Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[Johann Koeber]

Inspection gate is going to be one of those SHTF moment that everyone realizes too late. The question is, will the government be willing to see the automakers go bankrupt and risk all the tax paying workers. In Germany, no. In USA, they will want to eliminate European competitors.

Remember the government of Lower Saxony owns a significant share of VW stock and a controlling stock.


No, Tesla will not be able to purchase VW.

 

[mejojo]

OK...I haven't seen anyone discussing this, but....

how will the (fairly likely) government shutdown impact $TSLA during X reveal week? I can't help but believe the macro results will negatively impact what should have been a great week.

Thoughts?

 

[doggusfluffy]

Jamie Lee Curtis Tesla tale definitely goes to 11 | Entertain This!

“I said to the guy, ‘The volume control goes to 11?’ He said, ‘Yes. (CEO Elon) Musk is a fan of a certain movie,’ ” she remembers. “So, Chris is sitting in the car and the guy doesn’t know it’s Chris. And I looked over to Chris and I was like, ‘Really? That’s crazy.’ ”

 

[mrdoubleb]

Vaporware du jour, apple will never manufacture a car, just my opinion.

however I would worry about a Netflix car.

I wouldn't. It surely has geobanning as a standard feature:"we are sorry, the car you've requested is not available in your region".

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Ok, after the first news about #emmissiongate #exhaustgate out last Friday this is day 5 and Volkswagen / Audi again scoring full points, at least in Germany.

First headline in German news papers like Sueddeutsche:

This issue is on air at every radio station this morning, e.g. BR2 (Google translate):

Conversation with Dorothee Saar, German Environmental Aid, to test the automotive industry /
Comment by Gabriel Wirth, BR to VW

This issue is all over the place in German television (link), Google translate:

Obviously scandal exhaust values US judiciary is investigating VW
One thing is already clear: The scandal over manipulated exhaust emissions VW will be costly.
The stock has slumped dramatically, also threaten collective action and a penalty billion.
And the US Department of Justice now apparently concerned with the scandal.

Volkswagen Americas Boss Michael Horn on exhaust gas affair (Google translate):

We will pay what we have to pay.

Now there is a jurisdictal investigation at least in the US (Google translate):

In the scandal over manipulated exhaust emissions, Volkswagen has apparently fearing criminal prosecution. American environmental authorities are expanding their investigations.

This thing just keeps exploding.


Vaporware du jour, Netflix will never manufacture a car, just my opinion.

However I would worry about a Samsung car.

 

[bh1783]

Samsung has been making cars since 1998. They went bankrupt and sold their operations to Renault.
http://www.renaultsamsungm.com/vehicles/nsm3/main.jsp

 

[RobStark]

Remember the government of Lower Saxony owns a significant share of VW stock and a controlling stock.

Lower Saxony owns 20.2 of Volkswagen Group giving it veto power over major decisions.

Not exactly "controlling stock". Lower Saxony can not allocate budgets and execute future product plans.

 

[mrdoubleb]

One more quick update on Volkswagen (VOW): the stock went down another 18-19% this morning. Last Friday the stock has closed at 161 EUR per share, while the lowest today was 105 EUR. Ouch.

In other news, Yahoo finance predicts Wall street will open lower today - TSLA is down 1% so far in pre-market. I can live with that - hope it does not turn into a big selloff though.

 

[jhm]

Yesterday morning as I drove to work, a woman pulled up next to me and rolled down her window. She was excited to tell me how much she liked my Model S and thought highly of Tesla as a company. I thanked her, and looking at her VW Beetle, I added that I was very sorry about what has happened to Volkswagen. She immediately looked worried and asked me what happened. My lane was starting to move, and I wasn't quite sure what to say. I grimaced and said, "Fraud, big fraud...Sorry I've got to good." I felt very sorry to have upset her, and I do hope that she has checked the news to understand what I was talking about.

We haven't really seen the consumer reaction to this. Its going to be horrible.

 

[Thelurker]

VW admits they have the cheat software in 11 millon cars!

Its top story in media here in Norway. VW press release is out... Maybe someome can find... I have just seen some of it in norwegian.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

I wonder if the timing was a coincidence.


http://m.investing.com/news/stock-m...er-potential-air-bag-defect:-regulator-361418

http://m.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/suzuki-says-to-buy-back-volkswagen-stake-for-up-to-$3.9-billion-361751

 

[Thelurker]

VOLKSWAGEN AG HAS ISSUED THE FOLLOWING STATEMENT: : Volkswagen US Media Newsroom

 

[ev-enthusiast]

VW admits they have the cheat software in 11 millon cars!

Really, I thought this is still rumour?!

This is #exhaustgate #emmissiongate #supernova for Volkswagen and Audi.
Do other car manufacturers already join the party?

This thing just keeps exploding!

Update: Got it, no more rumor, now fact. Thank's Thelurker for posting the official Volkswagen/Audi press release:

Discrepancies relate to vehicles with Type EA 189 engines, involving some eleven million vehicles worldwide. A noticeable deviation between bench test results and actual road use was established solely for this type of engine. Volkswagen is working intensely to eliminate these deviations through technical measures. The company is therefore in contact with the relevant authorities and the German Federal Motor Transport Authority (KBA – Kraftfahrtbundesamt).
To cover the necessary service measures and other efforts to win back the trust of our customers, Volkswagen plans to set aside a provision of some 6.5 billion EUR recognized in the profit and loss statement in the third quarter of the current fiscal year. Due to the ongoing investigations the amounts estimated may be subject to revaluation.Earnings targets for the Group for 2015 will be adjusted accordingly.

