Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[TSLAopt]

Interesting. Wonder if it's true and what the impact would be tomorrow.

Tesla Model 3, To Be Revealed In March, Might Have 300-Mile Range: Report

this is a big deal in my opinion...whether it gets picked up by Wall Street tomorrow or in a few days/weeks when it gets re-reported by WSJ or the Financial Times is something I'm not sure about.

i will guess that today's drop is mostly from high net worth Chinese investors/gamblers in TSLA being flushed out after the Shanghai drop.

 

[dmunjal]

this is a big deal in my opinion...whether it gets picked up by Wall Street tomorrow or in a few days/weeks when it gets re-reported by WSJ or the Financial Times is something I'm not sure about.

i will guess that today's drop is mostly from high net worth Chinese investors/gamblers in TSLA being flushed out after the Shanghai drop.

Here's the original article dated 7/23. I'm starting to see it in other auto sites.

Tesla Model 3 to be revealed in March 2016 | Autocar

No real source. Just speculation right now.

 

[Krugerrand]

I don't know, Elon's words about the configurator and July seemed pretty solid for me.

Except, what part of 'there will be no X reveal before the first deliveries' do people not understand? That's pretty transparent to me. The first deliveries being the Founder vehicles and perhaps the first handful of Sigs.

 

[eloder]

Except, what part of 'there will be no X reveal before the first deliveries' do people not understand? That's pretty transparent to me. The first deliveries being the Founder vehicles and perhaps the first handful of Sigs.

I'm just not sure how they plan to have a 2-4 week delivery gap between the first deliveries, and every other delivery after that who had to configure before Tesla's build-to-order style of car-making could be accomplished. Also not sure how Sigs can take delivery without configuring/building the car.

A configurator is not a reveal, but by its very nature it it has to give a lot more information about the Model X than what we know now--this is why a lot of people (and, in my opinion at least, wall street) is putting a lot of weight on the July configurator date whether or not that was Musk's original intent with that statement. I just don't forsee every Model X reservation holder configuring under NDA and every single one holding that information to heart with no leaks whatsoever.

 

[doggusfluffy]

I'm just not sure how they plan to have a 2-4 week delivery gap between the first deliveries, and every other delivery after that who had to configure before Tesla's build-to-order style of car-making could be accomplished. Also not sure how Sigs can take delivery without configuring/building the car.

A configurator is not a reveal, but by its very nature it it has to give a lot more information about the Model X than what we know now--this is why a lot of people (and, in my opinion at least, wall street) is putting a lot of weight on the July configurator date whether or not that was Musk's original intent with that statement. I just don't forsee every Model X reservation holder configuring under NDA and every single one holding that information to heart with no leaks whatsoever.

Well, for one thing couldn't they make a small fleet of demo cars which will ultimately be for display in showrooms, test drives and loaners?

 

[Auzie]

i will guess that today's drop is mostly from high net worth Chinese investors/gamblers in TSLA being flushed out after the Shanghai drop.

I would be very surprised if there were any substantial number of Chinese (mainland) investors in TSLA. Language barrier is huge for Chinese investors. Unless they invest blind, which is possible.

I would also expect some regulatory barriers that would relate to the ability of Chinese citizens to have offshore accounts. These barriers are likely to stop the average Chinese mainland investor from direct offshore investing. My guess is that the majority invest in the local markets.

Many Chinese investors invest in offshore real estate, that is easier to understand than offshore stocks.

The whole market was down today because china had their worst stock market day since 2007. I'm sure that's most of the reason for today.

I second this.

The situation is quite difficult for experienced regulators to contain and control, it is doubly difficult for inexperienced ones. In favour of Chinese regulators, they have more power at their disposal than the average western regulators, but that could be double edge sword if applied.

It makes me nervous watching the meltdown, mainly because of my view that the bursting of the Chinese market bubble is not market overreaction, it is more likely overdue correction.

US market may be overreacting at the moment, however if the cooling down of Chinese economy translates into reduced overall economic activities, then anything is possible.

 

[doggusfluffy]

I would be very surprised if there were any substantial number of Chinese (mainland) investors in TSLA. Language barrier is huge for Chinese investors. Unless they invest blind, which is possible.

I would also expect some regulatory barriers that would relate to the ability of Chinese citizens to have offshore accounts. These barriers are likely to stop the average Chinese mainland investor from direct offshore investing. My guess is that the majority invest in the local markets.

Many Chinese investors invest in offshore real estate, that is easier to understand than offshore stocks.



I second this.

The situation is quite difficult for experienced regulators to contain and control, it is doubly difficult for inexperienced ones. In favour of Chinese regulators, they have more power at their disposal than the average western regulators, but that could be double edge sword if applied.

It makes me nervous watching the meltdown, mainly because of my view that the bursting of the Chinese market bubble is not market overreaction, it is more likely overdue correction.

US market may be overreacting at the moment, however if the cooling down of Chinese economy translates into reduced overall economic activities, then anything is possible.

This may not be the best link, and I'm only guessing but maybe the Chinese central bank was unloading some of it's new burden perhaps?

Chinas central bank to fund margin finance agency in latest stock market bailout bid | South China Morning Post

 

[Auzie]

This may not be the best link, and I'm only guessing but maybe the Chinese central bank was unloading some of it's new burden perhaps?

Chinas central bank to fund margin finance agency in latest stock market bailout bid | South China Morning Post

Thanks for the link. It seems that CCB will try to pump money into the market, to support some players. That may translate into local currency devaluation and further relative strengthening of USD.

