Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[winfield100]

....Wait till they finally announce the other manufacturer who will be using the Supercharger system. That will be a wild ride too!

will the other company just be using the SC network, or also actively building it out...?after 1 joins/falls, will there be a rush of others?

 

[Cattledog]

There are a few other dynamics happening which I have experienced many times throughout the years in the industry.

Traditional New model launch,
* Model becomes stale and discounts drive buyers to the dealers so they can sell old versions
* New model arrives and there is immediate demand BUT, the last time they check on the older model it was heavily discounted. The new version is sticker price only which is a significant disparity.
* Many pass on the new model and buy the left over heavy discounted models until they are gone.
* With no leftovers new the buyers turn to 6 month to 1 year old used cars instead of the new model at sticker.
* Used 1-2 year old car actually go UP in value because of demand. It is a short window and prices fall hard as soon as the new car becomes old.

Tesla Autopilot / Model X release,
* With no discounts buyers wait for Model X and AP release.
* Both Model X and Autopilot reviews are strong, knowledge of demand becomes well known. Order today? Get your Model X next year!
* Why wait mentality is stimulated by AP release. I can have AP now, I don't have to wait till next year. Let's get a Model S.
* Wait! Maybe there is a used Model S 2015 out there? WRONG! Consumer Reports says 98% of Tesla buyers said they will buy another one. There not selling or trading.
* Can't find a used one so, buy a CPO or Demo instantly today with AP. No wait.
* Tesla constantly updates your car for free! No other company has EVER offered an ownership experience like this. What do I care if the body is 4 years old, the functionality, safety, and technology are renewed several times a year.

We already know the many ways buying a Tesla and driving it are unique. Add this to the mix now. There are compounding and very compelling reasons for this company and its products to shatter the industry. Looking at this company through the Lutz glasses will be to your demise. You can't value it or rate it like any other auto company. They are not even remotely comparable. This is why we are managing huge fluctuations on the short term. What I like about it is the ultimate benefit we have for better understanding the foundation and fundamentals of the company than most. It has at least provided me the comfort to stay the course even when I'm stuck in a six figure dip!

Wait till they finally announce the other manufacturer who will be using the Supercharger system. That will be a wild ride too!

I have had growing confidence for a few months that the release of the Model X would drive thousands (not sure if its 1s or 10s) of people to Model S (yes, S) because they were on the fence waiting to see what the X would be. Some are Model X res holders but I know many will not have been. Couple the reveal of the unknown with the wait time for X and the autopilot roll out and I think Tesla has taken care of demand for 2016. Hopefully production's there too. If they guide to 50K at Q3 earnings and then hit it, I think we'll have seen the lows absent a macro event. If they don't, I we may do a dip and then take off as around March/April with Model 3 reveal, Gigafactory online, Q1 production numbers of >18K, accelerating Model X in the wild stories, etc.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Elon Musk said this during his recent trip to Europe.
It is a European manufacturer and he ruled out a German one.

Question: could it be a company like Fastned?

 

[JRP3]

Looking at this company through the Lutz glasses will be to your demise.

Great phrase :biggrin:

 

[Cattledog]

Elon Musk said this during his recent trip to Europe.
It is a European manufacturer and he ruled out a German one.

Question: could it be a company like Fastned?

It would be great if it were Renault-Nissan. With the VW debacle they may end up being the 3rd largest automaker pretty soon. It would also be nice if they refreshed their Leaf battery tech so it coordinated with the superchargers.

 

[chickensevil]

Elon Musk said this during his recent trip to Europe.
It is a European manufacturer and he ruled out a German one.

Question: could it be a company like Fastned?

I would assume he was referring to a car marker, but maybe that is a false assumption?

I was thinking of some uk car company, or maybe the Italians, neither would be a big win for Tesla like Renault would be our even one of the German ones. But you have to start somewhere.

 

[Scott Ales]

Is this speculation on your part or do you have actual info that another manufacturer will use Tesla's technology (and thus SC network)? I'm not trying to get the source of your information or even what information you have. I'm just wondering if you do have actual information on this because I have not understood for the life of me why some other manufacturer hasn't used a Tesla power train in a car (ie, Ford and the Fusion would be a great opportunity for Ford).

But, at this point, with Tesla so close to launching the 3, I wouldn't do crap with another manufacturer. Let them build their own charging network at this point. Any car the other manufacturers make will just take sales from Tesla. No thank you at this point. It's too late.

It is quoted in numerous places online.


