Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[mrdoubleb]

Doing reservation at a store, of course, is not the only way to order MX - it can be done on-line from any computer, not necessarily from the computer located at a store.

And as long as there is no Model X on display at the stores I would bet most people who want to reserve without having even seen the car in person would do it online. Once they checked all the details, there is a "reserve" button there - what would be the point of going into the showroom?

We will know when Model X backlog/orders decrease as Tesla will be quick to introduce the X75D.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Massive, very cool , should be great publicity

Looks like they are ahead of their schedule for the coast to coast autopilot rally (twitter):

Should we stop for massages since we're so far ahead of schedule?

Ok, a quick thought about autopilot.
After reading various sources and seeing several videos I am inclined to think a bit more positive about this thing.
While I learned a lot about the basic algorithms needed for applications like autopilot at university, I have not worked in autopilot projects.
I have to admitt it looks like the algorithms implemented learn at a much faster pace than I have imagined.
I would really like to know what the SW guys at Tesla are doing there (seriously hoping for a Tesla Motors blog post by Elon or the person in charge of the autopilot project)!
Is it possible to not do a factory tour in Fremont but a 'SW department tour' including coffee & chat with the SW guys
All right, my expectations have changed a bit: fear -> cautiously optimistic
If we do not see a couple of crashes during the next days/weeks and the system evolves in a positive way, this autopilot could be the next big thing.
These are the features that create the high thech brand Tesla Motors.
These are features people are willing to spend their money on.
These are features people are recording videos that go viral.
These are features people are talking about with their friends.
Let's see.

 

[Papafox]

Seeking some advice from the seasoned forum members here: I hold 8 call contracts 150 expiring Jan '16. Average cost is $35, so break-even is $185. But, I've held them specifically to fund my Model X purchase and right now at $60K these contracts are not worth enough to pay for the car.

Would I be better off (1) converting them to shares using margin and waiting for the stock price to appreciate? Or (2) should I reinvest the $60K in June '16 call options and betting on a major gain first half of 2016 that will allow me to get the car in the summer?

What is the best strategy... risk assessment... decision?

I know the pros and cons of the two scenarios: (1) no tax implication, but shares won't appreciate as much as options and margin interest payments (2) taxed over $40 gain (as of today) and risk of calls expiring worthlessly if things go sour, but chance of much bigger returns.

Also, what do people think are the most attractive June '16 calls right now?

I went with Jan17s when I sold my Dec15 and Jan16 ITM calls. If June16s were available I would have split between the two.

Edit: Depending upon your expectations for 3QER, you might even wish to keep some cash as a hedge in case of a dip and then buy in soon after the 3QER

 

[pGo]

JPM has new comments causing today's action?

Why Tesla Could Tumble 20% - Stocks to Watch - Barrons.com

 

[ev-enthusiast]

BTW MACD about to cross positive on the daily chart.

 

[chickensevil]

This might have some short term impact: http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_28992919/dmv-warns-tesla-its-referral-program-is-unlawful?source=infinite-up

So I posted this in the comments, but the two laws that they are trying to target, one *technically* doesn't apply (which appears to be the main one the DMV is contesting, related to the "Bird Dog" laws, and the second one is practically unenforceable:

"Use of “Bird Dogs” (Illegal Salesperson Activity) It is unlawful for any licensed dealer to employ any person as a salesperson, who has not been licensed by the department as outlined in CVC Section 11800. This includes the payment of “referral” or “finders” fee to any person who directs a potential customer to a dealer. It is unlawful for any licensed salesperson to perform the sales activities outlined in CVC Section 675 at any location other than the employing dealer’s licensed location."

and

"V C Section 11800 Unlawful to Act as Vehicle Salesperson Without License
Unlawful to Act as Vehicle Salesperson Without License
11800. It shall be unlawful for any person to act as a vehicle salesperson without having first procured a license or temporary permit issued by the department or when that license or temporary permit issued by the department has been canceled, suspended, revoked, or invalidated or has expired.
Amended Ch. 1563, Stats. 1990. Effective January 1, 1991"