 

[schonelucht]

1500kw-hrs spread among three high schools
$300,000 in annual savings to school district
$2m - $8m in estimated cost

I don't like these numbers. That's between $1500 and $3000 per kWh, which is way above prices we usually hear about Tesla's battery storage programs. Hopefully the extra cost is due to this being a pilot program and not a real commercial roll out.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Except, what part of 'there will be no X reveal before the first deliveries' do people not understand? That's pretty transparent to me. The first deliveries being the Founder vehicles and perhaps the first handful of Sigs.

A configuration website could easily be implemented to hide how certain aspects of the car look or operate.

 

[Hogfighter]

A configuration website could easily be implemented to hide how certain aspects of the car look or operate.

I could totally see Tesla reaching out to the first 100-200 X purchasers and have them configure without launching the design studio. That's completely something they would do.

We're looking at you, Bonnie.....

 

[mrdoubleb]

I could totally see Tesla reaching out to the first 100-200 X purchasers and have them configure without launching the design studio. That's completely something they would do.

We're looking at you, Bonnie.....

The question is why would they do that? Why the secrecy? I understand they don`t want others to copy them, but these cars should be rolling off the assembly line in 2 months - not 2 years. Fine, they want to do the first batch of 100-200 to founders or early sigs in the Bay area to collect feedback, improve build quality before they crank it up to 1000 cars per week. But, why are they hiding the final interior/exterior so close to mass production?

Hopefully we will find out more in the ER or during the call. If we don`t get some good answers and the design studio is still not up by then, TSLA may suffer for the short term.

 

[jhm]

Let's keep in mind that the most import issue in how the Model X is launched is the customer experience. Musk wants to surprise and delight customers. I believe this motivate many of Tesla moves around timing and communication. While this may not satify the market's desire to meet timetables and know stuff, shareholder concerns really are quite secondary. When customers are surprised and delighted, the order will roll in and the stock will rise to new heights. So I encourage investors just to chill out and trust the process.

 

[Johan]

For perspective:

"Volkswagen (OTCQX:VLKAY) surpassed Toyota (NYSE:TM) to become the biggest automaker by global vehicle sales for January-June, the first time the German automaker has come out on top in the intensely competitive tallies.
Toyota said it sold 5.02M vehicles in the first half, trailing the 5.04M that Volkswagen reported earlier this month."

Still a ways to go. But growth beats volume for investors.

 

[jhm]

For perspective:

"Volkswagen (OTCQX:VLKAY) surpassed Toyota (NYSE:TM) to become the biggest automaker by global vehicle sales for January-June, the first time the German automaker has come out on top in the intensely competitive tallies.
Toyota said it sold 5.02M vehicles in the first half, trailing the 5.04M that Volkswagen reported earlier this month."

Still a ways to go. But growth beats volume for investors.

Tesla could be right up there with 10M sales in 2027.

 

[Johan]

Tesla could be right up there with 10M sales in 2027.

The beauty of compound growth.

AKA BFGT (blind faith growth target)

 

[Hogfighter]

The question is why would they do that? Why the secrecy? I understand they don`t want others to copy them, but these cars should be rolling off the assembly line in 2 months - not 2 years. Fine, they want to do the first batch of 100-200 to founders or early sigs in the Bay area to collect feedback, improve build quality before they crank it up to 1000 cars per week. But, why are they hiding the final interior/exterior so close to mass production?

Hopefully we will find out more in the ER or during the call. If we don`t get some good answers and the design studio is still not up by then, TSLA may suffer for the short term.

My belief is that they are delaying the reveal because they don't want to cannibalize orders from the S before they can deliver the X. Now that would be bad for us shareholders.

 

[aznt1217]

My belief is that they are delaying the reveal because they don't want to cannibalize orders from the S before they can deliver the X. Now that would be bad for us shareholders.

Not everybody wants an SUV... yet?

 

[Cattledog]

My belief is that they are delaying the reveal because they don't want to cannibalize orders from the S before they can deliver the X. Now that would be bad for us shareholders.

Absolutely this. Once the design and production delays pushed this from early 2015 to mid 2015 to now late 2015 (my paraphrasing, not an Elon interpretation), the risk grew of jolting the system of Model S orders/production.

We also have to remember they are trying to bring a new model up (X), and new production line online (Line 2) and essentially increase production by >50% to go from approx. 22K 1st half to 33K 2nd half of 2015. And that may really mean double production in Q4 if Q3 only does 11-12K Model S (we'll know at 3rd quarter guidance during the call). Quite the trifecta.

 

[AlMc]

Absolutely this. Once the design and production delays pushed this from early 2015 to mid 2015 to now late 2015 (my paraphrasing, not an Elon interpretation), the risk grew of jolting the system of Model S orders/production.

We also have to remember they are trying to bring a new model up (X), and new production line online (Line 2) and essentially increase production by >50% to go from approx. 22K 1st half to 33K 2nd half of 2015. And that may really mean double production in Q4 if Q3 only does 11-12K Model S (we'll know at 3rd quarter guidance during the call). Quite the trifecta.

Piggybacking off this thought. To keep demand for the S up AND to test out new or refined products that will go into the X we have seen AWD, some degree of DA, and now a larger battery pack. It is above my pay grade to decide how to launch the design studio and start production of the X without interfering with S demand. TM is doing a good job so far, IMO, as they will continue producing ONLY the S on line 1 and only X on line #2 as they ramp line #2. They are using some demand levers for the S, Billion Mile Events, traveling galleries (the Hamptons for the rest of the summer) and 'ludi mode'.