Tesla in collaboration to share Supercharger network. - Free Online Library

 

[hobbes]

Is this speculation on your part or do you have actual info that another manufacturer will use Tesla's technology (and thus SC network)?

Here´s the original source: - Sigmar Gabriel im Gespräch mit Elon Musk (Originalton) - YouTube

 

[MikeC]

I don't recall seeing this posted on TMC. Wide-ranging interview of both Elon and Sam Altman, president of Y Combinator, from 10/8/15.

Elon Musk and Y Combinator President on Thinking for the Future - FULL CONVERSATION - YouTube

 

[ev-enthusiast]

I would assume he was referring to a car marker, but maybe that is a false assumption?

I was thinking of some uk car company, or maybe the Italians, neither would be a big win for Tesla like Renault would be our even one of the German ones. But you have to start somewhere.

Exactly, I thought about only car manufacturers too!

My top three are currently:
1. Mercedes (because they did projects together, Tesla Motors producing B-class powertrain and they could have adapted charging technology)
2. Fastnet (because that is a young start up company that might be willing to adapt their charging technology to SuperCharger tech and Fastned has as much momentum as Tesla Motors (while being a lot smaller))
3. Nissan Motors (because Carlos Ghosn is very serious about BEV, Nissan recently changed their Leaf battery and best selling EV is still the Nissan Leaf)

My expectation is that we will get this quizz resolved the next days/weeks

In any case we will get some more free advertising from that

 

[Newb]

@ev-enthusiast: Elon has ruled out German manufacturers in the same statement, if I remember correctly. My bet is on Aston Martin.

Back to short-term price movements: TSLA is up about 0.7% in Germany despite currency values unchanged (-0.01% atm).

Fair weather at German (+0.68%) and European stock exchange (+0.47%), too.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

@ev-enthusiast: Elon has ruled out German manufacturers in the same statement, if I remember correctly. My bet is on Aston Martin.

Back to short-term price movements: TSLA is up about 0.7% in Germany despite currency values unchanged (-0.01% atm).

Fair weather at German (+0.68%) and European stock exchange (+0.47%), too.

Thank's for pointing out, Mercedes will not be possible!

 

[Scott Ales]

Exactly, I thought about only car manufacturers too!

My top three are currently:
1. Mercedes (because they did projects together, Tesla Motors producing B-class powertrain and they could have adapted charging technology)
2. Fastnet (because that is a young start up company that might be willing to adapt their charging technology to SuperCharger tech and Fastned has as much momentum as Tesla Motors (while being a lot smaller))
3. Nissan Motors (because Carlos Ghosn is very serious about BEV, Nissan recently changed their Leaf battery and best selling EV is still the Nissan Leaf)

My expectation is that we will get this quizz resolved the next days/weeks

In any case we will get some more free advertising from that

Think about the other angle of advertising though. What ever company it turns out to be they will certainly have a traditional advertising and marketing department. You can be sure they will promote the Supercharger system in their routine campaigns. Tesla receives the exposure and pays nothing for it!

 

[jhm]

Think about the other angle of advertising though. What ever company it turns out to be they will certainly have a traditional advertising and marketing department. You can be sure they will promote the Supercharger system in their routine campaigns. Tesla receives the exposure and pays nothing for it!

This depends in part on how this Supercharger Partner wants to brand its Superchargers. Suppose this partner is Volvo. Volvo may participate by setting up and maintaining a numbers of Volvo branded Superchargers in proportion to its electric fleet with access. So both Volvo and Tesla cars can use the same Superchargers whether they are branded with Tesla or Volvo.

The functionality and access would be shared. So owners of either brand vehicle would benefit, but when it comes to marketing and advertising, Volvo and its dealers would emphasize its own brand.

Of course, another subtle benefit to a partner would be association with the Tesla brand itself. If consumers associated the Volvo brand with Tesla and Supercharging, this could elevate the Volvo brand. Certainly it would encourage cross shopping such that any potential buyer who found value in access to the Supercharger network would naturally consider both Tesla and Volvo EVs. So potential partners need to weight the options of beating Tesla versus joining Tesla. This may be why German automakers are not in serious consideration at this point, as they may still be harboring illusions of beating Tesla someday. But as the Tesla brand and Supercharger Network advances, automakers may conclude that it is better to join with Tesla than to be beaten by Tesla. I suspect that for many automakers the branding issues around becoming a Supercharger Partner are the stickier issues than anything relating to technology or economics.

Note, I am only assuming hypothetically that Volvo is the interested party. I do not know this to be the case.

