMc's comments, Apple makes Elon's vision for Tesla possible: Apple accelerates the adoption of sustainable transportation (and accelerates the demand for EVs in a heart beat). From Day One, Elon believed Tesla would serve as catalyst for major OEMs (GM, Toyota, BMW, etc.) to pursue EV programs. Well, it's almost three years since the launch of Model S, and the Mass adoption of EVs is insignificant compared to the entire auto industry. 2018 projected production of EVs (the S, X, III, Chevy Bolt, Nissan Leaf, and any other 100% EV) will be no more than 400,000 units (if Tesla increases production 50% per year starting at 55K this year, you arrive at 185,625 units. NO ONE is growing faster than that in 3 years). If Tesla is the leader in EV production by 2018, at best the worldwide production of EVs is 400,000 units. Last year, 82.8 Million new cars were manufactured: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101321938#. So, assuming there is zero growth the entire auto industry by 2018, new EV production represents 0.61% (just over half a percent) of new auto sales. So, 6 years after Tesla launches the Model S - the unanimous COTY, Consumers Report rated 99/100, the car with the 30% Gross Margins (and room for growth), etc., etc., etc. - Tesla has been the catalyst for insignificant growth in the EV market. And any future EV growth is still very much dependent on Tesla. This is not what Elon envisioned.
Bring Apple into the equation, and the EV industry explodes. Without getting too far off topic, Apple just announced a watch. Wall Street projects 10 to 15 million units sold in year one. Apple announces a car that is $30 to $50K, and year one demand is 1 to 2 million. Apple generates automotive demand in a heart beat. More specifically, Apple generates EV demand in a heart beat that the automotive industry takes seriously (the automotive industry is driven - no pun intended - by one word: Volume. Period). 1 Million+ units in the auto industry is considered volume.
Last two points:
1) There are many Tesla faithful that don't want Apple involved (and many Apple faithful that don't want Apple pursuing cars), but here's a way to satisfy both faithful. What if Apple and Tesla manufacture two variants on the same platform? Elon Musk announced that the Model 3 will have a "less adventurous" variant and then something more adventurous to minimize delays. Apple manufactures the less adventurous variant (less performance, more "minimalist" design, a more "Apple" product and less of a "Car" product, etc.). And Tesla manufactures a more adventurous variant (aggressive car, in every aspect: think P85D. Think Insane mode.).
2) And maybe it's just Occam's Razor: Tim Cook realizes what Elon knows and what we all believe in. Investing in Battery Technology is smart. It's the future. Perhaps Tim Cook is looking at a Multi Trillion (with a "T") dollar industry that is on the verge of being turned on its head (and shaken), and he wants in: Apple: Rumors of EV to Challenge Tesla or Buying Tesla - Page 29 Perhaps Tim Cook sees it costs $5 Billion for Gigafactory #1 and would like to spend $5 to $10 Billion on Gigafactory #2 or Gigafactories #2 and #3. This way they can produce 1.5 to 2 million cars in 6 years time. I'm not the first former investment banker to have this observation: Adnaan Ahmad – Open Letter to Apple - Buy Tesla Motors | Genius Perhaps Tim Cook and Apple are looking at the Automotive industry today as they saw the cell phone industry 8+ years ago.
Now to get this post back on topic. I believe this all comes down to if Apple wants to be in the battery storage (i.e., EV, etc.) business. All indications are they have serious interest. I see no reason why Apple waits a year or longer. Last February when Elon acknowledged that he previously met with Apple in 2013, the Giga Factory was not officially announced Gigafactory | Tesla Motors Nor was the Gigafactory financed Tesla Announces $1.6 Billion Convertible Notes Offering | Tesla Motors And the partnership with Panasonic was not official Panasonic and Tesla Sign Agreement for the Gigafactory | Tesla Motors My point is Tesla has made significant progress in raising capital, partnering with Panasonic, and constructing the first Gigafactory since Elon acknowledged he spoke with Apple. Why would Apple wait another year or two if they are serious about battery storage? Tesla moves fast. Even for a company that generates $5 Billion in Free Cash Flow per month, each passing month makes this opportunity very expensive.
I believe if Apple is interested in the EV market, something happens in the short-term.
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jhm
Well-Known Member
Apple would make a fine competitor, but I still don't see what Panasonic and Tesla lack. I think they've got all the talent, technology, vision and ability to raise capital they need. If the point is that the market needs more capable EV makers, then I'd be quite pleased to see Apple try to compete. But if I were Panasonic, I would not want to Apple to move in and take away partnering opportunities with Tesla. I view Panasonic and Apple as more direct competitors in the electronics space. Granted Apple is more successful of the two, but why would Panasonic want to let Apple walk all over it and get the best opportunities for working with Tesla? I am explicitly asking, what is in this for Panasonic? Why wouldn't Panasonic be jealous of Apple?
TSLAROX
Member
Tesla doesn't need Apple. My sense is that Apple proposed a partnership at that meeting last year, and Elon said no. Perhaps poaching Tesla employees and putting on a show of developing an EV is Apple's way of trying to force some kind of partnership down the line, or else they really do want to compete. Google, on the other hand, might want to get into home/consumer energy storage, and I could see them becoming the number one customer of Tesla batteries (potential synergy with Nest, Solar City, and Tesla batteries).
