Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[AlMc]

Q3ER/CC just announced to be Tues Nov 3

 

[ludicrousspeed]

Q3ER/CC just announced to be Tues Nov 3

Can't wait. This is pretty early for Tesla, as they normally do the ER around the 6-8th of the month following quarter end. Hopefully this means they will have some Signature X deliveries very soon

 

[hockeythug]

Should be an interesting conference call if they still haven't delivered a single non founder X by then.

 

[MitchJi]

PALO ALTO, CA--(Marketwired - Oct 19, 2015) - Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) announces that it will post its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2015, after market close on Tuesday, November 3, 2015. At that time, Tesla will issue a brief advisory release containing a link to the Q3 2015 Shareholder Letter, available on the company website. Tesla management will hold a live question & answer webcast at 2:30pm Pacific Time (5:30pm Eastern Time) to discuss the Company's financial and business results and outlook.

 

[chickensevil]

O.k., my bad. Wasn´t aware of the partnership. Then it does make sense!

If it were to be a major player (Any company who controls more than 5% of the market), and it being a European company, while not being German... I would bet money on it being Renault. Granted they didn't say it was a major company, so it could just as easily be some 100k a year company (or less).

Just for kicks here are all the current manufacturers in Western Europe (with Country) If I left something out it was either on purpose because they are so small time that it likely isn't even worth mentioning, or because I didn't realize they exist (in which case, sorry)
France:
PSA Peugeot Citroen: This is interesting because as of 2012 they were the second-largest in Europe and the 9th-largest globally - Haven't heard anything on their EV front, so this is possible
Renault-Nissan: as mentioned previously, this would totally make sense given their focus of going EV and being an early adopter. Chademo is limited, and if they want to take it to the next level, joining with Tesla royalty free over spending millions developing their own standard would make sense on many levels.

Germany: Already off the table, due to comments, but thought I would list them
BMW
Mercedes-Benz
Volkswagen Group (Includes Audi, Porsche, etc)

Italian Manufacturers:
Fiat: You know, this is actually the parent company now... So this covers Chrysler as well. But in any case, their CEO thinks EVs are stupid, so not likely...
Pagani: While independant, has a working relationship with MB (German ties, so I think that disqualifies them), plus they are exotic small time makers so not likely...
Some others that I feel are too small time to even see the light of day...

Sweden:
Koenigsegg: Not sure it deserves a mention, but not likely given their hypercar focus of the company...
NEVS: They bought the remains of SAAB, and given their electric name, maybe... just maybe... they could come out of left field to join Tesla in the EV fight?
Volvo: Again, not sure why noone has mentioned them yet... Maybe because they are mostly Chinese owned now? In any case, it is still technically a Swedish company. Given China's push to EV's this company could fit the profile.

UK:
Aston Martin - They currently have ties with MB, but their largest shareholder is Prestige Motor Holdings and they are based in UK, so I suppose this would fit. Still a small company, so I'm not holding my breath.
Jaguar Land Rover - Owned by Tata Motors, Only mentioning because they are a bit separated, either way, I would think if Tesla was doing something it would be with Tata, which would be Chinese by mention (not European), and would be surprising since Warren Buffet owns a lot of Tata and has not looked favorably on Tesla.
Lotus - Owned by a Malaysian Company (Proton), mentioned largely because of their previous relationship with Tesla. Not holding my breath here either

That's pretty much the major selections I could come up with sifting through manufacturers. So my final lineup of possible companies would be (in no particular order): PSA Peugeot Citroen, Renault-Nissan, NEVS (SAAB), and Volvo

Edit: Extra thought, it was interesting to me how many companies are owned by someone else. It is sad that you can boil down the auto industry to probably around 10-15 companies total, with the rest being super small time (like less than 10,000 cars).

 

[FredTMC]

Should be an interesting conference call if they still haven't delivered a single non founder X by then.

That would be bad... I gotta believe they'll be into signature production by then. I was shocked we didn't hear of production last week

 

[FANGO]

PSA Peugeot Citroen: This is interesting because as of 2012 they were the second-largest in Europe and the 9th-largest globally - Haven't heard anything on their EV front, so this is possible

Peugeot Citroen sells a rebadged Mitsubishi iMiEV as the "Citroen C-Zero" and "Peugeot iOn." A few years ago when a Tesla Roadster owner drove his car around the world, he was racing against two Citroen engineers in a C-Zero.

the first around the world electric car race - 80 electric days - world round trip

 

[Johan]

Peugeot Citroen sells a rebadged Mitsubishi iMiEV as the "Citroen C-Zero" and "Peugeot iOn." A few years ago when a Tesla Roadster owner drove his car around the world, he was racing against two Citroen engineers in a C-Zero.

the first around the world electric car race - 80 electric days - world round trip

In Norway the iMiev/C-Zero/iOn go by the term "triplets"

Neither Peugot nor Citroen has followed up on their EV venture though, so hard to se how they would benefit from partnering in the SC network (the triplets have tiny batteries and will not benefit from SC).