 

[chickensevil]

This depends in part on how this Supercharger Partner wants to brand its Superchargers. Suppose this partner is Volvo. Volvo may participate by setting up and maintaining a numbers of Volvo branded Superchargers in proportion to its electric fleet with access. So both Volvo and Tesla cars can use the same Superchargers whether they are branded with Tesla or Volvo.

The functionality and access would be shared. So owners of either brand vehicle would benefit, but when it comes to marketing and advertising, Volvo and its dealers would emphasize its own brand.

Of course, another subtle benefit to a partner would be association with the Tesla brand itself. If consumers associated the Volvo brand with Tesla and Supercharging, this could elevate the Volvo brand. Certainly it would encourage cross shopping such that any potential buyer who found value in access to the Supercharger network would naturally consider both Tesla and Volvo EVs. So potential partners need to weight the options of beating Tesla versus joining Tesla. This may be why German automakers are not in serious consideration at this point, as they may still be harboring illusions of beating Tesla someday. But as the Tesla brand and Supercharger Network advances, automakers may conclude that it is better to join with Tesla than to be beaten by Tesla. I suspect that for many automakers the branding issues around becoming a Supercharger Partner are the stickier issues than anything relating to technology or economics.

Note, I am only assuming hypothetically that Volvo is the interested party. I do not know this to be the case.

This also has the reverse affect of course, in that it further validates Tesla as the market leader. Giant Volvo (for example) joining forces with little ole Tesla because they couldn't do it themselves? Maybe I should check out this little company and their offerings? Not that you were suggesting this wouldn't happen, it just bears pointing out. There are still a lot of people who either have never heard of Tesla or know very little about the company. I stop for coffee most mornings on my way to work, and the people who are awake enough to notice the car, tend to be all like, "that's a nice car, what is it?", "It's a Tesla... Model S", "Who makes it?", "... Tesla." (yes most of my conversations still start out like this), and I am only 5 miles from a Supercharger station, and around 30 miles away from the nearest store!

 

[Buddyroe]

Note, I am only assuming hypothetically that Volvo is the interested party. I do not know this to be the case.

So you're saying it's Volvo. Sweet!

:biggrin:

 

[hobbes]

Exactly, I thought about only car manufacturers too!

My top three are currently:
1. Mercedes (because they did projects together, Tesla Motors producing B-class powertrain and they could have adapted charging technology)
2. Fastnet (because that is a young start up company that might be willing to adapt their charging technology to SuperCharger tech and Fastned has as much momentum as Tesla Motors (while being a lot smaller))
3. Nissan Motors (because Carlos Ghosn is very serious about BEV, Nissan recently changed their Leaf battery and best selling EV is still the Nissan Leaf)

Come on - Elon said it is a European, but not a German car maker. Mercedes is German, Fastned is not a car maker (just offers charging), and Nissan is not European !

 

[replicant]

Come on - Elon said it is a European, but not a German car maker. Mercedes is German, Fastned is not a car maker (just offers charging), and Nissan is not European !

Wikipedia:

Renault–Nissan Alliance is a Franco-Japanese strategic partnership between automobile manufacturers Renault, based in Paris, France, and Nissan, based in Yokohama, Japan, which together sell more than one in 10 cars worldwide. The companies, which have been strategic partners since 1999, have nearly 450,000 employees and control eight major brands: Infiniti, Renault Samsung Motors, Dacia, Datsun, Venucia and Lada, as well as Renault and Nissan themselves. The car group sold 8.3 million cars worldwide in 2013, behind Toyota, General Motors, and Volkswagen for total volume.

The Alliance is the world's leading plug-in electric vehicle manufacturer, with global sales of over 250,000 electric vehicles delivered by early June 2015. The top selling vehicle of the Alliance line-up is the Nissan Leaf all-electric car, with more than 192,000 units sold by September 2015. The Leaf is the world's all-time top selling highway-capable plug-in electric car in history.

 

[hobbes]

Wikipedia: Renault–Nissan Alliance is a Franco-Japanese strategic partnership between automobile manufacturers Renault, based in Paris, France, and Nissan, based in Yokohama, Japan, which together sell more than one in 10 cars worldwide.

O.k., my bad. Wasn´t aware of the partnership. Then it does make sense!

 

[abasile]

Tesla having one or more Supercharger partners will be very beneficial to both shareholders and potential buyers, as it will further improve confidence in the long term viability of the network. In other words, this will reduce the temptation to think that Tesla might not be able to support the network over the long haul. It also improves the likelihood of third parties choosing to deploy their own Superchargers, perhaps to fill gaps in the main network and/or to draw customers to particular establishments. So I am eager to hear more on this front.