Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[techmaven]

As far as Model 3 pricing goes, Tesla can have it both ways. Bring out the triumph of a base model that starts at $35,000 and also enjoy an ASP of $45,000 to $50,000 with fully loaded models going higher. As long as it is possible to order a ~$35,000 Model 3, it won't matter if the base model is rarely ordered and the fulfillment is substantially at a lower priority. The addressable market at $40,000 to $50,000 is an order of magnitude higher than where the Model S and X sit now. The problem will again be that Tesla is production constrained, regardless of the GM Bolt or the Nissan Leaf v2, BMW i3 v2, or other vehicles. They will be production constrained whether the ASP is $35,000, $40,000, or even $50,000. You just have to look at what the market is going to look like in 2017 and 2018 and the moves by non-Tesla auto manufacturers as well as the infrastructure build out is clearly pointing to a lack of robust competition. That's not the same thing as no competition, just that it won't be enough to crimp Tesla's plans at all. Tesla's issues thus far have been mostly self inflicted as opposed to getting real competition and that's likely to be the case going forward.

 

[aznt1217]

Is this Model X number 40 in the factory in Fremont?
View attachment 100777

Wow that thing is dope.

 

[FredTMC]

Someone needs to snap a pic of the VIN

 

[Scott Ales]

Is it possible that we will have a green day?

 

[phigment]

Yeah, would be ideal for tesla to give an MX production update during this meeting

I wonder what was said at this meeting. Think this was the catalyst for today's lift?

 

[FredTMC]

I wonder what was said at this meeting. Think this was the catalyst for today's lift?

thats my thinking. Haven't found news on it though.

This and/or short covering.

 

[Drax7]

Is this Model X number 40 in the factory in Fremont?
View attachment 100777

That is some cool car, auction it off for a million plus and donate to veterans.

 

[FredTMC]

That is some cool car, auction it off for a million plus and donate to veterans.

Well, we don't have the VIN but it certainly seems like Tesla is trying to advertise that this "veterans" MX is the 40th MX

what else is the significant of "40" on the side of the fender?... "P-90D-X-40"

 

[Papafox]

I'm not unhappy with my in the red options. I don't feel that my happiness is dependent upon our bank balance.

Let me rephrase the question. Do you feel you hold a sufficient number of TSLA shares, considering we may have bottomed out on the week's drop? (Question posed as TSLA was at 215 and starting up).

 

[MitchJi]

Let me rephrase the question. Do you feel you hold a sufficient number of TSLA shares, considering we may have bottomed out on the week's drop? (Question posed as TSLA was at 215 and starting up).

Yes, because except a small amount set aside, waiting for the J18 options we're all in. Planning to put most of our available funds in $480-$500 strike price options. Hard to get more bullish than that .

Nice short Solar City video:
SolarCity Veterans Day Spotlight - YouTube


SolarCity Video Highlighted in Solar Jobs From Veteran’s Point Of View

The SolarCity YouTube video tells a compelling story, but it’s not the whole story. CleanTechnica got the inside scoop from Sandoval himself in a phone conversation last week, so we’re happy to fill in (many) more details with the following exclusive interview.

Solar Jobs Generate Excitement

In the video, Sandoval describes how solar jobs can be a major turning point in the lives of returning veterans. In our conversation, he recalls another major turning point that occurred just two weeks after he began work:

I’ll never forget this. I was on top of a house in Pasadena and someone stopped, honked their horn and gave us a big thumbs up because they saw solar panels going up on this house, ran to the store, bought us a case of water, and brought it to us.

At that point I knew I wasn’t in your average construction company. I knew that I was going to be a part of something that everybody wanted, and that everybody was embracing.

That’s when I started paying attention to what I was actually doing.

When I started with this company I thought it was just construction. You know, that doing renewable energy is a different type of construction. So, my mentality was construction. But I didn’t actually realize until that moment that I saw that person. It wasn’t even a customer, it was a random person that had seen us, and was excited about it, and at that point I really started telling myself like what am I actually doing?

And then I started doing my own research, and then it kind of blew up from there, as far as my passion.

If you really think about it, nobody gets excited about construction. You look at a house being built, and no-one gets excited that we’re construction workers.

[snip]

That was just one [instance]. If I had a quarter for everyone who said, “We’re happy you guys are here in the neighborhood, we’re excited, we’re going to get it ourselves,” or the neighbor says “we’re excited about this,” I wouldn’t have to work. I would be a rich man.

 

[jhm]

Elon has said that he doesn't chase the stock price, and it seems he sticks to that. There'll be tweets or updates when there's something interesting to say, and not before, I'm afraid. My guess is that the next tweet will be some milestone reached in Autopilot driving, like 10 million miles or something. I don't know when that might happen though.

I'd love for some journalist to ask Musk if he thought that Tesla is overvalued by the market right now.

 

[Krugerrand]

This will be my last comment on the $60k subject. And as always, is opinion based. The buyer of an automobile rarely takes the time to look past headlines. If they see $60k now or later for the M3 they won't even take the time to understand the difference between a launch edition and a base car. We know that for a fact. Even the headlines today will impact their buying decision 2-4 years later. "Hmm.. I remember a few years back, these are $60k. I better go look at the (insert competitive car that is NOT competitive) and see how much they are."
Now their in the clutches of the stereotypical car dealership who is grinding away to make a deal on the spot.

That is a real risk. Take it from someone who has been around the established car sales environment for 30 years. It will have an impact if they don't address it.