So here goes, technically it isn't the "dealer" issuing the rebate, but the manufacturer. The "dealer" didn't hire (officially or unofficially) anyone. So the "licensed dealer" referenced by the law didn't do anything. It was the manufacturer. And it is a manufacturer rebate to both the referral and referee. In fact, you aren't even directing the person to a "licensed dealer" you are directing them to the manufacturer's website. I don't give people a link to Bob's Tesla in Palm Springs... I am sending them to Teslamotors.com (just the same a bmw.com or mb.com). So the first law referenced is clearly not applicable (or it can be argued that way).
The second one... well, that one is technically true. But it is also totally unenforceable. I mean, are you going to ticket people because they are standing around talking about a car? Let me take you to the nearest cars and coffee in your area and let you start ticketing all the BMW, MB, Lambo, Ferrari... owners for talking about their cars because clearly they are trying to get you to buy their car. Good luck enforcing that one...

 

[doggusfluffy]

Tim Cook Talks at WSJDLive About the Future of Cars

 

[Scott Ales]

Tim Cook Talks at WSJDLive About the Future of Cars

Laughable that neither of the two mention the absolute leader in this industry now.

 

[Drax7]

Looks like they are ahead of their schedule for the coast to coast autopilot rally (twitter):



For computer vision it's all Mobileye, their eyeq3 chip processor and algorithms are doing all
the path finding . Tesla just adapts it to car and its mechanical systems.

 

[Lump]

Chevrolet Develops Bolt EV Using Strategic Partnership

Engineers from GM and LG Electronics partner on critical components

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Any news out?

 

[eepic]

Phil Lebeau just tweeted:

Phil LeBeau ‏@Lebeaucarnews 3m3 minutes ago
NEW: @CRcars 2015 auto reliability survey rates #Tesla Model S as "worse than average"

Phil LeBeau ‏@Lebeaucarnews 3m3 minutes ago
NEW: @CRcars on Tesla Model S reliability "We are seeing more problems as they increase in volume."

Sigh, unfortunately this is another data point for a legitimate concern. Hopefully it pushes them to address it systematically in the medium/long term, get it together Tesla!

 

[ludicrousspeed]

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/20/lexu...adline|headline|story&par=yahoo&doc=103092597

Here's the full article that seemed to cause an enormous drop in share price instantly. I don't own a Tesla but don't some of the claims seem contrary to most owner's experiences?

 

[mibaro2]

Consumer Reports yanked its recommendation to Tesla model S citing reliability issues
http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-consumer-reports-tesla-models-20151020-story.html

 

[vgrinshpun]

CR new comparative reliability rankings for hybrids/electric cars:

 

[EnergyMax]

Consumer Reports yanked its recommendation to Tesla model S citing reliability issues
http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-consumer-reports-tesla-models-20151020-story.html

"But if it were scored as a brand, the automaker would have placed 19th between Acura and GMC, Consumer Reports said."
So Tesla is more reliable than
GMC
Chevrolet
Mercedes-Benz
Chrysler
Dodge
Infiniti
Cadillac
Ram
Jeep
Fiat

 

[FluxCap]

Ouch.

 

[justthateasy]

God dammit, out of nowhere TSLA goes over a cliff in the last half hour. Just can't catch a break with this one.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

crazy.

 

[MrBoylan]

Phil Lebeau just tweeted:

Phil LeBeau ‏@Lebeaucarnews 3m3 minutes ago
NEW: @CRcars 2015 auto reliability survey rates #Tesla Model S as "worse than average"

Phil LeBeau ‏@Lebeaucarnews 3m3 minutes ago
NEW: @CRcars on Tesla Model S reliability "We are seeing more problems as they increase in volume."

Sigh, unfortunately this is another data point for a legitimate concern. Hopefully it pushes them to address it systematically in the medium/long term, get it together Tesla!

And LG/GM announced that the Bolt is on track for late 2016 productione, still under $30K after incentives. I sat in on the con call earlier today:

Chevrolet Bolt EV To Be Developed Through Strategic Partnership Between GM And LG -- DETROIT, Oct. 20, 2015 /PRNewswire/ --

They are still saying "200 miles plus" range but they were hinting on the call that people would be "pleasantly surprised."