 

[replicant]

PSA Peugeot Citroen: This is interesting because as of 2012 they were the second-largest in Europe and the 9th-largest globally - Haven't heard anything on their EV front, so this is possible
Renault-Nissan: as mentioned previously, this would totally make sense given their focus of going EV and being an early adopter. Chademo is limited, and if they want to take it to the next level, joining with Tesla royalty free over spending millions developing their own standard would make sense on many levels.

I'd be surprised to hear it's PSA: the group has invested little in EVs compared to Renault-Nissan (i.e peanuts). Still, both Renault and PSA have partnered with Blue Solutions (a Bolloré subsidiary) for small EVs and car sharing. Blue Solutions operates 6000 charging stalls in Paris (Autolib program) and will build 16000 more in France by 2019.

The Renault ZOE EV is selling quite well: I see around 10 Autolibs for 1 ZOE and 10 ZOEs for 1 Model S in Paris. Nissan is working on a 250+ miles EV according the Ghosn (CEO of Renault and Nissan). I guess the Alliance is trying to secure access to growing charging networks and, as a bonus, associate itself with the Tesla brand.

Also, I don't know what to make of the last sentence of this recent article: "All of this new technology will also balloon R&D budgets, leading Ghosn to conclude that more consolidation is in store for the industry. While he didn’t discuss any specific plans at Renault Nissan, he claimed the “smaller players” may soon need to partner with larger companies to survive."

 

[hobbes]

Note, I am only assuming hypothetically that Volvo is the interested party.

Looks like someone didn´t read the whole thread . Or does hypothetically not count as a mention?

Volvo: Again, not sure why noone has mentioned them yet... Maybe because they are mostly Chinese owned now? In any case, it is still technically a Swedish company. Given China's push to EV's this company could fit the profile.

Also, Tesla is supposedly involved in developing the Chinese charging standard, so there could be another connection. Volvo is owned by the Chinese Geely group, their EV program hasn´t exactly been in the news though. So I think Renault/Nissan would make the most sense after all. I don´t think a company just starting with EVs would invest much in charging infrastructure.

 

[Johan]

It's likely Renault (Nissan). Not many others that would make sense, except maybe VW (but it's supposed to be a non-German manufacturer).

 

[mrdoubleb]

Some interesting data from Automotive Industry Data (AID) in the Forbes article you guys see at the top of the Yahoo feed on the right.

In the first nine months of 2015, Tesla Model S sales of 10,600 in Western Europe exceeded the outgoing BMW 7 Series with 2,650 and the soon to be replaced Audi A8 limousine with 4,700. The Model S was only 800 sales short of the Mercedes S class, compared with a shortfall of 6,200 in the same period last year, AID said.

But now Tesla’s success has grown across the board with sales of over a 1,000 in the Netherlands, Switzerland and Germany, followed by sales of between 500 and 850 in markets like Britain, France, Belgium, Sweden and Denmark

Not really shocking to us given the wonderful European Sales wiki the guys do on TMC, but still feels good to see this message picked up by the media.

 

[replicant]

The COP21 (2015 Paris Climate conference - context) will take place on Dec 7-8.

Will auto-manufacturers take the opportunity to announce some EV plans?

NB: 20% of the UN conference cost is paid by private corporations (source). BMW is an official sponsor and Renault-Nissan will provide 200 EVs + 50 chargers.

 

[MitchJi]

What Will Tesla Drivers Do Behind the Wheel with Autopilot Engaged? | MIT Technology Review

advanced automated driving technology available in any commercial vehicle. The new feature, called Autopilot, was made available through the latest software patch for its Model S, and it will take the wheel (and the pedals) at highway speeds, even changing lanes automatically when the turn signal is activated. You can watch a video of it in action here.

Automotive writers have gushed about how well it works, and it certainly burnishes the image of Tesla as technology pioneer. But it’s worth remembering that this level of automation can be problematic, and can lead to some troubling behavior—both deliberate and unintentional.

As my colleague Tom Simonite reported last year, Google’s experiments with giving self-driving cars to its employees resulted in such blasé behavior (including one driver reaching into the backseat to grab a laptop) that the company decided to change its approach to automation completely (see “Lazy Humans Shaped Google’s New Autonomous Car”).
...

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[FANGO]

The COP21 (2015 Paris Climate conference - context) will take place on Dec 7-8.

Will auto-manufacturers take the opportunity to announce some EV plans?
View attachment 98529

NB: 20% of the UN conference cost is paid by private corporations (source). BMW is an official sponsor and Renault-Nissan will provide 200 EVs + 50 chargers.

This is what I'm hoping will happen - Citigroup Predicts $100 Trillion In Stranded Assets If Paris Summit Succeeds

Though realistically every time we've had one of these big climate conferences we've only ever gotten promises and minor change out of them. I'm real tired of hearing "revert to 1990 levels by 2050" or whatever nonsense.

edit: for more background on why these stranded assets are necessary for our survival as a species, read Bill McKibben's excellent article "Global Warming's Terrifying New Math."

