We are still 1 month away from Q4 ER. Short term is very bearish for the following weeks before ER. With technically broken such big way, I would expect only a decisive ER or Model X reveal can reverse the stock trend. I'm neutural or slightly negative to Q4 ER:
1) ASP might be high but will be negated by delivery miss, so it's neutural at the best;
2) Model X launch still in Summer, 6 months away, neutural;
3) 2015 Guidance, it could be surprisingly negative just like the NAIAS hope we had until yesterday;
I see your point, and I looooove going into QR with low expectations, the trend for this stock has always been buy when sentiments are overall negative, sell when it's euphoric. Right now, it's pretty darn negative There is no such thing as "technicals" when it comes to investing, otherwise everyone will be going to "technical schools," buying "technical books" and making millions left and right. The term "technical" was adopted as a sales pitch to validate BS spilled by analysts who work from 9-5, if technicals were true, analysts would be at home on their computers making millions on "technicals." Names given to trends set by "technical analysis" is the oldest sales pitch in the book. Names are given to objects to boast value, marketing and validity, such as cars, which are given names (i.e. Like Escalade, just because it sounds cool), every sellable object can be given a name: Sony "Trinitron," Nike "air" Jordan's, etc., and the term "technicals" are no different. A "cup and handle" is only one if it forms, and if it doesn't play out, what do you call it? The technicals you refer to can be broken, sentiments can reverse on a dime (like yesterday), investors who sold at $230 now sees $190s as attractive, those who sold at $280s sees this as a bargain, while shorts who shorted at $189 sees it going lower, it's all perception, and the lower this stock goes, the higher probability it'll reverse. A seasoned investor will buy more on dips, so long as the story doesn't change.
Yesterday was a bear attack from the get go, before Elon even took the podium articles were already published about China being down, the stock immediately dropped (before Elon spoke a word). Keep in mind that the bulk of model S orders and deliveries has never been China, it has always been the US. If one uses the argument that Elon calls it how it is, take this into consideration: when the stock was at $280s he called it overvalued.. yet, does it make any sense to not trust him on charging issues related to China? From the get go, we've had issues with chargers in China. I believe it may have been you Maoing that posted picture of Chinese customers getting creative with charger installations (just look at earlier post in the China section and you can easily see some pictures).
A decisive QR will shoot this stock way up, but not too many in their right mind is expecting this, especially after a bear attack like yesterday/today. Yes there may be individuals who hope for this, but don't assume that this constitutes the majority by reading a few posts on this forum.
1. At this point a miss has already been priced in, 500-1000 is expected and welcome after yesterday's comment on China... Higher ASP will be a bonus.
2. Model S is at least 6 months away, which means its on time. This is in fact the biggest news, and a reveal may be 3-4 months away, while a tweet or invitation to see X may arrive even sooner. The market is always forward looking, and hence places it's bets accordingly. You must realize that many investors are placing their bets on Tesla's success on Gen 3, which is for 2017-2018 timeframe, 6 months wait for X is nothing.
3. Yes there is a slim chance that guidance can be negative, but highly unlikely, given demand has grown in North America and Europe (as stated by Elon). The NAIAS event yesterday was in fact positive, as has been discussed by many members here and the only negative was China, which will be fixed. Yes, there may have been individuals who hoped to see X yesterday, and gotten burned, but if you were betting your money short term on yesterday's event, or relying on a QR, you're basically gambling and will eventually get burnt anyway. IMO yesterday's pullback was unnecessary and the more time that eclipses, will only allow yesterday's information to sink in. This was the first time I've heard Elon mention "millions" of cars by 2025, they are already thinking that far ahead... 2015 will most likely be a great year, unless X gets delayed. I would not want to be sitting with 25 million + shorts when the price is this low and Elon this confident.