Update2:
Switzerland joining #exhaustgate #emmissiongate investigations and tests all VW/Audi diesel engines as soon as possible.

Update3:
Issues arise in Germany and Europe as authorities state that emmissions are up to 6 fold the permitted emmissions (link, google translate):

Not only in the US push diesel engines far more pollutants than permitted. According to a paper of the federal government new models exceed the current limits in part by six times. Brussels calls for drastic countermeasures.

EU Commission warned Germany that emmissions exceded their limits in 29 cities in Germany this year!
EU Commission warned Germany that it could last till 2020 to reduce the emmissions to their corresponding limits, EU proposing ban on driving of the corresponding vehicles or higher taxes for the corresponding vehicles.

BTW there have been continous media reports during the last years that during summer emmissions excede the limits in cities like Stuttgart and Munich again and again. We are currently learning why. This is getting really ridiculous. They fooled the society, simply everybody. This is bad.

Vaporware du jour, Samsung will never manufacture a car, just my opinion.

However I would worry about a Huawei car.

 

[Drax7]

Sad to see a dinosaur struggle to remain relevant.

He is perfectly capable of understanding, but has a strong bias against tesla.

Its unfortunate that CNBC keeps asking him to opine his misinformation.

- - - Updated - - -

This insight about the dealer middlemen is important. I would put things more strongly - the next piece of the auto industry to be disrupted won't be the manufacturers - it will be the dealers (with a high likelihood that the dealers will take down 1 or more manufacturers with them). Outside of Tesla, the manufacturers and the dealers exist in a value network. The important element that I see in that value network is that you and I aren't the customers of the manufacturers - we're the consumers of their product, but their customer are the dealers.

And thus the dealers must be satisfied customers of what the manufacturers are selling, or they won't sell it on to us, the consumers. That provides, in a sense, a mixed message for the manufacturers. Consumers tell them they want to be electric and their customers tell them that electric cars don't sell. Without Tesla around, there would be nobody to naysay the dealers.

I encourage everybody interested in this dynamic to be reading Innovator's Dilemma and Innovator's Solution. I've promised previously and will reiterate that promise now to more fully develop the idea really soon now(tm).

Thank you great insight.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Update on German auto stocks dragging down the DAX today:
Volkswagen down currently about 20% (link).
Porsche down currently about 17% (link).
Daimler down currently about 6% (link).
Continental down currently about 4% (link).
BMW down currently about 5% (link).
Audi down currently about 13% (link).

Volkswagen below yesterdays support.
Not far away from 100EUR.

I expect a lot of volatility today as bulls and bears try to spin all news in their favor.
Please stick to the reality everybody.
Thank's.

 

[techmaven]

This might mark the end of diesel for passenger cars. A significant percentage of European automakers make diesel cars.

This might actually spur the movement to EVs even faster than Tesla has alone. Note that VW/Audi has known they were caught a year ago... and has managed to stall the regulators until now by repeatedly disputing the lab results. This wasn't a mistake but a pattern of willful deception. There should be criminal prosecution. The number of actual deaths is likely higher than the GM ignition case. Interestingly enough, the Audi and Porsche BEV announcements in the past week and few months can be now seen in the light that the upper management of Audi/Bentley/Bugatti/Lamborghini/Porsche/SEAT/Skoda/Volkswagen knowing that this news was about to break into the public sphere. This might cause a green light for BEV projects that were on hold - they may have no choice in the matter now, as diesel will be untenable.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Wouldn't it make a lot of sense for Porsche, Volkswagen, and perhaps the German government to buy a large stake in Tesla Motors?

Europe is overly exposed to Diesel vehicles. Also, any downsizing by VW, Audi, Porsche, or others will negatively effect the German economy.

Investing in Tesla, would seem like a much better idea than investing billions of dollars in alternative technology that might not work. This mess will probably either force VW to refocus its entire business model, or force VW to partner with or invest in another company.

Does anyone see a different realistic scenario?

Isn't Elon a guest/speaker/participant at an event on the 26th?

 

[FANGO]

Absolutely we need criminal prosecutions. They are literally killing people intentionally. That is murder. Prosecute.

 

[Lessmog]

This fraud makes me very angry. I had to buy a sticker for 30 Eur in order to be allowed to take my non-diesel Saab into Berlin this year, only because of a German (and EU?) law for protection against fine dust emissions from diesels. I'd like my money back, please.

But that's not the worst of it, of course.

So, VW Group might buy into TSLA - but with what money? If they sold their own shares before this crisis it looks like insider trading. If not, how can they afford to?

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Found it.

September 24th - Elon Musk is speaking at a BMW event in Berlin, with Sigmar Gabriel (German Minister for Economic Affairs, and Energy)

Wirtschaft für morgen

September 25th - Rumor has it Elon Musk will be speaking at Teslaworld in Belgium.

September 26th - Elon Musk will meet with India's prime minister, Narenda Modi.

September 26th - New information about a Massachussets Carbon tax.