Global Warming's Terrifying New Math | Rolling Stone

Basically, in order to keep the world from spiraling into a mass extinction event, we need to figure out a way to keep oil in the ground which has already been found and bought by corporations who are banking on being able to take it out of the ground and sell it. And that's just to stay under +2ºC, which increasingly looks like it's too dangerous of a target anyway and that we need to keep ourselves below even that.

 

[Scott Ales]

This is what I'm hoping will happen - Citigroup Predicts $100 Trillion In Stranded Assets If Paris Summit Succeeds

Though realistically every time we've had one of these big climate conferences we've only ever gotten promises and minor change out of them. I'm real tired of hearing "revert to 1990 levels by 2050" or whatever nonsense.

Most folks in these positions have little fortitude. They are largely followers. If the money starts moving that way more will jump on board.

Weak sticks in my opinion.

 

[chickensevil]

It's likely Renault (Nissan). Not many others that would make sense, except maybe VW (but it's supposed to be a non-German manufacturer).

Agreed, and I appreciate everyone's input on the subject, I just thought it would be worth listing out all the major companies to ensure we weren't overlooking some random surprise if it isn't Renault that is the winner.

Looks like someone didn´t read the whole thread . Or does hypothetically not count as a mention?

Also, Tesla is supposedly involved in developing the Chinese charging standard, so there could be another connection. Volvo is owned by the Chinese Geely group, their EV program hasn´t exactly been in the news though. So I think Renault/Nissan would make the most sense after all. I don´t think a company just starting with EVs would invest much in charging infrastructure.

Nope doesn't count, Alas I read that this morning, and even responded to it... must have spaced out when I was writing up on the different car makers.

The response I would give on both Volvo and just starting out, why wouldn't they look to have fast charging out the gate? This isn't 2008 anymore, fast charging is pretty much a must have feature if you want your car to be marketable. I'm not saying that this makes it any more likely that this is the choice, but just something to consider. And if someone is joining Tesla, they will have at least seen the light as far as both needing to get smart coverage of charging for road trip purposes and needing to stick >100kW of power into the car in one shot. If you were late to the party, wouldn't you have taken the time to look around and see what was working and what wasn't to ensure that your entry makes a big enough splash so you don't miss the boat?

Again, not saying that I am leaning toward Volvo being the choice here, just trying to help think this through to all degrees to make sure we aren't missing something.

 

[Johan]

I agree chicken, Volvo is the most likely dark horse here. They have some really nice EV tech going, but they are hedging heavily with hybrids in the same way BMW are - just too scared to take the leap just yet, watching everyone one else to see if someone else will jump first.

That said the C30 concept EV is a fully fledged, very nice BEV with a smallish 24kWh battery (could change if they got serious) but alas - no fast charging. If you want to put a positive spin on the no fast charging fact you could say they haven't locked on to neither Chademo nor the Frankenplug, but instead they could just elongate the socket of the Mennekes type 2 inlet (which is there for slow AC charging) and wire + program the car to accept input from a Supercharger.

Also the production model XC90 T8 plug in hybrid is showing some very capable engineering EV wise, despite the fact it's lugging around that big ICE.

 

[Lessmog]

Agreed, and I appreciate everyone's input on the subject, I just thought it would be worth listing out all the major companies to ensure we weren't overlooking some random surprise if it isn't Renault that is the winner.



Nope doesn't count, Alas I read that this morning, and even responded to it... must have spaced out when I was writing up on the different car makers.

The response I would give on both Volvo and just starting out, why wouldn't they look to have fast charging out the gate? This isn't 2008 anymore, fast charging is pretty much a must have feature if you want your car to be marketable. I'm not saying that this makes it any more likely that this is the choice, but just something to consider. And if someone is joining Tesla, they will have at least seen the light as far as both needing to get smart coverage of charging for road trip purposes and needing to stick >100kW of power into the car in one shot. If you were late to the party, wouldn't you have taken the time to look around and see what was working and what wasn't to ensure that your entry makes a big enough splash so you don't miss the boat?

Again, not saying that I am leaning toward Volvo being the choice here, just trying to help think this through to all degrees to make sure we aren't missing something.

1.The bigger splash will occur when a big company does miss the boat, yes? :wink:
2. Let's not forget that Volvo has some pretty amazing engineers too. Now I'm not certain if they are in the exact same company, but I believe Volvo recently launched a fully electric city bus in Gothenburg, running regular trafficacross the river between two campuses of Chalmers Tech Uni and with at least one terminal indoors! So I wouldn't rule out Volvo here just yet, either.

 

[Causalien]

1.The bigger splash will occur when a big company does miss the boat, yes? :wink:
2. Let's not forget that Volvo has some pretty amazing engineers too. Now I'm not certain if they are in the exact same company, but I believe Volvo recently launched a fully electric city bus in Gothenburg, running regular trafficacross the river between two campuses of Chalmers Tech Uni and with at least one terminal indoors! So I wouldn't rule out Volvo here just yet, either.

So sweet. 7 years ahead of competitions and growing. Barring seppuku, TSLA is set.