I respect your analysis... but I think jhm had a point, in that Tesla and Panasonic partnership already has the roadmap to mass produce vehicles that people want. Apple may have all the money in the world right now, but that money was mostly made with Steve Jobs' leadership. The newest Apple product launches already demonstrate that they are no longer pursuing to create new markets, instead choosing to focus on the high margin, luxury market. The leadership philosophies are a clash, and frankly, is taking a step backwards from a growth perspective.
The iPhone6 had record sales, sure, but resulted in cannibalizing their iPad sales which was exactly what SJ foresaw if they made a bigger phone. Apple is just in a spec race with other OEMs which is not what Apple was about before. The Apple watch is a safe bet because they can satisfy their loyal fans and profit from the high margins without needing to manufacture many units. They will make money, but it's not making the pie any bigger, like the iphone and ipad did with their AppStore platform.
Is Apple a growth stock or a value stock? some may argue its a balance of both - but I think it leans a little more on a value stock. Meaning management are more interested in making small incremental improvements to the bottom line rather than making risky bets to make us rethink how ever lived without the next apple product.
case in point; The only thing Apple has is money. Money that no longer has business in a growth industry.
The iPhone6 had record sales, sure, but resulted in cannibalizing their iPad sales which was exactly what SJ foresaw if they made a bigger phone. Apple is just in a spec race with other OEMs which is not what Apple was about before. The Apple watch is a safe bet because they can satisfy their loyal fans and profit from the high margins without needing to manufacture many units. They will make money, but it's not making the pie any bigger, like the iphone and ipad did with their AppStore platform.
Is Apple a growth stock or a value stock? some may argue its a balance of both - but I think it leans a little more on a value stock. Meaning management are more interested in making small incremental improvements to the bottom line rather than making risky bets to make us rethink how ever lived without the next apple product.
case in point; The only thing Apple has is money. Money that no longer has business in a growth industry.
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The reference is freakishly interesting and I think it would be a shame for folks here who don't know to miss out (dear mods: the stock price would definitely move if the media thought Elon was losing his mind with these tweets
).Dr. Wernher von Braun, the father of modern rocket science and architect behind getting humanity to the moon, once wrote a book about Mars which included a section on how he envisioned Mars would be governed:
The Martian government was directed by ten men, the leader of whom was elected by universal suffrage for five years and entitled "Elon." Two houses of Parliament enacted the laws to be administered by the Elon and his cabinet.
Wernher von Brauns The Mars Project - Album on Imgur
The creepy/cool part is Wernher von Braun lived from 1912 to 1977 and this book was published decades ago. It seems too coincidental that the man currently pushing humanity towards colonizing Mars also happens to be named "Elon", so there are joking theories along the lines of:
- Elon is a time traveller from a future Mars colony and he wants to go back to die on his native soil
- Elon is stuck in some time loop where he needs to found the Martian colony to be born there eventually to come back
So remember to vote for Elon the Elon in the 2035 Martian election everyone!
Btw Elon will probably reveal his Mars Colonial Transporter (MCT) fleet architecture later this year, no joke ElonMuskOfficial comments on I am Elon Musk, CEO/CTO of a rocket company, AMA!
Tesla Reassigns Sales Chief Amid Search for Regional Executives
The 50% S demand increase in 2015 isn't that rosy, otherwise Jerome won't be moved from sales chief position. TM is taking steps to resolve issues.
The 50% S demand increase in 2015 isn't that rosy, otherwise Jerome won't be moved from sales chief position. TM is taking steps to resolve issues.
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I'm not sure it's fair to infer that from the article you posted. It's pretty natural for a global company to have dedicated executives for each region.
"Tesla said it’s interviewing candidates for the three leaders to manage regional store and sales-force operations."
Why was he moved without suitable candiates for replacement ready? Only cases i saw such things happening was when a manager fell from grace, does not look like some sheduled staff rotation
Why was he moved without suitable candiates for replacement ready? Only cases i saw such things happening was when a manager fell from grace, does not look like some sheduled staff rotation
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Maybe we haven't read the same article, but as far as what I read, he wasn't moved yet. He WILL be moved when suitable candidates are found. He is still VP of global sales and service. His actual position will be split in four: 3 global sales position (US, ASIA, EU) and one for service. I guess in a rapidly growig company, at one stage, one man can't do it all by himself...So some people see it as a negative and as a consequence of lack of good results, I see it as just a logical evolution.
Searched GPU Tech Conf schedule and found no planned Musk speaking engagement despite his pic w/ Huang.
Session Calendar | GTC 2015
Any idea why?
Session Calendar | GTC 2015
Any idea why?
That jives with the Bloomberg version Tesla Reassigns Sales Chief Amid Search for Regional Executives - Bloomberg Business
And the obvious evidence it's a move due to growth of the company and not performance - he's not being replaced by one person. His role is being split up so each of the four constituents positions can be expanded.
flankspeed8
Member
Muskol
Member
Deutsche Bank lowers EPS estimates for 2015 and 2016
http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Tesla+%28TSLA%29+EPS+Estimates+Trimmed+at+Deutsche+Bank/10369714.html
http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Tesla+%28TSLA%29+EPS+Estimates+Trimmed+at+Deutsche+Bank/10369714.html
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Putting a negative spin on a neutral event, in contrast to available facts. There is a term for that...
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