emupilot
Active Member
The first three months the MX is available to the public will most-likely be followed by great reviews, since most outside of the Tesla community aren't really aware of how great of a car it is. I'm optimistic Tesla will beat delivery guidance for Q3 and the 50K yearly guidance. There will be much more hype around the Model 3 reveal in March and Gigafactory opening in April as the time approaches. Also, a lot of good news that comes out about Tesla is unexpected and can't be predicted months in advance. I can see TSLA's stock much higher than today's levels after the Gigafactory opening, which will eliminate a ton of doubt. Of course, I'm not sure if you would consider this time horizon "short-term."
We'll know how the production rate is going the first week in October when Tesla reveals their Q3 results, but I see a greater likelihood of missing their annual target (<50,000) than exceeding it (>55,000). I am quite bullish about 2016Q1 and 2016Q2, but until then I see the uncertainty of production and cash flow being the dominant story of TSLA after Model X excitement wears off. Your mileage may vary.