I understand your concern, but I'm telling you that you're worrying for naught. Firstly, the base price of Model 3 will be reiterated when Tesla does their reveal next spring of it. That reveal and thusly the subsequent details and pricing will be blasted all over the place. Any media outlet at that time who wants to take on Elon's twitter account and (currently) almost 3 MILLION followers by misrepresenting the pricing will be sorry they did. Secondly, if Tesla takes reservations for Model 3, which we have no evidence at this point that they won't, you're going to see that list explode in very short order. I'm actually expecting the first two years of production to be sold out within a matter of months.

 

[gene]

I'm actually expecting the first two years of production to be sold out within a matter of months.

I'm thinking more like a matter of days, if not hours.

 

[EldestOyster]

you're going to see that list explode in very short order. I'm actually expecting the first two years of production to be sold out within a matter of months.

I'm thinking more like a matter of days, if not hours.

I've been in on a few of these events, and it's somewhat amusing to see the infrastructure crumble under the load. In recent times, it would be described as "crashed the servers", longer ago it was "switches went down, phone company is investigating..." There's got to be some entertainment value in it, considering in most cases it was very difficult to get one's order in. Come to think of it, we got very close to this situation when the LEAF reservations opened.

Might make some good press, if we all broke something trying to order our Model 3's.

 

[Yggdrasill]

I'm thinking more like a matter of days, if not hours.

I don't think hours. Two years of production should be something like 300k cars. I don't see 300k people sitting ready at the order button.

Days? Maybe, but months is probably more likely.

 

[schonelucht]

I don't think hours. Two years of production should be something like 300k cars. I don't see 300k people sitting ready at the order button.

Days? Maybe, but months is probably more likely.

Depends, if it's a non-committal Tesla Powerwall reveal (click here to reserve yours) then 300k in the matter of hours seems easy. If it's one where you need to put $5k down it's going to be a different matter.

 

[Gtoffo]

Yes, because except a small amount set aside, waiting for the J18 options we're all in. Planning to put most of our available funds in $480-$500 strike price options. Hard to get more bullish than that .

:scared: Mitch..... 500 dollar strike options? I don't think those even exist! Be realistic and prudent out there guys.............. The days of TSLA exploding like that are over. Trade accordingly.

 

[jhm]

Depends, if it's a non-committal Tesla Powerwall reveal (click here to reserve yours) then 300k in the matter of hours seems easy. If it's one where you need to put $5k down it's going to be a different matter.

I really do hope they require a substantial deposit for a reservation. First, it will be frustrating to get pushed way back in a line by a bunch of quick fingered reservation holders who are not serious enough about actually buying the car to put some real money behind their intention. This creates uncertainty and potential delay for serious buyers. Second, of concern to investors will be the quality of cashless reservations. That situation would give FUDsters no end of opportunity question how many real buyers there are among 300,000 low commitment reservations. I would much rather have 100,000 reservations with $500M in actual deposits than 500,000 reservations with $5M deposits. Costumer deposits show up in financials and five shareholders much better transparency.

Another way they could do this is to allow customers to make deposits of any size upto $40k with the caveat that higher deposit reservations will get to order before lower deposits. This sets up an auction for how long one is willing to wait. It would optimize the amount of customer deposits received. It would also mean that the early buyers would need little to no financing. This would optimize Tesla's cashflow as they would be doing very little leasing in the first quarters of production.

So with this auction format, how much would any of us be willing to put down? Personally, I would put down $10k to $20k. I think that would suffice to get into the for 9 months of production.

 

[Scott Ales]

I really do hope they require a substantial deposit for a reservation. First, it will be frustrating to get pushed way back in a line by a bunch of quick fingered reservation holders who are not serious enough about actually buying the car to put some real money behind their intention. This creates uncertainty and potential delay for serious buyers. Second, of concern to investors will be the quality of cashless reservations. That situation would give FUDsters no end of opportunity question how many real buyers there are among 300,000 low commitment reservations. I would much rather have 100,000 reservations with $500M in actual deposits than 500,000 reservations with $5M deposits. Costumer deposits show up in financials and five shareholders much better transparency.

Another way they could do this is to allow customers to make deposits of any size upto $40k with the caveat that higher deposit reservations will get to order before lower deposits. This sets up an auction for how long one is willing to wait. It would optimize the amount of customer deposits received. It would also mean that the early buyers would need little to no financing. This would optimize Tesla's cashflow as they would be doing very little leasing in the first quarters of production.

So with this auction format, how much would any of us be willing to put down? Personally, I would put down $10k to $20k. I think that would suffice to get into the for 9 months of production.

I already offered to pay for my M3 upfront, today with no restrictions on when I would receive it. Seriously, I made this offer to one of the Florida senior managers. No word back and I don't really expect them to officially respond.

 

[replicant]

I really do hope they require a substantial deposit for a reservation. First, it will be frustrating to get pushed way back in a line by a bunch of quick fingered reservation holders who are not serious enough about actually buying the car to put some real money behind their intention. This creates uncertainty and potential delay for serious buyers. Second, of concern to investors will be the quality of cashless reservations. That situation would give FUDsters no end of opportunity question how many real buyers there are among 300,000 low commitment reservations. I would much rather have 100,000 reservations with $500M in actual deposits than 500,000 reservations with $5M deposits. Costumer deposits show up in financials and five shareholders much better transparency.

Another way they could do this is to allow customers to make deposits of any size upto $40k with the caveat that higher deposit reservations will get to order before lower deposits. This sets up an auction for how long one is willing to wait. It would optimize the amount of customer deposits received. It would also mean that the early buyers would need little to no financing. This would optimize Tesla's cashflow as they would be doing very little leasing in the first quarters of production.

So with this auction format, how much would any of us be willing to put down? Personally, I would put down $10k to $20k. I think that would suffice to get into the for 9 months of production.

Great idea.