Citizen-T
Active Member
Part of me still thinks that the market is going to want to decide the ATH based on the ER. I still think that a run up to the ATH ahead of earnings makes sense. Though, hard to trust my gut on day like this.
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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I agree. I've learned that guts mean nothing when they are all over the floor lol. I also want that X studio... I been on the X forums watching it like a hawk-- really checking how quiet Bonnie is.
jhm
Well-Known Member
I think weak hands were hoping for an ATH prior to ER. That became unlikely to happen so they are pulling out of the trade. As weak hands, they have no confidence in Tesla to deliver quarterly results. So they've got to get out before ER. If we are now left in strong hands, they rest of the week should recover.
Krugerrand
Meow
MODEL X Design Studio is a big deal actually, because it has been promised in JULY. If this statement proves false expect more carnage, as general market conditions suck right now (with good reason, IMO). If it were to go live, it would be a great catalyst for a sustained move upward going into earnings. I fear for my calls that Elon cares not for such things, which actually I appreciate. Tesla should be focused on product, and real product deadlines. Still, this is the world we live in.
Krugerrand
Meow
No, it was not 'promised'. Seriously, people need to read the dictionary now again for the real meaning of words. (General comment, not directed entirely or solely to taxila.)
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Krug,
You are correct. Let me rephrase: Market sentiment / belief is that Model X Design Studio was promised in July. Model X design studio not delivered as such will be punished by market and spun as yet another X delay. In the long term this will mean nothing. My weekly calls OTOH...
Interesting article on the deal between Tesla and San Diego Unified School District
Tesla to build batteries for Escondido schools | SanDiegoUnionTribune.com
Unfortunately the numbers are too broad for anything other than a SWAG, but
1500kw-hrs spread among three high schools
$300,000 in annual savings to school district
$2m - $8m in estimated cost
Some sort of 50%/ 50% financing deal between Tesla and california SGIP
That puts payback (assuming no additional rate increases in the future) in range of 7 to 30 years. I would guess that payback would be faster if concentrated at one site (assuming high enough use) as the project cost would be lower
Also interesting that this was put out by the school and Tesla itself isn't commenting. Will be interesting to see what is disclosed on the energy business.
Tesla to build batteries for Escondido schools | SanDiegoUnionTribune.com
Unfortunately the numbers are too broad for anything other than a SWAG, but
1500kw-hrs spread among three high schools
$300,000 in annual savings to school district
$2m - $8m in estimated cost
Some sort of 50%/ 50% financing deal between Tesla and california SGIP
That puts payback (assuming no additional rate increases in the future) in range of 7 to 30 years. I would guess that payback would be faster if concentrated at one site (assuming high enough use) as the project cost would be lower
Also interesting that this was put out by the school and Tesla itself isn't commenting. Will be interesting to see what is disclosed on the energy business.
Krugerrand
Meow
And as such all those people who don't understand basic English words should be given a dictionary for their next birthday, Christmas, or other gift giving holiday - whichever comes first. :wink:
If that happens, I'm placing a significant amount of blame on a number of people on this forum, who have perpetuated this promised July fantasy. (Nope, not talking about you. They know who they are.) A lot of information is picked up here by the media and flogged about.
Interesting that Solar City was green today. I wonder how much of that $140 billion is being made available to Tesla and Solar City? :smile: TEN9?
Calum Worthy Supports TEN10 from Tesla Founder Elon Musk
Companies to Pledge $140 Billion in Efforts to Cut Carbon Emissions - WSJ
Also, according to Bloomberg, $140 Billion is only a portion of what will be pledged.
Additionally:
Interestingly, Bank of America is pledging to make $75 Billion available through lending and other types of financing in addition to the $50 billion it has already pledged. Sounds exactly like the type of thing that would be very beneficial for Solar City.
Maybe Obama will allow companies to repatriate foreign cash, tax free, as long as the cash is only used to invest in projects that will reduce carbon emissions?
Calum Worthy Supports TEN10 from Tesla Founder Elon Musk
Companies to Pledge $140 Billion in Efforts to Cut Carbon Emissions - WSJ
Also, according to Bloomberg, $140 Billion is only a portion of what will be pledged.
Additionally:
Interestingly, Bank of America is pledging to make $75 Billion available through lending and other types of financing in addition to the $50 billion it has already pledged. Sounds exactly like the type of thing that would be very beneficial for Solar City.
Maybe Obama will allow companies to repatriate foreign cash, tax free, as long as the cash is only used to invest in projects that will reduce carbon emissions?
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ludicrousspeed
Member
Couldn't agree more. I was saying this exact thing over the weekend and now after today, we've experienced four separate trading days with a 4%+ drop in the last three weeks alone. I'm a huge long term Tesla Bull but investors will experience a ton of volatility for the next few years until the company can produce consistent and growing profits.
:wink: I was just thinking the same thing...maturing company with less volatility....yeah, right!
My pre ER/CC plan now went to plan B. Plan A was having a big run up to $280-285 area where I would sell a few trading shares and buy a couple of protective puts. I thought that was going to happen. Enter plan B: As the knives were falling I was grabbing 260/270 and 300 calls Aug 14 and 21s. I missed some knives but keep adding 2-3 contracts at a time as we dropped. The 260s are even, the 270 ill, the 300s on life support.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
I've believed for a long time that volatility will persist until Model 3 is clearly selling well.
Right now, Tesla has to prove that it is more than a "one hit wonder". I believe they can succeed, but many in the markets are not convinced and won't be for a long time.
Interesting. Wonder if it's true and what the impact would be tomorrow.
Tesla Model 3, To Be Revealed In March, Might Have 300-Mile Range: Report
Tesla Model 3, To Be Revealed In March, Might Have 300-Mile Range: Report
I don't know, Elon's words about the configurator and July seemed pretty solid for me.
In either case, the lack of transparency hurts, and most of the market interprets things like Model X mules out on the roads two months before deliveries, no ability to configure MX at such a short timeframe as well as negative signs or impending signs of a botched MX release. A poor MX release could very easily mute Tesla's stock growth for several months and bring valuation more down to earth in line with fundamentals.
China is a factor, but keep in mind that Nasdaq didn't even drop more than 1% today and I think the sentiment on Tesla in China was already extremely bearish due to worse than expected growth. I don't really see any substantial news that would have caused such a drop, other than just general investor sentiment and worry over Tesla not being able to perform with the upcoming MX launch.
Eloder....IMO, the TSLA drop was more because of the Apple/BMW story coupled with some triggering of some stop loss orders in the $250 range. I would expect (hope) that investors/fund managers might look at this as a buy point prior to ER
Edit: There is a claim in this note after hours that it GE's entry into energy storage that caused the drop: I am not so sure but post it for review,
http://www.thestreet.com/story/1323...-on-weak-forecast.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO
Edit: There is a claim in this note after hours that it GE's entry into energy storage that caused the drop: I am not so sure but post it for review,
http://www.thestreet.com/story/1323...-on-weak-forecast.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO
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